Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Championship Contender
The race for the college football national championship can be as volatile as the stock market, as a handful of contenders found out in the last few weeks.
Two previously undefeated Top 10 teams tasted defeat last Saturday, knocking them out of the high rankings and leaving them with some serious work to do in order to get back into the thick of the playoff race. But they can follow the example of several other one-loss squads that have already bounced back and fought their way into contention again.
Other Top 10 teams have seen their championship stocks fall—despite their perfect records—due to injuries and less-than-impressive play. While there's still time to recover, the roads only get tougher from here for many powerhouse programs.
Last month, B/R colleague Brian Leigh took the championship stock of the Top 10 teams in the Week 5 Associated Press poll. We'll do the same here, handing out similar grades of Strong Sell, Moderate Sell, Reluctant Sell, Reluctant Buy, Moderate Buy and Strong Buy for the current Top 10.
Stocks are based on the teams' overall talent, health, schedules and performances so far this season. Everyone has their own unique view of the playoff stock market, so be sure to sound off on these contenders in the comments below.
10. Iowa
1 of 10
Perhaps the biggest surprise team of the 2015 season so far, Iowa is a Top 10 team and the runaway favorite in the Big Ten West division heading into Week 9.
Iowa's 7-0 surge is thanks to a strong rushing attack (25th in the nation), an even stronger rushing defense (third nationally with only one TD allowed) and a "new" Kirk Ferentz, the longtime head coach who has made some welcome changes in play-calling and practice methods.
Depth is also one of Iowa's strongest assets, which will help the Hawkeyes tremendously in a run toward the postseason. According to Robert Boleyn of Athlon Sports, Iowa has used at least seven different reserves this season in place of injured starters, but they just keep winning games.
It's difficult to tell if Iowa has enough firepower to hang with the title contenders this season, as it doesn't have a real tough test between now and conference championship week. But the Hawkeyes are the only ones who have beaten a ranked Pittsburgh team, and they've already knocked off their toughest competition in the West—Wisconsin and Northwestern—on the road.
While Iowa probably doesn't have enough overall talent to be a national championship contender, it has the easiest run to an undefeated regular season of anyone in this Top 10. If the Hawkeyes keep grinding it out and then spring an upset in Indianapolis this December, who knows what the ceiling is for this team in such a chaotic season?
Verdict: Moderate Sell
9. Notre Dame
2 of 10
Another program that has battled through injury after injury, Notre Dame is still within striking distance of a playoff berth, even at 6-1 on the season. The Irish's only loss, after all, came on the road against a team that is playing some of the best football in the country.
Notre Dame's high-powered offense keeps humming through injury, with the backfield battery of DeShone Kizer and C.J. Prosise performing above and beyond expectations. Having star wide receiver Will Fuller and a crazy-good offensive line helps, too, for an offense that is ranked fourth nationally in yards per play this season.
The Irish's defense, while incredibly experienced, has been hot-and-cold this season. Notre Dame held Clemson to fewer than 300 yards in a loss but also allowed 590—more than 7.5 yards per snap—in a high-scoring victory over a resurgent USC team. The Irish made stops on defense when they needed to against the Trojans but have had repeated issues with surrendering big plays this season, as noted by Scott Janssen of UHND.com.
However, the biggest concern with Notre Dame down the stretch as a title contender is its schedule. Heading into the season, the back half looked like it would be a great time for the Irish to pick up easier wins. But now Temple is undefeated, Pittsburgh is ranked and Stanford looks like the real deal again.
All three of those tough matchups for Notre Dame are on the road, too. The Irish have the talent to run the table, but that's a tough ask for a program that has already had to battle through so much in the 2015 season. Notre Dame should drop one more game but still make its way to a high-quality bowl.
Verdict: Moderate Sell
8. Stanford
3 of 10
Stanford opened the season with a dreadful performance at Northwestern that caused a nationwide sprint to the emergency exit of its bandwagon.
But the Cardinal team that became a trendy playoff pick over the summer is cashing in on its potential again with an explosive offense and a defense that continues to improve statistically from week to week—with the exception of the UCLA win two weeks ago.
As Tom FitzGerald of SFGate.com noted, Stanford has been the recipient of several great breaks through its first six wins of the season—great overall team health, a favorable schedule that looks fantastic down the stretch and several wins over teams with a lot of inexperience at the all-important quarterback position.
Stanford has great senior leadership under center in Kevin Hogan, who is playing the best football of his collegiate career as the nation's sixth-most efficient passer. Sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey exploded onto the national scene as a do-it-all playmaker, and a dominant offensive line is paving the way for an attack that hasn't had fewer than 440 yards in any game since the Northwestern loss.
With Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame all coming to Palo Alto to end the regular season, the odds of Stanford running to the Pac-12 title game and beyond look strong. The Cardinal are playing like a balanced and complete championship program at the moment.
Verdict: Moderate Buy
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7. Alabama
4 of 10
We've all seen this script from Alabama before. The Tide dropped a regular-season game to an SEC West foe—Ole Miss this time, for the second straight season—but they're still deep in the national championship picture thanks to the huge amount of talent under head coach Nick Saban.
Alabama has tightened up its woes from September's surprising shootout loss to an Ole Miss team that took back-to-back road losses earlier this month. Last weekend, Tennessee was the first team since Ole Miss to complete more than 50 percent of its passes and avoid an interception against a vastly improved Alabama secondary.
On the offensive side of the ball, Alabama has been a little more careful with the ball, although turnovers continue to be a red flag on a team with several flaws. But quarterback Jake Coker has made big throws when he's needed to most, and bruising running back Derrick Henry is still the same home run threat out of the Tide backfield.
The strength of this team is still a nasty front seven led by several strong NFL prospects, including the fearsome defensive line tandem of A'Shawn Robinson and Jonathan Allen. Their play will be crucial in Alabama's next game, a heavyweight bout with undefeated LSU in Tuscaloosa.
The winner of LSU-Alabama will most likely be the SEC's best bet to reach the College Football Playoff, and the Crimson Tide has home-field advantage for that matchup. If the Tide beat the Bayou Bengals and shaky Ole Miss drops another game, Alabama would be a much stronger buy for a title run.
Verdict: Moderate Buy
6. Michigan State
5 of 10
Some might say Michigan State doesn't deserve to hold such a high place in the rankings, and there's some truth to that statement. The Spartans, once the No. 2 team in the land, struggled to put away several lesser-quality opponents and needed a once-in-a-lifetime break to beat Michigan away from home.
But all that matters in the long run is that the Spartans just keep winning. If they continue to find a way to overcome a growing list of injuries—especially the ones on the offensive line and the secondary—and still come out on top each week, they'll be in the final four.
"We're 8-0. That's the first thing," head coach Mark Dantonio said, via Dan Murphy of ESPN.com. "As far as practicing, we need to heal up. We've got a lot of guys banged up. We cannot take the risk to practice this week and then, all of a sudden, have more guys hurt."
After this off week, though, one would assume Michigan State needs to put together some more complete performances in order to get back into the thick of the race. The Spartans travel to desperate Nebraska in two weeks before a home game against Maryland. Then it's off to the potential division-decider against Ohio State in Columbus.
Michigan State's current health and road game against Ohio State make the Spartans a solid sell. This team has the talent to keep winning down the stretch, but none of their previous wins inspire a lot of confidence in their overall chances.
Verdict: Moderate Sell
5. TCU
6 of 10
Like Michigan State, TCU knows what it's like to be bitten by the injury bug in 2015. An outbreak of major injuries crushed Gary Patterson's first-choice defense for the Horned Frogs, who are still undefeated heading into their final five games of the regular season.
The Frogs have gotten this far because of their fantastic offense, which is led by Heisman candidate Trevone Boykin at quarterback. TCU is No. 2 behind rival Baylor in both scoring and yardage this season, and Boykin has already willed his team to comeback wins at Texas Tech and Kansas State.
"TCU has braved three serious road challenges against Power Five foes and is just trying to survive and advance," Max Olson of ESPN.com wrote. "Gary Patterson has enough star power on offense, and his young, patchwork defense is improving under fire."
The road will get even rougher for TCU in the next few weeks. After hosting a West Virginia team that has played the Frogs extremely close in each of the last three seasons, TCU must travel to undefeated Oklahoma State and one-loss Oklahoma in the span of three weeks.
If Boykin, Josh Doctson and the rest of the offense can continue to find ways to simply outscore the opposition, the Horned Frogs will have one of the most impressive resumes in the country. However, the injuries and the rough November stretch—except for the home game against Kansas, of course—are just too discouraging to invest in the Frogs right now.
Verdict: Reluctant Sell
4. LSU
7 of 10
For the first time since 2011, LSU will enter November with an undefeated record. The last time Les Miles and his team did that, they went all the way to the national championship game.
It's hard not to believe LSU has enough offensive weapons to get to the championship this time around. Sophomore running back Leonard Fournette is the Heisman front-runner with a strong lead in almost every major rushing category and a great offensive line. The much-improved Brandon Harris has posted three straight 200-yard performances and an interception-free winning streak at quarterback.
The defense, which looked in danger of taking a step back without coordinator John Chavis, has nearly an identical total yards allowed mark to the one it had last season. While the secondary has been up-and-down this season, teams haven't been able to move the ball well on the ground against the Tigers, who rank seventh nationally in rush defense.
Unlike Alabama, LSU can say it has total control of where it's headed in the playoff race. With an undefeated record, the Tigers would be firmly in the playoff if they win out—a task that would include road victories against Alabama and Ole Miss.
The road matchup against Alabama is enough reason not to put LSU as a "strong buy," but the Tigers have all the pieces to get back to the title game under Miles. The quarterback play looks ahead of schedule with Harris, the running game is phenomenal with Fournette and the defense can be as fierce as LSU's elite units of the past. LSU has everything one would want in a contender.
Verdict: Moderate Buy
3. Clemson
8 of 10
Clemson was already one of the safest bets for a College Football Playoff spot heading into Week 8, but Saturday somehow put even more hype behind Dabo Swinney's Tigers.
Against Miami, Clemson was beyond dominant, smashing the Hurricanes by a score of 58-0 in their own stadium and sending Al Golden on his way out of a head coaching job. And, as Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote, a loss later that night for Clemson's biggest competition in the ACC pushed the Tigers even further ahead in the playoff race.
"With the ACC’s strength suddenly in question—and Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech did not help matters on Saturday—these style points won’t hurt in the eyes of the committee," Kramer wrote. "If the Tigers keep this up, there will be zero questions about resume or whether they belong in college football’s top four, regardless of what its primary competition does next."
Clemson's offense has put up more than 500 yards in three straight games, and both the passing and ground games have each had 400-yard performances during that stretch. Its defense, which returned a small amount of talent from last year's No. 1-ranked unit, is firmly in the top five this season.
Florida State will definitely be a test for Clemson in two weeks, but the Tigers get to play that game in the comforts of their home stadium. Their favorable schedule makes them easy picks for a playoff spot, and their impressive balance in recent weeks has Clemson looking like a potential champion.
Verdict: Strong Buy
2. Baylor
9 of 10
A team's title hopes can change in an instant, as Baylor found out Saturday in its home victory over Iowa State.
The Bears' high-powered offense lost their leader, quarterback Seth Russell, to a neck injury in the fourth quarter against the Cyclones. On Monday, Baylor announced that Russell would undergo surgery and miss the rest of the season. Russell finished Week 8 as the nation's leader in both pass efficiency and yards per attempt.
Head coach Art Briles' famed offensive system has had success with new quarterbacks. Russell was in his first year as a starter, but the Bears are still on pace to break an all-time yards-per-play record. However, breaking in true freshman Jarrett Stidham during the middle of the season is a lot different from the preparation Russell went through this past offseason.
Baylor will most likely suffer some sort of drop-off from its video game offensive pace with Stidham, putting a bigger spotlight on the team's defense. The Bears have improved in that area since a rather shaky start to the season against low-quality competition and will need to continue to step up their game as they prepare to hit a tough November slate.
The Baylor offense should still be quite good without Russell in the long run—Stidham can rely on the likes of touchdown machine Corey Coleman at wide receiver—but it's risky to go all-in on the Bears without seeing what the true freshman can do as a starting quarterback.
Verdict: Reluctant Buy
1. Ohio State
10 of 10
After a slow start to the season that threatened its place atop the polls, Ohio State looks like the complete title contender it was expected to be from the opening kickoff of 2015.
The defending national champions have won their last three Big Ten games by three, four and six touchdowns, respectively—a far cry from the seven-point wins over Northern Illinois and Indiana earlier this year. The Buckeyes offense looked a lot better with J.T. Barrett at starting quarterback against Rutgers, and the defense has improved as a whole throughout its last few contests.
"I think we're playing at a very high level right now," head coach Urban Meyer said, via Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod. "There's a good mindset in there. We have to continue to keep getting better. We know what's coming down the pipe here and some really tough games coming up. Some teams get better; some teams don't. We're getting better right now."
That's a great sign for Ohio State, which gets a breather before a home game against Minnesota and a road game against Illinois. The Buckeyes host Michigan State before hitting the road to face a much-improved Michigan team. Take care of business, and they'll be back in the Big Ten title game with a shot at the playoff.
From there, Ohio State can rely on the deep amount of talent it has on both sides of the ball and the national championship-winning experience from last season. That experience is a great advantage no one else in the field has.
Verdict: Strong Buy
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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