Panthers vs. Titans: Full Carolina Game Preview
Life’s pretty good for the Carolina Panthers (8-0) right now. They finally beat a team with a winning record during their NFL-leading 12-game regular-season winning streak. They sit at least two games ahead of every other team in the NFC and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Green Bay Packers. They’re the only team left that controls its own destiny for home-field advantage in the NFC and seem nearly guaranteed to at least earn a bye week in the playoffs.
The Panthers made it through the four-game stretch that was supposed to expose them as frauds, beating Seattle, Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Green Bay in consecutive weeks. They’ll likely be favored in each of their remaining regular-season matchups. Carolina has, according to Football Outsiders, the league’s second-best defense (including the second-best pass defense) and the fifth-best running attack. It's beginning to finally get respect from the national media. Things are looking good.
The Panthers can’t get complacent, however, when they travel to visit the Tennessee Titans (2-6) this week. While the Titans’ playoff hopes are pretty much sunk this season already, they’re coming off an important win sparked by the return of their rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Titans fired head coach Ken Wisenhunt in early November, replacing him with assistant head coach Mike Mularkey, and so far, things have gone well—the Titans got a bit of the expected boost last week from replacing a failed head coach with a new one. Couple that with Mariota’s AFC Offensive Player of the Week performance, and you have signs of hope in the fanbase, even if that hope is more for next year or the year after than in 2015.
Add in the consecutive weeks of close, hard-fought battles against division leaders, and you have the makings of a trap game for the Panthers. This is a scenario they’re going to have to get used to—five of their remaining eight games come against teams with a losing record, and only the New York Giants are even in Football Outsiders’ top half of teams.
It’s a far cry from last season, where every game down the stretch carried massive playoff implications for the team as it fought back to win the division. The Panthers have never had this much of a lead this early in the Ron Rivera era, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds.
According to Odds Shark, the Panthers are six-point favorites despite being on the road. That seems fair enough for an undefeated team taking on a 2-6 opponent, but the Panthers are not the biggest road favorite on the docket this week. Perhaps oddsmakers have noticed the Panthers letting the Colts and Packers games nearly slip away in the fourth quarter, or perhaps they’re noticing the improved play of the Titans now that Mariota is back.
Either way, the Panthers can’t afford to look past the Titans, or they’ll find life a little bit tougher at 8-1.
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Time: 1:00 PM
TV: FOX, with Thom Brennaman and Charles Davis on the call
Week 9 Results and Recaps
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For the first time in their 12-game winning streak, the Panthers beat a team with a winning record entering the game, as they overcame the Green Bay Packers 37-29. Cam Newton’s four touchdowns—three through the air and one on the ground—played a major role in giving the Panthers a leg up on the rest of the conference.
Newton threw for 297 yards as the Panthers jumped out to a 23-point lead, but just like last week, a great quarterback on the other side began to whittle it back down. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, like Andrew Luck and the Colts before them, sprung to life in the fourth quarter to make the game competitive again. Rodgers ended with 369 yards and four touchdowns of his own, but he also threw a game-clinching interception to Thomas Davis inside the 5-yard line, allowing the Panthers to clinch the victory.
Newton and the offense unleashed a big-play offense they hadn’t shown much of this season. They hit three passes thrown 30 or more yards down the field, matching the season total to this point. The defense helped by pressuring Rodgers on 40 percent of his dropbacks, per ESPN, before it appeared to run out of gas in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t the complete victory the team has been looking for, but it was a very important one.
The Titans, meanwhile, aren’t playing for playoff seeding, but for the future. In their first game under interim head coach Mike Mularkey and their first game with Marcus Mariota back from a knee sprain, they beat the New Orleans Saints 34-28 in overtime.
Mariota won AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors with his performance, passing for 371 yards and four touchdowns, personal bests. The Titans fought back from a 21-10 deficit in the Saints’ second straight passing shootout. While Mariota and Drew Brees didn’t quite put up the same show as the over 100-point game the Saints and Giants played last week, they still combined for 758 passing yards.
The Titans, however, forced Brees to throw an interception and sacked him three times—an impressive performance for a banged-up defense that was relying on some practice-squad players in the starting lineup. At 2-6, the Titans aren’t going anywhere this season, but they’re still making noise.
NFC South Standings
| Team | Record | Pct. | PF | PA | Streak |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-0 | 1.000 | 228 | 165 | W8 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-3 | .667 | 229 | 190 | L2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4-5 | .444 | 241 | 268 | L1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | .375 | 181 | 231 | L1 |
The Panthers gained a game on all of their division opponents this week, and they have a very unlikely person to thank—Blaine Gabbert.
The Atlanta Falcons managed to lose to a San Francisco 49ers team that was without starting running back Carlos Hyde, starting receiver Anquan Boldin or starting tight end Vernon Davis. They were led by former first-round bust Gabbert, who replaced the benched Colin Kaepernick. That should have added up to an easy Falcons win, but Gabbert and the 49ers looked relatively sharp in a 17-16 victory—Gabbert’s first win since 2012.
The Falcons actually had a chance to win the game late but opted to kick a field goal from the 1-yard line down four points with three minutes left in the game. They never touched the ball again.
Elsewhere in the division, the Buccaneers lost to the New York Giants, 32-18, when Eli Manning threw two touchdowns and the defense held off a late Buccaneers comeback.
NFC Playoff Picture
| Team | Record | Pct. | Notes |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-0 | 1.000 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-2 | .750 | Over MIN via common games Over ARI via strength of victory |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6-2 | .750 | |
| New York Giants | 5-4 | .556 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | .750 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-3 | .667 |
The Panthers’ victory over the Packers didn’t just give the Panthers a two-game lead over the entire conference; it also pushed the Packers down into a tie with both the Minnesota Vikings in the division and the Arizona Cardinals for a bye week. The Panthers can rest above the fray of the ins-and-outs of the battle for playoff seeding, at least for this week.
According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers currently have a 72.3 percent chance to win the top seed in the NFC and an 89.3 percent chance of earning a bye week, with a Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch the most likely Super Bowl pairing. This is, at least in part, thanks to Carolina’s relatively easy schedule from here on out—Football Outsiders ranks it as the fourth-easiest schedule in football from here on out.
Still, it’s too early to say anything for sure—technically, every team in the NFC can still win the conference outright. That can change this week—the Detroit Lions will be eliminated from bye-week contention if they lose to the Packers and either Arizona or Minnesota picks up wins as well. They’re not precisely Carolina’s biggest threat, but every team that falls out of the picture is good news for the team.
News and Notes
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Tough Call for First-Half MVP
At the halfway point of the season, people are taking time to look back over the previous eight games and predict the next eight. Over on ESPN, David Newton has put up a blog post looking back over the first half of the season and what to expect from here on out.
Obviously, with the team rolling as well as it has been, there wasn’t much negative to report. His lowlight for the season was Luke Kuechly getting hurt in the season opener, and the highlight was Cam Newton leading the Panthers back for a come-from-behind victory in Seattle. When you’re 8-0, there’s a lot to choose from.
More interesting, perhaps, is his discussion on who should be team MVP at the midseason mark:
"Quarterback Cam Newton gets credit for leading an offense with a rag-tag group of wide receivers. Kawann Short is playing like the best defensive tackle in the NFL. But I'll go with cornerback Josh Norman. His four interceptions, two returned for touchdowns, set the tone for the fast start. That teams are avoiding him now is taking away half the field and giving defensive coordinator Sean McDermott more options than ever.
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All three picks are entirely justifiable, as the Panthers have a plethora of riches this season. There are also arguments to be made for any of the three interior linemen, Trai Turner, Ryan Kalil or Andrew Norwell. Luke Kuechly has also been his stellar self since coming back from the concussion, and he may well be the most valuable player by the end of the year.
If I had to make a pick right now, I’d go with Short. Interior linemen just don’t put up the sort of numbers in the pass rush that Short has seen so far this season. His 39 combined pressures, per PFF, are the most in the league for any defensive tackle, and his 19 defensive stops are in the top five in the position as well. Remember, Short has had to anchor a line that has seen injuries up and down and is still light in terms of depth. You could make arguments for a large number of Panthers players and not be wrong, but I’d go with Short for the moment.
Explaining the Panthers' Rise
There are three undefeated teams remaining. For the New England Patriots, being 8-0 isn’t surprising; they’ve done it before and are the defending Super Bowl champs. The Cincinnati Bengals, likewise, have been good for the last four years, with the sixth-best record since 2010. The Panthers, no matter how you slice it, are the least likely of the 8-0 teams.
FiveThirtyEight revisited its preseason ELO projections, noting that it only gave the Panthers a 1.8 percent chance of starting the season 8-0, compared to New England’s 6.6 percent chance. What it found most interesting is the unusual way Carolina has improved.
Most teams that see massive improvements from year to year, the site says, do it with an improved passing game. However, while Cam Newton is playing better, the injuries to his receiving corps means we haven’t seen much raw improvement in the passing game. Instead, it’s the rushing game that’s led the improvement on offense, and the terrific improvement in pass defense that has propelled Carolina up the rankings.
Remember, at the beginning of 2014, the Panthers were starting Melvin White, Antoine Cason and Thomas DeCoud in their secondary. Not only has Josh Norman come on and played like an MVP candidate, but Charles Tillman and Kurt Coleman have been significant upgrades as well. It’s an unorthodox method of success in the modern NFL, but it’s working out just fine for the Panthers.
Panthers to Struggle in Playoffs
After all the optimism so far, perhaps a splash of cold water is necessary to keep things realistic. ESPN’s K.C. Joyner came out with an article explaining why the Panthers are “very likely to lose multiple regular-season games and eventually struggle in the playoffs”.
That’s a pretty bold statement for an undefeated team, so let’s look at what Joyner specifically points out as Carolina’s flaws.
He points out Carolina’s lack of a vertical passing game, as Newton ranks 23rd in “vertical yards per attempt," thanks in large part to the lack of vertical pass receiving talent. It’s true that before the Green Bay game, Newton had just completed three passes all season that had traveled 30 or more yards through the air.
He points out that they’re good, but not great, at scoring points—they score 2.0 points per drive, 11th best in the league. At the same time, they give up too many points, allowing 22 or more points in five of the last seven games.
The overall defensive performance, he says, is skewed by games against bad offenses, and games to come against the likes of Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan should see them come back to Earth.
He closes with this:
"Barring a significant defensive improvement, the Panthers are going to keep giving up too many points per game. This will cause them to lose multiple regular-season games and will also likely lead to a postseason loss that will turn this terrific start into just another ultimately disappointing campaign for the Panthers.
"
It is important to acknowledge that the Panthers aren’t perfect. They’ve given up an alarming number of rushing yards for a great defense, allowing 4.2 yards per attempt. They haven’t really put away any opponent early, with only the Tampa Bay game being more or less over before the fourth quarter began. Their pass offense is only above-average, and that's thanks mostly to Greg Olsen. Carolina's special teams are bad, with Graham Gano missing field goals and the punt unit not limiting returns. You would not hold up this year’s Panthers as the ideal football team by any stretch of the imagination.
However, on a game-by-game and play-by-play basis, the Panthers have been a great team this season, and Joyner’s article feels like being contrary for the sake of being contrary. I would agree with the notion that the Panthers are the worst of the undefeated teams at this point, but they’re still 8-0, with a great defense and an above-average offense. They have a two game-lead on the conference and face a very easy schedule from here on out.
Will the Panthers go 19-0? Probably not. That’s really hard to do. Maybe Eli Manning will throw for 400 yards against them in New York, or the Falcons will defend the Georgia Dome. Maybe the Packers will finish the job if the teams meet again in the playoffs, or maybe the Patriots will put the kibosh on them in a Super Bowl rematch. But the Panthers went 7-8-1 last season, so calling this season “ultimately disappointing” seems extremely myopic.
Injuries
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Both the Titans and Panthers have relatively abbreviated injury reports this week, though both also have expected starters sitting on injured reserve. Neither team is more healthy than the other though 10 weeks.
Panthers Injuries
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Wed. Practice |
| Jonathan Stewart | RB | Ankle | Limited |
| Ed Dickson | TE | Quad | Limited |
| Ryan Kalil | C | Ankle | Limited |
| Dwan Edwards | DT | Ankle | Limited |
| Andrew Norwell | G | Hamstring | None |
| Luke Kuechly | LB | Ankle | None |
- Jonathan Stewart was a newcomer to the injury report with an ankle injury, though it doesn’t appear to be anything that could cause him to miss time. Behind him, Cameron Artis-Payne has just 12 carries and Fozzy Whittaker has just seven, so if he does miss the game, there’s not a lot of experience behind him.
- Ed Dickson was on last week’s injury report with a hamstring, which has now apparently moved to his quad. It’s likely he’ll suit up again this week, with Scott Simonson as the third tight end on the roster.
- Ryan Kalil is improving from his ongoing ankle injury suffered in Week 7. Last week, he missed Wednesday’s practice entirely, moving to limited on Thursday and full on Friday. He played last week, so there’s no reason to think he won’t do the same this week, especially as he’s practicing more.
- Dwan Edwards is still trying to come back from his high ankle sprain, and the Panthers could use him—depth on the line has hurt the team in the fourth quarter of the last couple games. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but he was listed the same last week before he shut it down and missed the game. It’s been a month since he suffered the sprain, so we’re in the window when he could return. He’s taking it day-by-day and is questionable.
- It’s looking like Andrew Norwell will miss another game with the hamstring injury he suffered against the Colts. According to Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer, he’s probably still a week away. Expect another start from Amini Silatolu.
- Luke Kuechly went down a couple times against Green Bay but had his ankle taped up and got back into the game. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Ron Rivera said he’s not concerned with his game-day availability, per the Charlotte Observer. A.J. Klein would cover for him if he missed time, but he looks OK to go.
Titans Injuries
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Wed. Practice |
| Perrish Cox | CB | Hamstring | Limited |
| Blidi Wreh-Wilson | CB | Hamstring | Limited |
| Dexter McCluster | RB | Ankle | None |
| Kendall Wright | WR | Knee | None |
| Jason McCourty | CB | Groin | None |
- Perrish Cox actually returned from his hamstring injury last week to help cover the depleted Titans secondary. He was active, but he looked hampered by it at times and ended up not playing every down despite starting. He’s back to limited on the injury report this week, but the Titans don’t have a lot of other options at the position.
- Blidi Wreh-Wilson missed last week with his own hamstring, but he at least has returned to practice this week, so he’s at least advancing toward playing.
- Dexter McCluster did not practice with an ankle injury. He was just named a captain this week, which would seem to be an odd move if he wasn’t going to play, however. There might be some snaps for David Cobb, who was just activated from the injured list, if McCluster misses time.
- Kendall Wright is battling an MCL issue, and it looks like he’ll miss another week. Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter start in his absence.
- Jason McCourty is the third Titans cornerback on the injured list this week. He’s scheduled to get a second opinion on his groin, and that doesn’t bode well at all for him to play this week. That’s three cornerbacks who are questionable, at best—that just leaves Coty Sensabaugh, Cody Riggs and B.W. Webb healthy and on the roster. This is not ideal.
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Key Matchups
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OT Michael Oher and Mike Remmers vs. DE Jurrell Casey and DaQuan Jones
If the Titans are going to pull off the upset, it’s going to be defense-oriented. Casey has arguably been the team MVP so far this season, with four sacks, 15 quarterback pressures, six tackles for a loss and four passes defended, per ESPN. DaQuan Jones was a fourth-round pick last year but has blossomed into a very solid run defender as he’s gained more and more snaps as a starter.
The Titans have struggled this year against mobile quarterbacks like Cam Newton, but this is still the strength of their defense, which, in turn, is the strength of their team. If the Titans can win battles along the line of scrimmage, they’ll have the chance to pull off an upset victory here.
SS Roman Harper vs. TE Delanie Walker
The Titans’ best offensive player at the moment is tight end Delanie Walker, an all-around tight end who can contribute both in the receiving game and in run blocking with equal aplomb. Like Greg Olsen on the Panthers, Walker has been the Titans’ first, and sometimes only, option in the passing game; he leads the team in yards, receptions, targets and touchdowns.
He’s gone over 50 yards receiving in each of the last four games and nearly hit the 100-yard mark twice in that stretch, not to mention the two touchdowns he picked up last week against New Orleans. Tight ends are often the best safety valve for rookie quarterbacks, and Walker’s having a borderline Pro Bowl season working with Marcus Mariota. Shutting him down would go a long way to handling Tennessee’s offensive threat.
CB Josh Norman vs. QB Marcus Mariota
Mariota was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his stellar performance against New Orleans, and he now has two separate games in which he’s topped the 300-yard mark in his short career, as well as two days in which he’s slung four touchdown passes. He’s had his rookie ups and downs, of course, but he’s shown enough flashes and potential for Titans fans to be excited with him going forward.
The best cover cornerback Mariota has faced so far might be Ronald Darby in Buffalo, or perhaps Delvin Breaux in New Orleans. Either way, Josh Norman represents the biggest challenge Mariota has had to try to solve all year, and he’ll have to do it without Kendall Wright. The Titans didn’t miss him last week, but the Panthers’ secondary is slightly harder to throw against than the Saints’. Expect the Panthers to shut down the passing game in this one.
X-Factors
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Carolina X-Factor: DE Kony Ealy
The Titans start a familiar face at right tackle—former Panther Byron Bell. Panthers fans remember Byron Bell’s performance from last year quite well. According to Pro Football Focus, Bell was responsible for nine sacks, five quarterback hits and 38 hurries last season on his way to a minus-31.2 grade, second worst in the league. He was such a liability that it was thought bringing in Michael Oher would be an improvement, and it actually has been so far.
The Titans moved Bell inside for the first eight weeks of the season but kicked him back to the outside as part of the reshuffling that came with the head coaching change. It will be nice for Panthers fans to get a chance to enjoy Bell’s struggles for once, rather than be victimized by them. It could be a big day for Kony Ealy and the pass rush.
Tennessee X-Factor: ILB Wesley Woodyard
The Panthers offense succeeds via the strength of its running attack, be it handing the ball off to Jonathan Stewart or just letting Cam Newton get to the second level. Tennessee actually has a good pass defense, but its run defense is below average, allowing teams to rush for 111.5 yards per game.
After their defensive line, their next-best run defender is Woodyard, who leads the team in defensive stops, per PFF. He’ll likely be tasked with the job of ensuring Cam Newton doesn’t run all over them, possibly in a spy role. He’s one of the top linebackers in football and could have a massive impact on the game.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Titans 17
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It is possible to overthink these things some times. The Panthers are 8-0 for a reason, and the Titans are 2-6 for a reason. Even if the Panthers were the worst 8-0 team and the Titans were the best 2-6 team in the league, that’s still a massive gap in talent levels. An 8-0 team has never lost to a 2-6 team, though it’s only happened three times since the merger.
Yes, the Titans looked good last week, but they put up massive offensive numbers against a very bad New Orleans defense—one that Football Outsiders ranks dead last against the pass. The Titans will find the Panthers defense a little harder to rack up major yards through the air against. The Titans are good at defending the pass, but not the run, and that’s how the Panthers win on offense. The Titans are just not particularly well suited to beat this Panthers team.
It’s not a foregone conclusion by any means. If the Panthers are going to lose a game this year, it’s more likely to happen outside of Charlotte than at home. Marcus Mariota also has shown the capability of having a fantastic game throwing the ball. Perhaps the change to Mike Mularkey has provided the team with the spark it needs to compete going forward.
Then again, we saw with Dan Campbell in Miami how temporary a sudden improvement coming from a coaching change can be. It’s not like they got a sudden influx of talent between weeks—quite the opposite, actually, with their secondary in shambles.
If the Panthers do slip up, that opens up the door for another team in the division to maybe catch them before the end of the season. That should be more than enough motivation to keep the Panthers on track in this one.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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