Andy Dalton Injury Leaves AFC Playoff Race Wide-Open

The Cincinnati Bengals lost a whole lot more than a critical football game on Sunday when quarterback Andy Dalton went out with a thumb injury; they may have lost the AFC's No. 1 seed, home-field advantage in the playoffs, a first-round bye and maybe even the AFC North title.

At the end of the Bengals' opening drive against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dalton tried hitting running back Giovani Bernard on a quick inside screen. Steelers defensive end Stephon Tuitt read the play, jumped the route and picked it off. Dalton, perhaps realizing he was the only Bengal between Tuitt and a long gain, dived low to take Tuitt out on the spot—and broke a bone in his hand.

Dalton retreated to the locker room and later emerged with a black wrap or cast on his throwing hand. Backup AJ McCarron, in the first significant regular-season work of his career, had a credible showing across the remainder of the game. He completed 68.8 percent of his 32 attempts for 8.75 average yards per attempt and two touchdowns, including a beautiful sideline bomb to A.J. Green, who shrugged off two Steelers on his way to a 66-yard score.

But McCarron threw two picks, one of which was taken back to the house by Steelers cornerback William Gay. In the end, the Bengals dropped a huge home game, 33-20, and kept the Steelers in the playoff hunt. A win would have mathematically clinched the division title for the Bengals. The combination of the loss and Dalton's injury not only gives the Steelers a little daylight, but it leaves the Bengals vulnerable.

Per Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, Dalton told reporters he broke a bone in his hand and would be seeing a specialist on Monday. Head coach Marvin Lewis affirmed Dalton would be "out for a bit"—but of course, there's only a bit of the season left. ESPN's Bob Holtzman suggested the injury will cost Dalton the rest of the year. But NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala said Lewis wouldn't rule out an eventual return for the Red Rifle:

That said, McCarron is certainly going to be at the helm of this high-powered Bengals offense for the immediate future. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson—who might be a popular head coaching candidate in a year, when there will be plenty of vacancies—will have to work his magic with a former fifth-round pick who's been holding a clipboard for two seasons.

The Bengals came into the week as the AFC's No. 1 seed by virtue of tiebreakers. In the pole position of a three-team race for two first-round playoff byes, with a game against one of the other two teams still on the schedule (the Denver Broncos, with the New England Patriots as the other team), they could ill afford a loss.

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During the late-afternoon block of games, the Broncos obliged the Bengals by dropping one at home to the Oakland Raiders—but if the Patriots take care of business against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football, the Bengals will have little margin for error.

If McCarron plays as well as he did Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively, the Bengals are more than talented enough elsewhere to secure two wins in those games. But going into Sports Authority Field at Mile High and coming away with a win against the Denver Broncos in Week 16 is a massive ask.

Per Kinkhabwala, McCarron welcomes the challenge; he compared the opportunity he's been given to New England quarterback Tom Brady's chance to take over for Drew Bledsoe. McCarron's confidence is admirable, but he'll have to back it up if his Bengals are going to beat out Brady's Patriots for one of the two first-round byes.

It's difficult to overstate just how important the first-round bye is going to be this January. With the Patriots nursing a bevy of key injuries and the Broncos and Bengals rolling with second-string greenhorns under center, the difference between going on the road to climb a three-game playoff mountain and starting at home in the second round is enormous.

Yet, this game has big implications in the other three-horse AFC playoff race: the one for the two wild-card spots.

Coming into the week, the Steelers were one of the NFL's hottest offenses, averaging 35.8 points over their previous four games. Together with a seventh-ranked scoring defense, the Steelers were a nightmare matchup for anyone—but in a three-way tie with the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets and tiebreakers not going their way, the Steelers would have been on the outside looking in.

Despite a massive road win over a divisional rival holding the AFC's top seed, the Steelers are no closer to the postseason after this game than before it, as the Chiefs and Jets both won on Sunday.

Team	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17
Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)	@BAL	CLE	OAK
New York Jets (8-5)	@DAL	NEP	@BUF
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)	DEN	@BAL	@CLE
Houston Texans (6-6)*	@IND	@JAX	TEN
Buffalo Bills (6-7)	@WAS	DAL	NYJ
Indianapolis Colts (6-7)	HOU	@MIA	TEN

Just like the Bengals, the Steelers have to face the Broncos and play two winnable games against the Ravens and Cleveland Browns. The Jets, outside of a Week 16 matchup against the Patriots, have winnable games against the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have an even easier slate: the Ravens, Browns and Raiders.

The Chiefs could easily run the table, and the Jets may not lose more than one of their final three. Incredibly, this game might have opened a door for the Steelers: They may not have to outpace the Jets or Chiefs for a wild-card spot, if McCarron and the banged-up Bengals falter in the AFC North title race.