Are Golden State Warriors Too Dependent on 3-Pointers Without Stephen Curry?

Though the date of Stephen Curry's eventual return from his latest injury is uncertain, one thing is crystal clear: The Golden State Warriors will need to forge ahead in the 2016 NBA playoffs without the aid of the superstar point guard who doubles as their best player.

Less clear: They can’t just rely on the three-point-shooting identity that has propelled them to so many wins and records. Lofting up one long-range attempt after another only works like that when Curry is in the lineup.

Both the remaining Splash Brother and the other snipers on this roster can keep firing away at reasonable rates. But Golden State will only survive its point guard’s absence if it resists the arc’s temptation and continues doing everything else that has made it successful—namely pounding the paint, generating easy attempts via excellent ball movement and locking down on defense.

After Curry went down in Game 4 of the Warriors' opening-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets, suffering what's now being reported as a Grade 1 MCL sprain, per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, the world was forced to hold its collective breath yet again. It had already witnessed the record-shattering floor general falling out of the lineup with an ankle issue, and this latest blow is significantly more severe. 

Whether Curry beats the initial timetable (he'll be re-evaluated in two weeks, per an official release from the Warriors) or rehabs for longer and misses part (or all) of the series against the Los Angeles Clippers/Portland Trail Blazers, Golden State will have to soldier on. And as Draymond Green explained to USA Today's Sam Amick after Curry slipped on a wet spot and fell victim to this injury, the margin for error dwindles without the 1-guard: 

"

Our margin for error without Steph is far less than what it is when he’s on the court, because he can make up so much on his own. He can draw so much attention that we get easier stuff. We know that. That’s one of the things we figured out when playing without him. That definitely raises a sense of urgency, because you know everything has to be spot-on.

"

During both the regular season and the playoffs, Curry has missed a grand total of five games. The results have been rather mixed, as you might expect for a team going to war without a player of such importance: 

1. Twenty-three-point loss to Dallas Mavericks on Dec. 30.
2. Four-point victory over the Houston Rockets on Dec. 31.
3. Four-point victory over the Atlanta Hawks on March 1.
4. Nine-point victory over the Houston Rockets on April 18.
5. One-point loss to the Houston Rockets on April 21.

A 3-2 record against a slate of playoff squads is nothing to be ashamed of, and that mark could even swell to 4-2 if we include the most recent outing.

When Curry went down just before halftime and walked to the locker room under his own power, the Rockets and Warriors were tied at 56. After another 24 minutes of action, the Dubs had taken a 3-1 lead in the series behind a dominant 65-38 second half, propelled by a record-setting number of threes. 

Now, on the heels of that 21-triple performance—only one of which came from the man who drilled 402 during the regular season—we have to wonder if the defending champions found a bit of fool's gold. They certainly can't count on knocking down so many long-range attempts, and it's important that Game 4 doesn't push them permanently beyond the three-point line.

Fortunately, this seems more like an aberration than an actual strategy—too many players caught fire during the second half of Sunday's outing, and there was quite simply no reason to stop shooting. 

During the regular season, the Warriors launched 26.9 three-pointers per 36 minutes when Curry was on the floor, per NBA.com's statistical databases. Factor out his personal contributions, and his teammates attempted 15.1 triples per 36 minutes and connected on 6.1 of them—good for a three-point percentage of 40.4 percent. 

Without him, the opposing defense breathes a little easier. It doesn't have to worry about shadowing him at all times, nor does it need to compress around him during his drives to the basket, thereby opening up more kick-out opportunities for his teammates drifting around the perimeter. 

When Curry wasn't on the court, Golden State took 16.2 three-pointers per 36 minutes and hit at a 37.5 percent clip. That's by no means an unimpressive figure, and it actually stacks up rather well with the rest of the league, as you can see below: 

The non-Curry Warriors (blue) are obviously in a class of their own when he's on the floor. During minutes that see him sitting (black), they're arguably the best in the league yet again. It's only when he's inactive (gold) that Golden State suddenly becomes an average shooting squad. 

There's nothing wrong with that. It's not as if the team has taken an exorbitant number of attempts. On the contrary, it's taken a reasonable amount, given the effectiveness with which it makes them—a factor no doubt influenced by the calm, consistent production of Shaun Livingston. 

"Shaun Livingston is a steadying force, and was fantastic all around (16 points on nine shots)," ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss wrote after Golden State's April 18 victory, which Curry sat out of to rest his balky ankle. "Maybe it's something about the way he gets the team set in its possessions that calms the Warriors when they fall into a rut. On second thought, it was probably his automatic mid-range attack."

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Just as Livingston always seems to do with his seemingly endless barrage of turnaround jumpers and cuts to the basket, the Warriors need to play to their strengths without Curry rather than jacking up countless treys. And as Matt Moore explained for CBS Sports, Klay Thompson also must take charge: 

"

If Curry is limited, or worse, out for any stretch of games, Thompson has to not only score for himself, but he has to take over in such a way as to free up the floor for his teammates. This would be very new territory for Thompson. He's spent the duration of his career hunting his own shot and nothing else. He's not a great passer. He's not a guy to take his opponent off the dribble. He's best moving, spotting up, cutting, catching opponents out of position on close outs, attacking the rim and finding gaps and pulling up in transition — a single-minded luxury he's afforded because of Curry's presence.

That would no longer be the case.

"

Make no mistake. They're still a competitive bunch with Green, Thompson and the rest of the deep rotation in working order, but it was Curry who turned the Warriors into a 73-win juggernaut that headed into the postseason as the prohibitive favorite to win a second consecutive title. 

Below, you can see the adjusted Four Factors on each side of the court without the reigning MVP—adjusted so that 100 is the equivalent of the league average and anything above is positive, similar to what we've done here with offensive rating:

When Curry isn't playing, the Warriors are better than average in only two areas: shooting and forcing the opposition into turnovers. It's everywhere else they need to improve, especially when looking at their ability to draw fouls and avoid those pesky cough-ups. 

Thompson, in particular, must focus on playing the right way. He began doing so in Game 2, as Strauss pointed out: "Thompson had 13 drives on Monday, three more than any game in the regular season. He was eager to attack from the start, and the Warriors needed that."

The shooting guard struggled with his perimeter stroke in the follow-up contest, but the Warriors hung around thanks to the efforts of everyone else, especially on the defensive end. It's a balance that must be struck on a regular basis, though by no means should it keep Thompson from taking advantage of his shooting ability when reasonable three-point opportunities open up. 

Thus far, the Warriors haven't been too dependent on their marksmanship without Curry in the lineup. And if they're going to survive while he sits out, that can't change in an ill-advised attempt to make up for his absence.

Keeping possession of the ball, locking down on the point-preventing end and successfully pushing the rock into the teeth of the opposing defense are far more important. The Warriors can survive Curry's expected absence of just two weeks, but refusing to abandon their principles and focusing on their weaknesses would likely put them in even better shape when the superstar returns to the court. 

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or Adam's databases.