Best-Case Scenarios for the Most Needy NBA Teams of the 2016 Offseason
Some NBA teams need to absolutely, positively, non-negotiably win the 2016 offseason.
These squads are not limited only to those that missed the playoffs. The most needy franchises are those that must make a leap, implement wholesale changes or champion a certain rebuilding approach for next season to be considered an unequivocal success.
The Denver Nuggets, for example, are not painted as desperate solely because they haven't inhaled playoff air since 2013. And the Dallas Mavericks are not teetering on the brink just because they have thus far failed to capitalize on Dirk Nowitzki's financial sacrifices.
Each of the following teams are in more dire straits, pining after measurable progress that demands they have the best summers imaginable.
Honorable Mentions
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Los Angeles Clippers
Injuries bilked the Los Angeles Clippers of their postseason livelihood, and knee-jerk reactions demand that coach and president Doc Rivers break up his Big Three of Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Chris Paul. But despite copping to that stance ahead of this season, Rivers doesn't sound ready to fold his present hand.
"You can see it, you can feel it [when a team grows stale]," he told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck. "I don't feel that way with our team yet."
Indeed, it's difficult to count the Clippers among the Association's most needy right now. Their three best players remain in their primes, and they are guaranteed to flirt with 55-plus victories and a top-three playoff seed at full strength. Even their bench isn't an unmitigated disaster anymore. The second unit ranked in the top half of offensive and defensive efficiency this year, according to HoopsStats.com.
Any changes they make can be justifiably wholesale after failing to escape the first round for the second time in four years. But they can also stand relatively pat without facing too much backlash.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies aren't needy.
Should they be? Absolutely. But that's a different issue.
If they wanted to bury the Grit 'n' Grind era, they wouldn't have re-signed Marc Gasol last summer. And they most definitely wouldn't be hell-bent on re-signing Mike Conley this year.
Infusing some spacing all over the floor is a must. But the Grizzlies' best-case scenario after tethering themselves tighter to their longstanding identity stops there.
Washington Wizards
Kevin Durant's impending free agency actually makes the Washington Wizards less needy. They no longer must sit and wait, remaining mostly idle, biding time and cap space. And that increases their curb appeal by default.
Washington has already hired new head coach Scott Brooks and, after delaying Bradley Beal's new contract, still has a chance to make a splash in free agency. The Wizards may be on the outskirts of the Durant sweepstakes following a failed playoff bid, but signing him is not a necessity.
Arming themselves with a fresh face on the sidelines, an established superstar in John Wall and oodles of cap space is their best-case scenario.
Chicago Bulls: Rebuilding for Real
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Say you're the Chicago Bulls' front office. You've just missed clinching a playoff berth for the first time since 2007-08. Your roster is a mixture of budding prospects, aging veterans, an outmoded Derrick Rose and one legitimate superstar in Jimmy Butler.
What should you do next?
Rebuild, swiftly and sweepingly, without regard for the now-antiquated title hopes of a core clearly past its expiration date.
To some, including general manager Gar Forman, that may mean embracing a roster purge of epic proportions—a thorough overhaul that claims even Butler. As Forman said on this exact subject, per Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin:
"We've got to take a look at everything. We've got to explore all options, and I don't think there's anything that's off the table when you have a disappointing year like this. With that said, obviously Jimmy has had a fantastic year. From where he was to where he's gotten to, he's become a very, very valuable player for us.
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Trading Butler isn't the answer. Though he labored through left knee issues during the regular season, Butler is only 26 years old and locked up through at least 2018-19 on a max deal that will look like a steal in the new salary-cap climate. With him, Bobby Portis and perhaps Doug McDermott, the Bulls have three young(ish) pieces to headline a ground-up reinvention.
Parting ways with free agents Pau Gasol (player option) and Joakim Noah while testing the trade values of Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and Rose should be the priority. Chicago needs to reboot its arsenal of picks and prospects, and cleansing the nucleus of more advanced assets instantly drums up the value of its 2017 first-rounder.
Committing to a reset one year after being hailed as the biggest threat to the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers isn't ideal. But it sure beats perpetuating the illusion that this Bulls team, as currently constituted, is a free-agent draw and/or capable of more than fringe playoff contention.
Houston Rockets: Chemical Reincarnation
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Through all the losses and rumors, the Houston Rockets maintained that they were fine—that their record and (apparent) effort level were not a reflection of who they were on or off the court. They were capable of more, so much more, and just weren't playing well.
If you're not buying Houston's 2015-16 implosion as some sort of untimely fluke, fear not. You're not alone. Nor should you be.
The Rockets are a chemically imbalanced house of cards assembled around a dizzying tornado that, as Jonathan Feigen wrote for the Houston Chronicle, has a zero percent chance of surviving the offseason:
"[General manager Daryl] Morey disputed the depiction of the Rockets' chemistry problems, saying that they were no greater than is typical when teams play badly and that the chemistry was no worse this season than it was good with the same players last season. But anyone privy to all those team meetings could describe dysfunction that will have to be addressed. Next season’s coach will have to demand or inspire that kind of change and likely will have to convince Morey, Rockets owner Leslie Alexander and CEO Tad Brown that he can turn the Rockets into a team built to win in the postseason.
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While Jeff Van Gundy is still expected to headline Houston's head coaching wish list, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, there is no shortage of well-respected candidates who add instant order to a chaotic substructure. San Antonio Spurs assistant Ettore Messina, University of Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie and Indiana Pacers coach/soon-to-be-free-agent Frank Vogel all qualify as stabilizing forces. Snagging any one of them would be a much-needed victory.
Beyond finding a steadying sideline stalker, though, the Rockets need better leadership from the roster itself. Trevor Ariza and Jason Terry don't provide enough of a veteran impetus; James Harden, per Stein, lacks fundamental the faculties; and Dwight Howard is a cultural contaminant.
No one expects Howard to stay after he declines his player option anyway, and Houston shouldn't entertain his return. Dysfunction has followed him everywhere, from Orlando to Los Angeles to Houston, even if it wasn't immediate.
The ideal, sans-Durant offseason will also consist of the Rockets spending cap space to upgrade the perimeter defense while cutting bait with Corey Brewer's deal. Adding another playmaker to help diminish Harden's offensive usage is of equal importance.
Kent Bazemore, Nicolas Batum and Evan Turner should top their list of prospective targets. Chasing could-be reserve gems like Bismack Biyombo (player option), Allen Crabbe (restricted), Courtney Lee and Deron Williams (player option) will help beef up a bench that ranked in the bottom three of offensive and defensive efficiency this year, according to HoopStats.com.
Landing another star to pair with Harden would be great. But rounding out the roster with corresponding personalities and balanced depth must take precedence if the Rockets plan on regaining title-contender status.
Los Angeles Lakers: Ditching the Hollywood Stereotype for Good
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We are setting the best-case bar low for the Los Angeles Lakers. No, this is not an accident. Yes, this is Magic Johnson's fault.
"Laker Nation: The first free agent the Lakers should go after is Kevin Durant," the Hall of Famer and Lakers legend tweeted. "Laker Nation: The Lakers should call LeBron James' agent. We know he's going [to] stay in CLE, but they should go after him just in case he leaves."
Talk like this has to stop. Johnson's sentiments aren't necessarily reflective of the Lakers' thinking. And, true to typical form, they're obvious—he Lakers will consider signing Durant or James (player option) if either gives an inkling he wants to don purple and gold, because they (presumably) don't hate winning games.
But Johnson's long-shot desires are too familiar. Even his down-to-earth suggestions—DeMar DeRozan—are unsettling. Throw in Fox Sports talking head Colin Cowherd hearing from "two separate sources" that the Lakers will unload their draft pick even if it's the top selection, and you start to suffer from painful pangs of offseason deja vu.
This franchise has peddled the notion of free-agent coups up and down the streets of Los Angeles for long enough. The Lakers can carve out two max-contract slots, and that's valuable. But they cannot bank on overnight reincarnation.
James definitely isn't coming; Durant isn't bolting for Hollywood, either.
And there isn't anything to be gleaned from maxing out, say, DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside. Pairing those two is shortsighted and, well, stupid. Then again, pursuing expensive talents who don't complement one another and only stand to stunt the development of incumbent kiddies always is.
The Lakers have a clear foundation in Jordan Clarkson (restricted), Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell. They have another potential cornerstone en route, assuming they retain their top-three-protected pick. And they have aced their first post-Kobe Bryant obstacle, trading in the archaic Byron Scott for the progressive Luke Walton.
Nothing should be done to compromise the Lakers' current position. Any free agents they pitch must be conducive to the long game and the development of their basketball fledglings. So if they enter next season after handing monstrous deals to mid-end acquisitions and voluntarily trading whomever they draft, the Lakers will have failed in a big way.
New Orleans Pelicans: Star Sidekick
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Neither Tyreke Evans nor Jrue Holiday can be the second-best player on a title contender. Ryan Anderson, an unrestricted free agent this summer, doesn't fit that bill, either.
And after missing the playoffs as their win total dropped by 15, the New Orleans Pelicans desperately need someone who does.
Anthony Davis is good enough to headline a championship team now. He is just 23 and averaging 17 absences per season since entering the NBA. But 20-point, 10-rebound, one-steal, two-block superhumans don't grow on trees. They're not even readily available via illicit underground Mars laboratory experiments.
Only Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson have ever cleared 20 points, 10 rebounds, one steal and two blocks per 36 minutes through their first four years while matching Davis' field-goal percentage. And Davis, unlike his Hall of Fame sibs, is now dabbling in three-point shooting.
New Orleans can ill afford to continue wasting more of his prime. This offseason needs to be about reconfiguring the deck without consigning the franchise to another lottery finish.
The Pelicans will have a top-seven pick that could yield another cornerstone, preferably on the perimeter. But to really win the offseason, they'll need to enter the running for high-end free agents.
Offloading the remaining four years and nearly $44 million on Omer Asik's pact gets them max-contract flexibility. Moving him may be too ambitious, even under the new salary cap, but dumping the final season of Evans' deal, along with the assumed departures of Anderson and Eric Gordon, pushes them into max territory as well.
Signing Durant with that money is out of the question. But the Pelicans, with a healthy Davis, will be appealing enough to the Batums and Al Horfords of free agency. They can even look to package the player they draft in a deal for a star on the chopping block—though unloading top-tier first-rounders isn't recommended for a team that must balance rebuilding with competing.
New York Knicks: Effectively Juggling Present with Future
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A strong frontcourt setup is just about the only thing the New York Knicks have going for them. They don't have a draft pick, their point guard situation is a mess, and team president Phil Jackson has yet to prove his commitment to the organization transcends his obsession with validating the outdated triangle offense.
Any productive offseason starts with Jackson distancing himself from that fixation. Naming someone other than Kurt Rambis as the team's head coach would be a big-enough win. David Blatt is a genuine possibility, according to the Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring, but that's about the extent of Jackson's coaching dive.
In a perfect/logical world, Carmelo Anthony would also be back on the team. He will be 32 next season, but he just wrapped up the most unselfish season of his career and emerged as an invaluable mentor to Kristaps Porzingis.
Surrounding Anthony and Porzingis with strong complementary weapons allows the Knicks to better juggle the divergent paths of their stars. New York was minus-8.3 points per 100 possessions when both sat, per NBAwowy.com. Secondary contributors get Anthony help without forcing Porzingis to concede status.
Most of that assistance should come on the outside. The Knicks are set up front with Anthony, Robin Lopez and Porzingis but ranked in the bottom seven of backcourt defensive efficiency, according to HoopsStats.com. And while the answer at point guard won't be available this summer, New York can look to fill its rotation with multiposition wings who cover up for Jose Calderon.
Nic Batum, Kent Bazemore, Allen Crabbe, Evan Fournier (restricted), the incumbent Lance Thomas and perhaps Evan Turner are all viable options. Signing two of them ensures the Knicks are less reliant on the triangle working to perfection and more likely to forge a defensive identity.
Philadelphia 76ers: Starting a New Process Without Ruining the Old Process
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With former general manager Sam Hinkie now holed up in a military-grade submarine at the bottom of the Tonga Trench, crunching numbers for his next job interview, the Philadelphia 76ers are left to prove that upending his notorious Process was the right call.
That can't happen by putting too much distance between the Hinkie era and the new regime, which is led by recently instated general manager Bryan Colangelo and chairman of basketball operations Jerry Colangelo. As The Vertical's Bobby Marks cautioned:
"With cap space, a treasure chest of draft picks and some young building blocks, 76ers management needs to get in the business of hitting singles and doubles. Pushing chips to the middle of the table and going hunting for big names is not what Philadelphia should do. If that happens, the 76ers could be back to Square One in the rebuilding process.
The previous three seasons showed Philadelphia in asset-acquisition mode and not focused on improving the on-court product. The key for Philadelphia is finding that fine line to improve the basketball talent but not risk its key assets.
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Loosely translated: Philly better not max out Rajon Rondo and Dion Waiters.
Instead, the Sixers have to hope their league-worst record culminates in a top-two pick and the right to draft Duke's Brandon Ingram. They sorely need a first-rate wing who offers some respite from the frontcourt clump Hinkie assembled.
Speaking of which…Philly's clutter of bigs has—pardon my French—gots to go.
Joel Embiid should be making his NBA debut at some point next season and, like Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, is best suited at center. None of them should have to log time at power forward—in part because Dario Saric is expected to come stateside.
Flipping any combination of them for shooting or, more preferably, a starting-caliber point guard is the dream solution. From there, aside from hoping the Ping-Pong-ball gods give them the Lakers' first-round pick, the Sixers should spend on younger mid-end free agents who move the needle without entirely halting Hinkie's process.
Think along the lines of Bazemore or Crabbe, either one of whom would look good in Philly blue and red. Just saying.
Sacramento Kings: No More Kings-ing
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The Sacramento Kings' perfect offseason checklist is more extensive than most other to-do lists, so forgive us for skipping the pleasantries.
Here's what their ideal summer would include:
- Hire a coach DeMarcus Cousins doesn't despise
- Do not re-sign Rondo
- Get to keep the top-10-protected pick owed to Chicago
- Draft a two-way wing; Jaylen Brown or France's Timothe Luwawu will do
- Sign another two-way wing (but not Turner)
- Do not re-sign Rondo
- Trade Marco Belinelli and Kosta Koufos
- Resist urge to use 2022 first-round pick to trade Belinelli and Koufos
- Add a playmaking 4 via trade or free agency (Anderson, Mirotic, Ersan Ilyasova, Marvin Williams, etc.)
- Do not re-sign Rondo
- Re-sign Seth Curry (player option)
- Lose DeRozan's phone number
Should the Kings adhere to some version of this plan, they'll enter next season in a much more favorable position. And this doesn't mean they need to completely start over. Cousins, after all, is already a superstar but has yet to make a playoff appearance.
It just means they need to end the cycle of future-maiming offseasons that prioritize improbable low-level postseason berths over sustainable success.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
