New York Giants Offseason Primer: What to Expect over the Next Few Weeks
As the last of the confetti from Super Bowl 50 is swept up, starting on Monday, the New York Giants will crank up their preparation for what’s sure to be a busy offseason.
The first order of business likely to hit the airwaves is an announcement regarding the completion of new head coach Ben McAdoo’s coaching staff. Although various rumors have been circling around since last month, the Giants have yet to release the full and official list—that should be coming within the next week or two.
The other points of business that must be addressed is what to do with the roster, an underperforming, injury-plagued roster that, after looking so promising on paper, fell apart at the seams.
The following slides outline what is facing the Giants' brass over the next few months. How these elements actually unfold still remains to be seen, but let’s jump right in and try to break it all down.
Trim the Fat off the Roster
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As of right now, Over the Cap has the Giants with an estimated $42.9 million in cap space, a number that they project could swell as high as $57.8 million.
Where is that $14.9 million likely to come from? The answer is from inflated contracts held by players who, for whatever the reason, have not yielded the desired return on investment.
Falling into this category are linebacker Jon Beason ($4.5 million savings) and offensive tackle Will Beatty ($6.68 million savings if designated as a post-June 1 transaction) to start.
Guard Geoff Schwartz ($2.99 million savings) is another possible cap casualty if the Giants decide that Bobby Hart can handle the right guard spot.
There are other possible contracts in danger of being lopped off, albeit not huge ones, such as offensive tackle Marshall Newhouse ($1.55 million savings).
Whatever the direction the Giants pursue with this, the first step of reshaping the roster should provide us with a good idea of the direction in which the team is likely to head come free agency.
Deflate Some of the Swollen Contracts
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The second step to determining which players a team wants to retain is targeting some of the swollen contracts of those players who potentially still have something to give but whose current cap figure makes them too heavy to carry.
Wide receiver Victor Cruz is the first such player who comes to mind. Per Over the Cap, Cruz, who has been away from the game for two seasons due to injuries, has the second-highest cap figure ($9.9 million) behind quarterback Eli Manning.
That’s certain to change, as Cruz will likely be asked to take a pay cut in 2016, receiving a revised contract in which his $7.9 million base salary will be slashed by more than half, with an opportunity to earn back some of that money through incentives tied into playing time and performance.
Running back Rashad Jennings, who is due a $2.23 million base salary as part of a $2.81 million 2016 cap figure, is another player who could be looking at having to take a cut if the Giants continue to insist on having a rotation.
On the other side of the coin, the Giants might also use this opportunity of abundant cap space to extend the deals of some of their key younger players who are coming up for renewal.
Without question, two such players who are part of the team’s foundation include offensive tackle Justin Pugh and defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins. Both players are entering the final year of their respective rookie deals.
Pugh is due to earn a $1.16 million base salary in 2016, all of which is guaranteed.
On the other hand, Hankins has a respectable $954,639 base salary. As he is coming off a pectoral injury, it might be worth opening a dialogue to see if he would be willing to accept a low base salary in the first year of his new deal that ultimately increases over the life of the contract.
Decide Which Unrestricted Free Agents to Keep
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According to Over the Cap, the Giants have 20 players set to become unrestricted free agents, of which only four—defensive end Robert Ayers, linebacker Jasper Brinkley, cornerback Prince Amukamara and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul—have played in at least 50 percent of the team’s snaps.
Let’s start with Ayers and Pierre-Paul. Ayers was the team leader in sacks with 9.5, but even with Pierre-Paul back on the field, following his return from a fireworks accident, the Giants pass rush was still non-existent.
As it would be surprising if the Giants invested big money on both players—Ayers is on the wrong side of 30, remember—the question the Giants must answer is whether they believe that Pierre-Paul’s permanently damaged right hand will ever come close to having the same functionality that it did before.
If the answer is no, then a bigger push will probably be made to re-sign Ayers to a shorter term contract while a younger player—Owa Odighizuwa (23 years old) or a draft pick—develops.
If the choice is 27-year-old Pierre-Paul, then it wouldn’t be surprising if the Giants let 30-year-old Ayers walk and add a draft pick that can become the third man in the mix with Pierre-Paul and Odighizuwa.
With the Giants expected to overhaul their linebacker position, Brinkley was actually one of the linebackers who performed consistently well enough to earn a new contract. Whether that contact is as a starter is another question—that will likely depend on what the Giants do in free agency and the draft, which I’ll discuss in upcoming slides.
Lastly is Amukamara, who poses a bit of a conundrum. Save for the 2013 season, Amukamara has been unable to make it through 16 games.
Injury aside, Amukamara has never really demonstrated that he’s a true shutdown cornerback. Per Pro Football Focus, his best season NFL Rating came in 2014, when he finished with a 58.2 rating in half a season before suffering a biceps injury that ended his season early.
Career-wise, Amukamara, who has given up nine career touchdowns while picking off just seven passes, is at an 84.2 rating. While that rating is not horrible, it probably isn’t worth the big money he’s likely to pursue if he hits the open market.
To further put things into perspective, in 2015, Amukamara finished with a 93.0 NFL rating while Trumaine McBride finished with a 99.4. If there was not that much of a difference between a starter and a reserve cornerback in regards to performance, how then can the Giants justify shelling out big money to Amukamara?
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Identify Prospective Free Agents from Other Teams
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Once the Giants identify where the holes on the roster exist, the next step is to identify which free agents from other teams are a potential fit both in terms of monetary value and skill set.
Here’s of course where it becomes tricky to predict as between now and the start of free agency next month, some of these projected free agents could end up re-signing with their current teams. Still, let’s briefly look at where the likely roster holes are and who might be a fit to fill them.
The first is obviously safety. The Giants are probably not going to re-sign Brandon Meriweather or Craig Dahl (nor should they). Cooper Taylor is probably not the answer either as if he was, he probably would have entrenched himself in the lineup by now.
The Giants will want to see what they have in Nat Berhe as a potential free safety type to complement Landon Collins’ box safety role. Meanwhile Bennett Jackson is coming off two major knee injuries, which would cast doubt regarding his speed and if he could be an effective deep safety.
No matter how you slice it, the Giants need help at this position. Cleveland Browns defensive back Tashaun Gipson is a possibility, but a potential target who might be an even better option if he isn’t re-signed by his current team is Carolina Panthers safety Kurt Coleman, a former Philadelphia Eagles seventh-round pick in 2010.
Linebacker is another position that the Giants need help improving. If New York views Devon Kennard as their middle linebacker of the future—a shaky proposition, given Kennard’s lower-body injuries of the last two years—then perhaps going after the Seattle Seahawks' Bruce Irvin might be a good idea, as Irvin would give the Giants both a pass-rusher off the edge and a guy who can cover.
At wide receiver, with Rueben Randle unlikely to be back and Victor Cruz’s future up in the air, the Giants need a solid second receiver to complement Odell Beckham Jr.
Dwayne Harris and Geremy Davis, both of whom are believed to be in the team’s plans moving forward, are probably not quite there yet.
The popular choice among Giants fans is Chicago Bears wideout Alshon Jeffery, but it would be a shock if he were to hit the open market and come at a reasonable price.
So how about someone like Seattle's Jermaine Kearse? Per Pro Football Focus, Kearse averaged 12.9 yards per catch and had seven touchdowns. Kearse has had experience in the slot, catching all 12 of his pass targets from that spot for 154 yards and one touchdown last season.
Kearse’s 126.1 NFL Rating was also the third best on the Seahawks last season. His 685 receiving yards were second behind Doug Baldwin’s 1,069.
It’s still too soon to know exactly which free agents from other teams will be available, but the Giants and all their cap space will certainly be making quite a few splashes in this market.
Identify Prospective Draft Picks
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Last but not least is the NFL draft. As of right now, the Giants will have six picks—they traded their seventh-round pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers for punter Brad Wing.
Six picks doesn’t sound like a lot for a team with gaping holes on both sides of the ball, but if the Giants avoid the mistakes they've made in past drafts, such as gambling on athletes (instead of football players), injury-prone guys, guys from smaller schools taken in the earlier rounds, etc., they could come away with some solid contributors.
For example, if the Giants don’t feel they have a long-term future with Jason Pierre-Paul, maybe the Clemson Tigers' Shaq Lawson might be worth a look at No. 10.
With the linebacker position likely to be addressed both in free agency and the draft, the Ohio State Buckeyes’ Darron Lee would be worth a look as an outside linebacker in the second round.
With New York needing to replenish depth at cornerback, how about the Miami Hurricanes' Artie Burns or the raw but promising Maurice Canady out of the Virginia Cavaliers? Per NFL Draft Scout, Canady has experience playing outside and over the slot.
It’s going to be an interesting offseason filled with lots of new faces and second-guessing. Be sure to keep it right here for new analysis and much more as it all unfolds.
Patricia Traina covers the Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange. All quotes and information were obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced.
Follow me on Twitter @Patricia_Traina.
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