Colts vs. Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Indianapolis?

The defense is in shambles, the running game has become irrelevant, quarterback Andrew Luck can’t stop turning the ball over and head coach Chuck Pagano is on a seat so hot it might as well be in the middle of the sun.

But other than that it has been a relatively successful season for the Indianapolis Colts.

Once placed on the short list of teams capable of winning the Super Bowl, an abysmal AFC South is all that stands between the Colts and a completely lost season. Sitting at the top of the division is a consolation prize for a team mired in frustrations and disappointments through a little less than half a season.

There is still time to turn the season around, and a stretch of games against three of the league’s best teams could be the jolt to the system Indianapolis needs to get its season back on track, and it all starts Monday night against the 6-0 Carolina Panthers.

How should the Colts go about pulling off the upset that could define the second half of their season? Let’s take a look at the game plan for Indianapolis for their Monday night contest with the Panthers.

Offensive Game Plan

AJ Mast/Associated Press

First things first—and this is a big one—stop turning the ball over.

The key to pretty much all of the Colts' non-secondary-related issues has been the crazy amount of turnovers the team has committed this season, and more often than not they’ve come at the worst possible moments.

Last week against the Saints, the Colts committed three turnovers, including two Andrew Luck interceptions—more on him in a minute—which resulted in two touchdowns for New Orleans and a missed opportunity to kick a field goal before the half. Seeing as the game ended 27-21 after a furious comeback, those 16 points the Saints scored or Colts didn’t because of turnovers might have had a big impact on the game.

A fumble on the kickoff is relatively fluky and can be chalked up to bad luck, but Luck throwing nine interceptions in only five starts is a serious problem. Against the Patriots, relying on a short- and mid-ranged passing attack, Luck not only didn’t turn the ball over but played his best game of the season by far.

Whatever magical game plan it was that had the Colts beating the Patriots through the first half needs to be brought back to life against the undefeated Panthers. Carolina is ranked in the top 10 in turnover difference this year, while Indianapolis sits at No. 31 with only the hapless Cowboys below them, not a good combination for those hoping for an upset.

Frank Gore needs to be involved more, someone needs to check on the tight ends to make sure they’re still a part of the team and Anthony Castonzo has to stop holding people so much, but it all starts with the turnovers. If Luck can’t cut down on the interceptions, it is a long road back to the top for the Colts.

Defensive Game Plan

AJ Mast/Associated Press

There is so much going wrong with the Indianapolis Colts defense at the moment that it's almost hard to point out exactly what it is they need to focus on for their upcoming clash.

The ineffectiveness of their front seven this season, even with surprising growth out of defensive line rookies and Stanford teammates David Perry and Henry Anderson, both in terms of slowing the run and getting anything that even resembles pressure on the quarterback, has been a huge hindrance on the team this year.

A quick solution to that should have been to play Robert Mathis more—who had been criminally underutilized since returning from a torn Achilles earlier this year—but even with him in the lineup last week, the pass rush was still difficult to watch.

But the biggest issue comes, as it has all season, in the secondary for Indianapolis. Getting Mike Adams back should help at safety, but even against a group of receivers that is doing well but not exactly lighting up the league, the Colts have to be at a serious disadvantage.

Vontae Davis is still one of the best in the league, although he isn’t playing like it at the moment, but the rest of the cornerbacks have been terrible this year and will be stuck between two minds with quarterback Cam Newton’s running ability in the cards as well.

The Panthers biggest strength has been the run this year, though, so the best course of action would be for the Colts to focus on stopping Jonathan Stewart and Newton on the ground, matching Davis up with Ted Ginn Jr. and hoping the rest of the secondary can do enough to stop wide receiver Corey Brown and tight end Greg Olsen from scoring at will.

Key Matchups and Players

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S Mike Adams

In the weeks leading up to his injury, Mike Adams had become something of a diamond in the rough for the Indianapolis Colts. While the rest of the secondary struggled to stop even the most pedestrian of passing attacks, the team could point to Adams with a smile and say, "See, not all of our defensive backs are bad."

Recording three interceptions in two weeks—including a pick-six on Tom Brady’s only interception this season—and earning AFC Defensive Player of the Week award is very much deserving of all the credit he was getting, and then, like the rest of the Colts secondary at points this season, he got injured.

Missing last week’s game against New Orleans was a big blow for Adams, who has improved drastically since his terrible Week 1 performance against Buffalo, and the Colts secondary as a whole, but fortunately for Indianapolis his absence was a short one. Set to make his return against Carolina, Adams will be looked at to continue his ball-hawking ways or at least try to help keep Olsen off the scoreboard.

QB Andrew Luck

It’s been talked about ad nauseam this week leading up to the Panthers game, but at the moment the Colts have a bit of an Andrew Luck problem on their hands.

After tearing the league apart for three seasons since joining the Colts in 2012, Luck—considered by many before the season in the same class as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers—has become a turnover machine who has made Matt Hasselbeck look like a viable starting option over him.

While he is never getting benched as long as he is healthy, Luck’s turnover issues have been hard to watch this season as the team has struggled to a record of 1-4 with him at the helm, a far cry from the 33-5 record he compiled the previous three years. Against a Panthers team that forces a decent amount of takeaways, that record get could even worse unless Luck fixes the problem

CB Vontae Davis

It is hard to tell if Vontae Davis has been struggling this season, or the stink from the rest of the secondary is so strong that it has had an impact on the superstar cornerback's play.

There have been obvious bright spots—let’s raise a glass for Sammy Watkins back in Week 1—but on the whole Davis has been less than a shadow of himself, which isn’t to say he has been bad and that’s how good he is, but he just hasn’t lived up to his status as one of the best defenders in the NFL.

Despite the performance this season, though, Davis has still been far and away the best player in the Colts secondary all season—you could argue when he was on the sideline with a concussion in Week 2 he was still the best player in the defensive backfield—and will be called on to live up to that mantle on Monday.

Ginn Jr. and Brown haven’t scared anyone outside of the Big Ten since joining the league but have played well enough that Davis needs to be careful or risk another poor game while matched up one-on-one with one of them.

P Pat McAfee

It says a decent amount about the state of the team when its best player on the season has been the punter, but that’s just how well Pat McAfee has played.

Leading the league in total punt yards and net punting average while ranking No. 3 in average yards per punt has McAfee at the top of the Colts player power rankings pretty much every week. The fact Indianapolis is second in the league in kickoff touchback percentage, according to Team Rankings, with McAfee running kickoff duties doesn’t hurt either.

Even if the Colts play a perfect game, trotting McAfee out is inevitable and his impact will be felt by the Panthers one way or another.

Prediction

R Brent Smith/Associated Press

In 2014, the NFC South was the worst division in football. The Carolina Panthers, thanks in large part to the always-intriguing tie in the regular season, limped to a 7-8-1 record and, thanks to an archaic playoff system, hosted a postseason game.

On the other side of the bracket, the Colts were flying high en route to their first AFC Championship Game in the post Peyton Manning era. It was a culmination of a meteoric rise for Indianapolis under Luck and Pagano to a place atop the league standings.

Fast forward just a few months and the teams might as well be masquerading as each other for Halloween this weekend. The Panthers are undefeated and inarguably one of football’s best stories this year with Newton reminding critics why he was a No. 1 pick a few years ago, while the struggling Colts sit at 3-4 but still lead the worst division in football.

When the two clash Monday night, it will carry different levels of significance for both teams, as the Panthers hope to keep their unbeaten run on track and the Colts will look to just keep pace with the rest of the AFC heavyweights.

This season has been a tough one for the Colts, and facing a Panthers team that is much better than many predicted isn’t the answer to the team’s woes. If Luck doesn’t turn the ball over, there is a chance at an upset, but it still isn’t likely.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Colts 21