Chicago Bulls Players Who Will Make a Big Jump in 2015-16
The Chicago Bulls' new experiment with Fred Hoiberg and “Hoiball” has officially launched, and the early returns are positive. The Bovines are 2-0 for only the third time since Michael Jordan retired, which includes a win over their mortal enemy, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Furthermore, they’ve led for over 89 minutes of their first 96 minutes of basketball.
Things are clicking as Hoiberg uses his full roster and gives guys a chance to prove themselves on the court. They’re coming through. Another reason is that he’s utilizing them in better ways, giving them the freedom to react and make decisions in the flow of the game.
As a result, some players will have the opportunity to bring their games to another level this year, and that’s already showing up in the box scores and on the court.
The Kids: Doug McDermott and Tony Snell
When Mike Dunleavy Jr. went out for as many as 10 weeks after back surgery, it gave a couple of the Bulls’ other wings, Tony Snell and Doug McDermott, a chance to show they can fly. McDermott, understandably, has gotten more attention from the media.
He went to Ames High, the same school as Fred Hoiberg, but that’s not why he’s considered a lock to get more run. He has the skills that work in Hoiberg’s offense. He can knock down the three, and he has more ability to put the ball on the court than people recognize.
During the preseason, he showed he can be a rotation player and perhaps turn into a leading scorer off the bench. According to NBA.com, during the preseason he averaged 11.6 points on 39.8 percent shooting and 36.7 percent from deep. He’ll still need to raise those numbers, but he’s shown flashes of demonstrating genuine “sixth-man” quality, including hitting this game-winner to close exhibition play:
Tony Snell, on the other hand, has a chance to establish himself as a bona fide three-and-D shooting guard, getting the start in Dunleavy’s absence. Through his first two games, he has held opponents to a paltry 27.8 shooting percentage on 18 shots. The only player with 15 shots defended whose counterparts have fared worse is DeAndre Jordan.
Snell is also shooting 44.4 percent from deep through the first two games, and he’s doing that while attempting a career-high 4.5. He has always had a butter shot with fluid form, but he was inconsistent in knocking it down. Getting the starting gig in Dunleavy’s place appears to be giving him the confidence he needs to rectify that.
Hoiberg gave Snell the starting nod over McDermott because of his defense. Snell has nearly a 7-foot wingspan and great defensive instincts. Hoiberg wants him to take some of the pressure off Jimmy Butler defensively:
One of the less heralded but more meaningful moves the Bulls made was bringing over Jim Boylen to run the defense. He previously had a similar role with the world champion San Antonio Spurs. If he can turn Snell into the next Danny Green, which is not at all an impossible task, the Bulls will have a special pairing with Butler.
The Rotation Changes: Nikola Mirotic and E'twaun Moore
Most people who didn’t already know him became familiar with Nikola Mirotic last year when he blew up during a red-hot March, in large part because he was getting playing time. In 30.8 minutes he averaged 20.8 points and 7.6 boards for the month, although his shooting percentages were still somewhat pedestrian: He shot 26.3 percent from deep and 44.1 percent from the field.
To a large degree, that’s because while former coach Tom Thibodeau was using Mirotic, he was misusing him. Rather than being utilized as a stretch 4 with above-average athleticism, Mirotic was filling in as an oversized, less athletic small forward.
Hoiberg decided in the preseason to move former First Team All-NBA center and Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah to the bench, slide All-Star power forward Pau Gasol into the starting 5 spot and give Mirotic the nod at power forward.
Interestingly, it wasn’t his idea. Hoiberg explained to Zach Lowe of Grantland how Noah came to him with the suggestion:
"Jo actually came to me and talked to me about that. He said, basically, “I’ve always played well with Taj.” He said he thought Niko and Pau played very well together, so let’s go that route. It was actually Jo that started the whole conversation. He came to me. That says a lot about him.
"
Through two games, the decision has paid off. Mirotic has gone ballistic, scoring 18.5 points per game while attempting just 10.5 field goals and 4.0 free throws. His true shooting percentage is a blistering 75.4, and his player efficiency rating is 27.1, according to Basketball-Reference.com. He also leads the Bulls in points per 100 possessions with 32.4.
What’s probably a little surprising to some is that the next-most prolific scorer per possession through two games is E'twaun Moore at 31.1, who has apparently taken the backup shooting guard spot from Kirk Hinrich.
Moore isn’t going to win Sixth Man of the Year, but he doesn’t have to contribute more than he did last season when was on the court just 504 minutes. Just securing that rotation spot should see him continue around his current average of 10 points. He’s not going to maintain his ridiculous 76.9 true shooting percentage, but he will still be efficient.
The Backcourt: Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose
The media spent too much time this offseason delving into the personal relationship between Derrick Rose and Butler, trying to determine whether they "had beef." What matters is how much they’re helping each other on the court.
Apparently, Rose hated Butler so much he bought him an expensive watch to congratulate him on his breakout season. Talk about bitter!
More important than how much they like each other, though, is how well they can play together. In fact, the duo’s ability to get to the next level is interdependent, which is they are listed here together.
How they play off each other, and how well the two play with rising star Mirotic, will be the key to the Bulls’ season. They have real potential to form a championship-caliber Big Three.
Using the passing dashboards at NBA.com for the player pages, we can see what happens when they take shots off one another’s passes. What Rose, Butler and Mirotic have been doing when they’re feeding one another the ball is positively mind-boggling:
| Tandem | FGM | FGA | 3PM | 3PA | eFG% |
| Butler to Rose | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Rose to Butler | 6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 87.5% |
| Mirotic to Rose | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.6% |
| Mirotic to Butler | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 87.5% |
| Butler to Mirotic | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 85.7% |
| Rose to Mirotic | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 58.3% |
| Combined | 23 | 38 | 8 | 13 | 71.1% |
That’s the kind of chemistry even Walter White would be proud of.
All told, that accounts for 54 points, or roughly slightly more than 25 percent of the Bulls 212 points on the season—and that’s just the points off one another’s passes. Even if you buy into the “beef” hype, it’s obviously not affecting them on the court.
And this is where the difference in the new coach is most apparent. Mirotic stretching the court opens up space for Rose and Butler, aka the Slash Brothers, to drive lanes and get to the rim. Rose has struggled from the field in his first two games, but considering the broken orbital fracture, the resulting double vision and the abbreviated preseason, that’s not a big concern. His shooting percentages will go up.
Lowe asked Hoiberg about it, and the answer was spot on:
"Lowe: Derrick went hard at the rim the other night, and maybe he should have gotten some calls, but a few of those drives kind of ended in chaos. If you freeze the film, you see some easy, simple passes staring him in the face: Pau open for a ball reversal, Doug McDermott spotting up. Is it hard to find the balance between making the easy play and just rushing to the rim? Because good stuff, like drawing fouls, can happen when he just puts his head down.
Hoiberg: He’s only got one eye right now.
Lowe: This is true.
"
Promisingly, 20 of his 33 shots have come at the rim—or 61 percent of them. Compare that with 315-of-835, less than 38 percent of them last year.
Butler, who struggled in the preseason with Rose out, is an efficiency machine, shooting 60 percent from the field, 60 percent from three and 100 percent from the stripe. His effective field-goal percentage is 66 percent, and his true shooting percentage is 71.9 percent.
Butler is shooting 70 percent overall with Rose on the court and 20 percent without Rose. True, the two-game sample size skews the numbers, but last year Butler had a 52.4 percent effective field-goal percentage with Rose and 48.3 percent without him. Clearly, Rose makes Butler better.
The opposite was also true. Rose shot 45.2 percent with Butler and 44.4 percent without him. Rose’s assist percentage was 29.6 with his backcourt mate and 25.9 without him.
The two help each other by sharing the pressure and feeding off each other. They make each other better. And now, with Mirotic playing the stretch 4, they have an offense that maximizes both of their abilities.
The Bulls' duo has 45-point, 10-plus-assist potential—numbers comparable with the Golden State Warriors’ backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Chicago's hopes rest on the pair reaching that potential.
The Bulls aren’t the favorites to win the East by any means, but the opening-night win over the Cavs has to be a bit of a confidence booster. And if they can continue to get production from their full cast of characters, they’ll be much fresher in the playoffs than they have been in recent history. And, they’ll have a chance.
All stats for this article were provided courtesy of NBA.com/Stats and Basketball-Reference.com.
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