Eagles vs. Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?
The last time the Carolina Panthers faced off against the Philadelphia Eagles, they were sacked nine times, a career high for Cam Newton. Is it any surprise, then, that they lost 45-21? In fact, only 11 times in NFL history has a team won while surrendering nine or more sacks.
| 1999 | MIA | NE | W, 31-30 | Damon Huard | 9 |
| 1992 | PHI | SEA | W, 20-17 | Randall Cunningham | 10 |
| 1990 | SEA | KC | W, 17-16 | Dave Krieg | 9 |
| 1986 | PHI | LARD | W, 33-27 | Randall Cunningham | 11 |
| 1986 | DAL | SD | W, 24-21 | Steve Pelluer | 11 |
| 1984 | ATL | PHI | W, 26-10 | David Archer | 9 |
| 1978 | GNB | SD | W, 24-3 | David Whitehurst | 10 |
| 1966 | KC | BUF | W, 31-7 | Len Dawson | 9 |
| 1961 | BUF | DEN | W, 23-10 | Johnny Green | 9 |
| 1960 | CLE | WAS | W, 31-10 | Milt Plum | 9 |
| 1952 | SF | DTX | W, 48-21 | Frankie Albert | 11 |
Suffice it to say, the Panthers will want to avoid quite so many sacks if they hope to remain competitive in this one. Despite their 3-3 record, the Eagles still boast a threatening defense, but the Panthers have improved the quality of their offensive line dramatically since that game, with Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Nate Chandler no longer in the starting lineup.
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That trend goes through to the teams as a whole, as well. The Eagles are about as good as the team that clobbered the Panthers last season, but the Panthers are improved across the board, undefeated and looking to prove they belong on a prime-time game at home. Let’s take a closer look at some of the key strategic points to this matchup.
Offensive Game Plan
The Eagles defense is the stronger part of the team. It doesn't appear on the tops of the charts for yards allowed, but that’s because the offense plays with such an uptempo style and is also turnover-prone, which means that the defense simply plays more plays than most teams. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Eagles have faced 427 plays—more than any other team in football other than the San Francisco 49ers, who played their seventh game on Thursday night.
You’d expect the extra work load to tire out the Eagles, but they’re only allowing five yards a play, fifth least in the NFL. They’re one turnover behind the Broncos for the NFL lead, allowing the second-fewest yards per rushing attempt at just 3.5 yards per carry, and are third in the league in only allowing 26.9 percent of opposing drives to end in a score. In short, the fact that their overall gross numbers are average shouldn’t make you believe that this is not a great defense.
The team's run defense is something worth watching out for. It has allowed one rushing touchdown all season long, and that was on a one-yard plunge by quarterback Kirk Cousins back in Week 4. Running backs have not been able to hit paydirt as of yet.
Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan anchor the point of attack. On power runs—3rd- or 4th-and-short plunges, or goal-line attempts—they overwhelm the opposing offensive line and prevent running backs from gaining any traction. According to Football Outsiders, Philly has only allowed 43 percent of those power runs to be successful, which is the third-best mark in the league.
In less obvious run situations, Cox and Logan help clog up offensive linemen, with linebackers Mychal Kendricks and Brandon Graham flowing in to close the gaps. When necessary, Malcolm Jenkins and Walter Thurmond come up from their safety positions to further lower the boom. The Eagles do not give up big plays in the ground game, with only 13 carries of 10 yards or more so far this season. It’s a stingy defense when it comes to getting anything going on the ground.
The key to avoiding those negative plays is to win the battle at the point of attack. That’s where Carolina’s league-best interior offensive line needs to come into play.
No team can match the trio of Trai Turner, Ryan Kalil and Andrew Norwell up front—all three would receive significant All-Pro consideration were the votes slated for today. If the Panthers are going to get anything going on the ground, they’re going to have to prevent the defensive linemen from clogging their assignments and creating that initial push for Jonathan Stewart or Cam Newton to run behind.
They might want to try their luck more often when some of the reserves are in. The drop-off from Logan to Beau Allen at nose tackle is significant, and Allen’s averaging about 30 percent of the defensive snaps per game, per PFF.
This is the downside to the uptempo offense the Eagles run—their big guys up front get tired and have to sit out more plays than is ideal. If the Panthers can put together some long drives, that could tire out the defense and allow room for some bigger plays.
In the passing game, the Eagles provide the inverse of the challenge the Seahawks provided last week—they’re fairly solid against everything except for top receivers, where they’re only 27th-best in the league, per Football Outsiders, allowing more yards a game to the position than any team other than San Francisco. They’re also only middle-of-the-pack against the deep pass, as opposed to their top-10 performance on shorter routes. That could mean a big day for Ted Ginn Jr. going deep as long as the offensive line gives Newton time in the pocket from the likes of Cox, Graham and Vinny Curry.
Defensive Game Plan
You don’t necessarily need to pressure Sam Bradford to have big results. According to ESPN, he’s been pressured on only 14.6 percent of his dropbacks yet has thrown the second-most interceptions in the league. As long as you keep his options well-covered, you don’t need to bring extra pressure up front to force Bradford into mistakes.
The Eagles have an elite left tackle in Jason Peters, but their line is questionable elsewhere. The line has had issues providing room for the running game to get going, and it has already lost starting right guard Andrew Gardner for the season. His replacement, Matt Tobin, has struggled against the pass rush, as has right tackle Lane Johnson in recent weeks.
The Panthers shouldn’t need too much extra help in their attempts to get pressure this week. Kawann Short is having an All-Pro-caliber season at defensive tackle and should be able to win the battle with either guard to close in on Bradford. With the relative weakness of the right side of the line, this could also be Kony Ealy’s chance to shine. Ealy finally got his first quarterback hit of the season last week against Seattle and could build on that in this one.
As for shutting down opposing wide receivers, no one’s been better at that this season than Josh Norman.
None of the healthy Eagles receivers really frighten you, and he should be able to clamp down on Josh Huff on the outside. According to PFF, Norman was targeted twice against Seattle, allowing two catches for negative-two yards. He hasn’t allowed a 50-plus-yard receiving day yet this season. Jordan Matthews may be the bigger threat, but he plays out of the slot mostly, where it will be Bene Benwikere’s primary job to keep him quiet.
With Nelson Agholor out and Riley Cooper questionable, the Eagles will have to rely heavily on DeMarco Murray, but Murray’s struggled to get things going early this season. Murray had 11 yards combined in his first two games as an Eagle, but things have been picking up.
| 1 | ATL | 8 | 9 | 1.13 | 1 |
| 2 | DAL | 13 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 |
| 4 | WAS | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 5 | NOR | 20 | 83 | 4.15 | 1 |
| 6 | NYG | 21 | 112 | 5.33 | 1 |
The Eagles have been slowly shifting into more traditional running formations and sets, which plays better to Murray’s strengths. The man led the NFL in rushing yards last season, so he can’t be overlooked.
The Eagles have rushed for over 100 yards in each of their three wins and fewer than 100 yards in each of their three losses. There’s a bit of a chicken-and-the-egg relationship here—teams that are winning run the ball more to drain the clock, so they naturally have more rushing yards—but it’s still a sign that the Eagles need to keep their ground game moving in order for them to really pose a threat. Their passing game is significantly below par. If you shut the running game down, the Eagles can’t really hurt you.
Key Players and Matchups
Carolina WR Ted Ginn Jr.
Philadelphia’s DVOA ratings against deep passes down the sideline are frighteningly bad. On deep passes—15 or more yards through the air—it has DVOA ratings of 24.1 percent to the left and 35.2 percent to the right, well below average. This is how Julio Jones and Willie Snead burned the Eagles for 141 yards each, as well as going toward 100-yard receiving games for Brandon Marshall and Brandin Cooks.
Ginn’s the Panther best suited for taking advantage of these sorts of matchups, exploiting Byron Maxwell on the outside. While they do get a lot of turnovers, they’re mostly not coming from interceptions by the cornerbacks. It’s a matchup the Panthers may be able to exploit against a tough defense.
Philadelphia RG Matt Tobin
Tobin is filling in for the injured Andrew Gardner, which means he’ll be an obvious target for the Panthers defensive line as it seeks to get pressure on Sam Bradford. Backups and replacements are frequently targeted until they prove they can hold up to scrutiny.
In three starts, Tobin has given up two sacks, two quarterback hits and four hurries, per PFF. It’s not substantially out of line from what you’d expect a backup to be able to produce, and he’s been doing solidly enough in the running game. He’s quick, if not the largest guard in the world (6'6", 290 lbs), and has some upside. He’s worth watching.
Carolina DE Kony Ealy
Ealy’s been a step slow to getting to the quarterback all season long, but he finally got off the slide with his first recorded quarterback hit of the year last week against Seattle, per Pro Football Focus. It’s not like he’s been bad—he has 11 hurries on the season. It’s just that he hasn’t been able to finish off a play with sacks quite yet.
This may be a week, going up against Tobin and Lane Johnson, where Ealy can finally get that first sack on his stat sheet this season. He’s been improving bit by bit each week, and he’s almost there. He could break out on Sunday night.
Carolina CB Josh Norman
Josh Norman will get to try to prove to the masses he’s the top shutdown corner in the league. He’s putting up Darelle Revis-esque numbers as he shuts down opposing teams’ top receivers.
He’s tied for the league lead with four interceptions, and Sam Bradford has thrown the second-most interceptions in football so far this season. This could be the chance for another multiple-interception game for the contract-year-bound Norman, or perhaps he’ll get the ultimate honor and not be targeted at all in this one.
Bene Benwikere and Charles Tillman have been more than fine at the other positions, so it’s not like the Panthers are weak elsewhere. That’s just how good Norman has been. The 24.1 rating he’s giving up to opposing quarterbacks is the lowest in the league, per PFF. Wise quarterbacks would stay away.
Philadelphia S Malcolm Jenkins
The Eagles rank among the top teams in the league in safety play, with both Jenkins and Walter Thurmond being worthy of All-Pro consideration so far. Jenkins has long been a thorn in Carolina’s side after five years with the New Orleans Saints. Despite his history of solid play, Jenkins has just one interception in nine games against Carolina (back in 2013).
His job this week may be to stop Greg Olsen, Carolina’s biggest receiving threat. Olsen has had some quiet days this season, but he also has two 130-plus-yard receiving days—against New Orleans and last week against Seattle. Those are his two career highs, and he’s on pace for a career-high 1,197 yards on the season. Jenkins should have his hands full, but he should see plenty of targets to try to record his second interception against the Panthers.
Prediction
The Eagles are better than your average 3-3 team, but this isn’t the same Panthers team they walloped last season. They’ve gotten better talent along the offensive line, Cam Newton is healthier and scrambling around again, and their defense is back in full swing.
It wouldn't be completely shocking if the Eagles pulled out the victory; you could make a very cogent argument that the Eagles are on a roll after their last two games, and they have plenty of momentum going forward. Things are beginning to fall into place after a lot of roster turnover this offseason in Philadelphia.
On the other hand, if you believe in momentum, no team has more of it than Carolina. It hasn’t lost a regular-season game since November 30th and hasn’t lost a home game since two weeks before that.
The Panthers just overcame their biggest recent hurdle, the Seattle Seahawks, and look poised to continue their winning ways. They’re not going to go 16-0—they have too many issues with their offensive weapons to really predict that—but they’ve got more than enough juice for a double-digit-win season and perhaps even a bye week in the playoffs.
The Eagles at home is a game Carolina should win if it expects to make the playoffs rather than just hope to. The prediction is the Panthers set a franchise record by getting to 6-0 in this one.
Final score: Carolina 24, Philadelphia 21.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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