Stock Up, Stock Down for Top 2016 NBA Free Agents: Stretch Run Edition
Let's trade some NBA free-agent stocks, shall we?
Our pool of candidates will be plucked from a previous ranking of the top 20 names. Max-contract locks and players who have no chance of leaving their current digs will be removed from consideration to ensure we're not overemphasizing the most obvious studs.
That leaves the rest of the field—high-end talent with unclear market values.
Stock reports will take into account the big picture. Recent stretches of excellence will matter, but we're looking at the overall value a player is yielding relative to the (most likely) monstrous payday he's speeding toward.
The Formalities
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DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors (player option)
DeMar DeRozan is expected to decline his player option for next season and explore free agency, at which point, according ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, multiple max offer sheets will be awaiting him.
This would come as a huge shock if it were, say, two or three years ago. But it's not two or three years ago.
DeRozan has improved his three-point stroke and joins Jimmy Butler and James Harden as the only shooting guards averaging at least 20 points, four rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. At just 26 years old, he should have no problem sussing out a max offer.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (player option)
If Tim Duncan leaves the San Antonio Spurs, it's because he's ready to retire.
Or because Tony Parker offended him by saying crepes are better than pancakes.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
You know what would be really, really, ridiculously stupid?
Pretending as if Kevin Durant isn't guaranteed a max contract.
This is the third time he's cleared 25 points, seven rebounds and four assists per game with a true shooting percentage better than 60. LeBron James is the only player with as many such seasons to his name.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (player option)
So this is what LeBron's off years look like, huh?
Though his shooting percentages outside three feet of the basket are ghastly, he ranks in the top five of player efficiency rating, box plus-minus (BPM) and win shares. There isn't a team in the NBA—or, for that matter, the NFL—that wouldn't offer him a max deal.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (player option)
Judging from Dirk Nowitzki's past actions, he won't even enter free agency this summer. He'll simply pick up his $8.7 million player option and let the Dallas Mavericks bask in their increased flexibility.
If he decides to hit the open market in search of a raise, the Mavericks will give it to him. He isn't leaving Dallas.
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Stephen Curry is more likely to miss 100 consecutive three-pointers than Dwyane Wade is to leave the Miami Heat.
Nevermind. I take that back. But Wade still isn't leaving Miami.
Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
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Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
Stock: ↓
It's difficult to argue against Harrison Barnes fielding a max-offer sheet in restricted free agency.
His numbers are solid for a No. 4 option. He is the only player averaging at least 14 points and two assists per 36 minutes with a usage rate south of 18, and his success on spot-up triples tops 39 percent.
There is real evidence that he could thrive in an expanded role, outside the shadows of Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. But Barnes' PER has dipped since last season, and he's posting the worst defensive box plus-minus (DBPM) of his career.
The Golden State Warriors have logged more minutes with him off the floor and are actually recording a higher net rating during that time. The offensive and defensive ratings of their starting lineup even improve when Brandon Rush is subbed in for Barnes.
This is not meant to imply that Barnes isn't important. Golden State's small-ball "Death Squad" doesn't exist without his ability to defend basically five positions. But he has failed to make a patented leap. And while that won't prevent him from earning max-contract consideration over the offseason, it does mean he's further away from deserving that kind of payday than initially expected.
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
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Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Stock: ↑
Don't laugh at the idea of Nicolas Batum signing a max deal. Your favorite team might be the one giving it to him.
Just three players, aside from Batum, are reaching 14 points, six rebounds and five assists per game: James Harden, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. Maybe you've heard of them.
Batum is a major reason why the Charlotte Hornets are hovering around the top 10 in points allowed per 100 possessions despite playing most of the season without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Batum has the size at 6'8" to defend power forwards and the length and the lateral celerity necessary to keep pace with 2s and 3s.
Charlotte does allow slightly more points with him on the hardwood, but most of his minutes have come beside Kemba Walker, who is still a defensive liability. Batum is part of the perimeter task force charged with providing help.
Rangy wings who can exist within strong defensive units are among the most coveted commodities in today's NBA. Batum's PER continues to duck the league average, but it's higher than it was last season, and it's not easy to find point forwards who can impact the game even when they're not dominating the ball.
On the heels of a 2014-15 campaign to forget with the Portland Trail Blazers, this has very much been a comeback year for Batum. And his next contract will reflect as much.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
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Age: 22
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
Stock: ↓
Bradley Beal hasn't done enough to help the Washington Wizards' playoff hopes. He is supposed to be the team's second superstar next to John Wall by now, and he's not.
Yes, his offensive numbers are insane. This is the third consecutive season in which he's averaged at least 15 points and 2.5 assists per game while making 38 percent of his triples. Curry and Durant are the only players doing the same.
But the Wizards are faring better when Beal is on the bench. He hasn't developed into a multidimensional wing who locks down on defense, and his individual production has next to no bearing on the team's offensive efficiency.
Almost 30 percent of Beal's field-goal attempts are coming from mid-range, where's he's shooting just 40 percent. He doesn't drive to the basket nearly enough for someone with the second-highest usage rate on his team, and too many of his looks are generated off pull-up jumpers, on which he fails to shoot even 40 percent.
Injuries and inconsistent minutes restrictions haven't helped Beal's cause, and his postseason numbers are flat-out absurd. But at some point we need to acknowledge that, relative to his assumed trajectory, he's falling behind schedule.
Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Stock: ↑
Mike Conley's stock is the most ambiguous of any high-profile free agent. He's on the shelf for another 3-4 weeks with nagging Achilles tendonitis, per the Memphis Grizzlies. And when healthy, his production is understated and constant, which can give the appearance of a player who has plateaued.
A star-stuffed point guard position drives Conley further down the NBA's totem pole. There are only a handful of teams that have a glaring need for a new starting 1, and it's unclear how many, if any, will view Conley, who has never piloted a top-10 offense, as max-contract material.
Still, Conley hasn't peaked. The Memphis Grizzlies don't ask him to assume the high-usage roles of other floor generals. His numbers are, in many respects, at the mercy of prominently featured bigs (Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph), and he does more for his team whenever the situations call for it.
Since Marc Gasol suffered a fractured right foot and before his own health issues, Conley was averaging 17.8 points and 6.1 assists on 48.1 percent shooting, including a 42.1 percent clip from downtown. And the impact his heightened role had during that time cannot be exaggerated:
| 111.7 | 2 | 105.5 | 20 | 6.2 | 4 | |
| 103.7 | 12 | 106.0 | 23 | -2.3 | 21 |
Even if a bulk of Memphis' improvements can be attributed to a shift in style without Gasol, it says a lot that Conley remains a pivotal aspect of whatever version of the Grizzlies is taking the floor. He's the type of player who will continue to thrive if he stays put, but is, at the same time, someone you can see making a transformative leap in another system—a true chameleon, fit to play anywhere.
Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 35
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Stock: ↑
Players on the wrong side of their 35th birthday, with 15 seasons and more than 41,000 minutes of wear and tear, shouldn't be owners of a skyrocketing free-agent stock.
Related: Pau Gasol is not most 35-year-olds.
The 7-footer is putting forth not just one of the best campaigns for someone his age, but also one of the best individual efforts in NBA history. Here's the complete list of players to hit 17 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks per game in the same season:
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (five times)
- Bob Lanier (twice)
- Tim Duncan
- Kevin Garnett
- Bob McAdoo
- Bill Walton
- Chris Webber
- Pau Gasol
Not one of those other players were older than 31 when they cooked this statistical stew.
Gasol ranks inside the top eight in PER and win shares among NBA big men. His BPM, meanwhile, is the third-best of that same group, putting him ahead of younger superstars like Al Horford and DeAndre Jordan—each of whom plays for a better team.
Jimmy Butler and Gasol are the lone Chicago Bulls players with above-board BPMs on both ends of the hardwood. The latter has even improved his defense a great deal. He isn't spry enough to chase around stretchy bigs, but he suffocates anyone who enters the paint.
Opponents are shooting just 45.4 percent against Gasol at the rim, despite the fact he's contesting more close-range looks per game than anyone else in the league. Chicago posts a net rating worse than the Minnesota Timberwolves when he's on the sidelines, and his PER is the highest of anyone on the team.
Father Time would have us believe it only gets worse for Gasol from here. And that may be true. But free-agency aggressors aren't looking at him as a savior or max-contract candidate.
Gasol's trip down Getting Older Lane is just way more disarming than it should be, and he'll be accordingly rewarded.
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 29
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Stock: ↑
We could easily tell you that Al Horford is one of the NBA's most complete players.
Actually, we don't even need to tell you. The list of names who, like him, are sustaining an offensive box plus-minus (OBPM) of at least 1.5 and DBPM of at least 2.4 does it for us: Green, James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul Millsap.
Here's the problem: Calling Horford one of today's most well-rounded talents sells him short.
He sports one of the most versatile styles in NBA history.
Horford is on pace to exceed 1,000 points, 250 assists, 100 blocks and 80 made three-pointers for the season. That's only ever been done three times—by three of the most versatile players ever: Durant (2012-13), Dwyane Wade (2008-09) and Lamar Odom (2000-01).
Each of those Swiss army knives, mind you, notched a usage rate of at least 24.1 (Odom) during his respective season. Horford's usage rate is more than three points lower (20.7).
Translation?
Get ready for Horford's $12 million salary to double in size.
Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
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Age: 30
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Stock: ↓
Dwight Howard is still good at basketball, just not as good as he once was.
Andre Drummond is the only other player scoring at least 15 points, collecting 12 rebounds and blocking 1.5 shots per game. And Howard is one of just five players averaging 1.5 blocks and one steal; he joins the ranks of Anthony Davis, Drummond, Derrick Favors and Nerlens Noel.
But the days of Howard serving as the backbone for a top-tier defense are over. Opponents are only shooting at slightly below-average clips when he's in the vicinity, and the Houston Rockets' turnstile defense improves by just 0.2 points per 100 possessions with him in tow.
The days of Howard aiding offensive missions, tenuous to begin with, are gone, too. There isn't much room left in the league for towers who can't shoot jumpers, aren't polished playmakers and struggle to score with their backs to the basket.
Howard has made just six shots outside eight feet of the hoop all season. His career assist percentage (7.5) is the second-worst of any NBA player in history to appear in the at least 862 games and record a usage rate of at least 23.2. Almost 30 percent of his offensive touches come as post-ups, but he fails to rank in the 45th percentile of points scored per possession.
Today's NBA, to be sure, hasn't passed by Howard. He is not the Rajon Rondo of big men. But he has a very specific skill set and is trying to survive in a league that values variety above else.
So while Howard is, per USA Today's Sam Amick, expected to seek a max deal in free agency, he isn't going to get one. His salary would climb above $30 million next season, and that pay grade is reserved exclusively for someone Howard just isn't anymore: a superstar.
Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks
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Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
Stock: ↓
If our focus lied solely with recent performances, Chandler Parsons' stock would be through the roof. He's averaging 18.5 points and 3.2 assists on 51.2 percent shooting, including a 44.3 percent showing from downtown, since the start of February.
Fantastic? Sure. But Parsons, who is already being paid like a franchise cornerstone, has yet to maintain this level of play for an entire season. His production has peaked since leaving Houston, and as Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News wrote, the Dallas Mavericks are still waiting on him to become a full-fledged star:
"Parsons has one thing that a big-time player needs: oodles of confidence. He believes he's a franchise player and wants that opportunity. The question is whether he will put in the time and effort to be that player. He did so to come back from surgery. But nobody will ever know the countless hours Nowitzki put in late at night and before practices working on his game.
He made himself every bit as good as his skills would allow him to be -- which was greatness. When Nowitzki was Parsons' age, he enjoyed the NBA lifestyle, too. He got serious about the time Steve Nash was let go in free agency and got even more focused. Seems about time for Parsons to do the same if he wants to be The Man and handle all the responsibilities that come with that distinction.
"
This is not a good concern to have for someone who, as Sefko noted, might command max money on the open market. And it doesn't help Parsons' case that the best version of Dallas' starting five excludes him.
In the 406 minutes Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, Zaza Pachulia, Parsons and Deron Williams have shared the floor, the Mavericks are outscoring opponents by 0.8 points per 100 possessions.
Swap out Parsons for Raymond Felton—Raymond Felton—and that lineup, in 255 minutes of spin, is outpacing enemy hoopers by 15.3 points per 100 possessions.
Make no mistake, Parsons produces like a fringe star and is going to get paid this summer. Much like when he signed with the Mavericks in 2014, it's just going to be for more money than his play has thus far earned.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
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Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Stock: ↑
Hassan Whiteside has officially dispelled the notion that his gaudy stat lines are empty. As Jared Dubin explained for Vice Sports:
"There's a reason Whiteside checks in as the second-best rim protector in the NBA by Nylon Calculus' Points Saved Per 36 Minutes, and it's not just because he blocks a bunch of shots. He also alters a ton and prevents many others from ever being taken at all.
Whiteside contests a greater percentage of shots at the basket than anyone in the league, and that alone is valuable. So while Whiteside might not be a DPOY-caliber guy or even All-Defense, people should probably chill with any "he's not even a good defender" chatter.
"
Some are still quick to cite the Heat allow fewer points per 100 possessions without Whiteside in the game. And though that's factually accurate, it's logistically invalid.
For starters, the difference between Miami's performance with and without Whiteside is negligible. Beyond that, he has been more valuable to the Heat's defense since the turn of the calendar than anyone.
Miami is holding opponents to 99.4 points per 100 possessions with him in the fold since Jan. 1. That number jumps to 103.2 when he sits. That's the difference between ranking third and 15th in defensive efficiency.
"I think for this team he has been our best player since the All-Star break," Wade said of Whiteside, per Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley. "A lot of credit goes to him for us even being in the position where we have won however many we have won since the break."
No kidding. Whiteside is posting 18.5 points, 15 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game this side of the Association's All-Star sabbatical. His block rate is now the highest the NBA has ever seen from anyone not named Manute Bol, and he's the first player since Hakeem Olajuwon to average 13 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks for an entire season.
In sum: Whiteside's bank account is about to add a ton of zeroes to its ledger.
Marvin Williams, Charlotte Hornets
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Age: 29
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
Stock: ↑
Marvin Williams has reinvented himself 11 years into his NBA career. Nobody does that.
His 39.2 percent knockdown rate from deep is a career best. Opponents are shooting an unbelievably low 45 percent at the rim against him, and according to Nylon Calculus, he is saving more points per 36 minutes at the iron than noted defensive studs Robin Lopez and Nerlens Noel.
Walker is the only Hornet who has collected more win shares, and no player has proved to be more valuable on the offensive end. Williams is splashing home 40-plus percent of his spot-up treys, stretching rival frontcourts in a way that clears lanes for Batum, Jeremy Lin and Walker. Charlotte, not surprisingly, fields what would statistically be a top-seven offense when he's part of the action.
“It gets back to the same thing; he’s playing well because of all the [offseason] work he did,” Hornets coach Steve Clifford said, per the Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell. “He had a great summer, putting himself in great physical condition. And the routine he does every day, he’s so committed and so on it, it’s not a surprise that he’s playing so well.”
Well, it's a little surprising when you consider just how ridiculously good Williams is playing.
Three players throughout NBA history have, as Williams is on track to do now, eclipsed 875 points, 550 rebounds, 80 blocks and 140 made three-balls during a single season. Their names?
Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate leading into games on March 11. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
