Biggest Takeaways from Green Bay Packers' Week 8 Loss
The biggest takeaway from the Green Bay Packers' Week 8 loss to the Denver Broncos is not only that the team won't go undefeated in 2015 after all—but if the weaknesses the Packers revealed on Sunday continue, they are going to add on a few more losses before the season's end.
But the undefeated iteration of the Packers may have been getting a little complacent, and if nothing else, their embarrassing 29-10 loss to Denver should shock them into addressing those areas of concern and correcting them, whether on the player execution or coaching level, prior to Week 9.
Next on the schedule is another tough matchup in the Carolina Panthers.
Let's break down five things we learned from Green Bay's performance in Week 8 and how the team can improve as it prepares to face the Panthers.
Green Bay's Offense Needs to Adjust Scheme to Personnel
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It's no secret that the Packers offense has been average—or below average—for most of the season.
The reason why became clearer in Sunday night's loss to Denver. The Packers' stockpile of weapons has been hit hard this season.
From wideouts Jordy Nelson being placed on injured reserve, Davante Adams missing three straight games and Ty Montgomery injuring his ankle just before the bye to top rusher Eddie Lacy being hampered by an ankle injury and tight end Andrew Quarless on injured reserve with designation to return, the Packers haven't had a loaded stable all season.
The problem has stemmed in part from the fact that, regardless, Green Bay continues to try to run its spread-based offense, forcing its receivers to beat man coverage and get open for Aaron Rodgers.
Sure, Nelson and Randall Cobb are capable of that. But Adams is in his second season and has missed most of the year; Jeff Janis and Montgomery don't have Rodgers' confidence yet, and James Jones has been out of the system for two years.
It's not working.
The Packers need to help their players help themselves, and that starts all the way at the scheme level. Head coach Mike McCarthy needs to introduce routes designed to beat man coverage.
Andy Benoit of the MMQB breaks down what that kind of scheme shift could look like:
"Examples of “man-beaters” include intertwined crossing routes; trips bunches with receivers crisscrossing in their releases off of the line; pre-snap motion (something you almost never see from the static Packers); stack releases, with one receiver lined up behind another (think Julian Edelman and the Patriots) and the most popular route concept in today’s quick-passing NFL: natural rubs and picks.
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The Packers need to face their reality and scheme for the team they have, not the team they had last season. This offense isn't bereft of playmakers, and it can still be effective with little help from the play-calling.
Packers Continue to Struggle on the Road Against Winning Teams
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The Packers have the road blues, and they continued at Mile High Stadium Sunday night.
In case you had forgotten, the Packers have not beaten a team that has a record over .500 on the road since 2012. The last time was against the 8-5 Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in December 2012.
Winning on the road is difficult; that's why home-field advantage is such a crucial part of the playoffs. Winning against tough teams is also difficult.
Their past failures don't mean that the Packers aren't true contenders or that they're doomed to fall on the road in the playoffs.
However, it does suggest that their quest to play deep into January and even into February will be difficult if they can't secure that home-field advantage, especially given how many teams in the NFC are currently above .500.
The Pass Rush Proved It Can Be Beaten
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Part of the reason Peyton Manning appeared to resurrect his season against Green Bay on Sunday night is that the Packers could not get any pressure on the signal-caller.
Green Bay didn't sack Manning once and only hit him three times, two of those by Clay Matthews.
Even with Denver's subpar offensive line, the Packers couldn't bring the pressure.
But Denver got the run established on Sunday, which allowed the offense as a whole to succeed. The Denver offensive line gave Manning time to work through his progressions and find open targets. Manning was 21-of-29 for a 72 percent completion rate, which is his second-highest of the season.
Between the successful runs and quick short passes, Green Bay's front simply could not get into the backfield in time to put any sort of pressure on Manning.
The Packers' unit came into the matchup having had at least one sack in an NFL-record 42 consecutive games—a streak that ended Sunday night.
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The Division Title Is Still Up for Grabs
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At 6-1, the Green Bay Packers are now only one game ahead of the 5-2 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.
If the Packers fall to the Carolina Panthers in Week 9 and the Vikings triumph over the St. Louis Rams—both distinct possibilities—the division rivals will find themselves tied atop the division at 6-2. The two won't meet head-to-head until Week 11, but the Packers are 1-0 in the division.
The Vikings are 3-0, meaning the Packers' upcoming slate of intra-division games will prove crucial. Green Bay's divisional matchups are extremely backloaded this season, with four in a row coming up: Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit twice between Weeks 10-13.
Perhaps anticipating the battle for division dominance that could go down in Week 11, the league has flexed the Packers-Vikings showdown to 4:25 p.m. ET.
We've already been over how Green Bay tends to struggle against winning teams on the road, so needless to say, obtaining home-field advantage in the playoffs is critical for the Packers. Winning the division starts with beating Minnesota in Week 11, but losing Week 9's matchup in Carolina will set the Packers back.
Casey Hayward Struggling on the Outside
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This year was expected to be a transitional one for cornerback Casey Hayward, as he moved from the slot to the perimeter as a starter for the first time.
But Hayward's struggles came to a head Sunday against Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas, against whom Hayward was no match.
Against Thomas, Hayward allowed four receptions on five targets into his coverage for 109 yards, per Pro Football Focus. The wideout averaged a whopping 21.8 yards per reception, including 40 after the catch.
Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette observed that Hayward looked "lost." ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky remarked that Thomas "destroyed" him.
But it wasn't just Hayward; the entire secondary looked off Sunday, no doubt largely because it was missing Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins, both of whom left the game with injuries.
Even rookie Damarious Randall, who has proved to be skilled beyond his years when given the chance to play outside in sub-packages this season, struggled against Thomas, allowing three receptions on as many targets for 50 yards.
Hayward is currently ranked 43rd out of 76 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage by Pro Football Focus, having so far this season allowed a catch rate of 65.1 percent and two touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks have a 108.6 passer rating when throwing into his coverage.
According to Wood, defensive coordinator Dom Capers said Hayward would have played in the slot if Shields had remained healthy. Per Demovsky, citing a source, Shields' shoulder injury is not serious, so perhaps Hayward will spend fewer snaps outside in Week 9 against Carolina.
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