Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA Preseason DFS Advice, Strategy for Beginners
The NBA season starts next Tuesday.
Next Tuesday! That's four days from now.
I can't wait. There are so many fun storylines this season: Kevin Durant is back, but will he be back in Oklahoma City next season? Will he even be Kevin Durant? The Golden State Warriors won 67 games and the title and they're not even the favorites to repeat as Western Conference Champions?! Provided Kawhi Leonard continues to improve and LaMarcus Aldridge stays the same, the San Antonio Spurs could run out a lineup of five future Hall of Famers! The Houston Rockets signed Ty Lawson and nobody seemed to notice. The Cleveland Cavaliers' payroll is approaching L.A. Dodgers territory. (OK, it's not, but it's really high.) Last season, the L.A. Clippers had the worst bench unit for any contender; this season they might have the best.
Most importantly, NBA daily fantasy is back.
Here are some quick tips to help you have a successful season on DraftKings.
Play Beginner Competitions
DraftKings allows its users to play up to 50 "beginner" contests in each sport. These contests feature other "newbs" who haven't played that much. Sure, there'll be an occasional shark in these tournaments, but for the most part, the scores will be a little lower and you'll have a better shot at winning.
Injuries and "DNP's" are Crucial
Daily fantasy basketball is all about value. A player's value depends on what goes on around him. For instance, right now, it seems like the entire New Orleans Pelicans roster is out with injury. Tyreke Evans just had knee surgery, Omer Asik has a calf strain, Alexis Ajinca has a hamstring injury, Norris Cole has a high ankle sprain, Quincy Pondexter is still out due to knee surgery and Jrue Holiday is on a minutes limit.
What does that mean? Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson will be asked to take about 300 shots a game, and someone (Eric Gordon? Nate Robinson?) will emerge as a legitimate fantasy beast from this thin backcourt.
DNP's or "did not play(s)" are harder to predict than injuries. Teams like the Spurs use this tactic to rest older players and keep everybody fresh and ready for a deep playoff push.
This information usually doesn't come out until shortly before game time. To avoid using players who might not play, check Twitter, RotoGrinders and the DraftKings website or app shortly before games begin.
Monitor Team and Player Tendencies
Some teams play fast. Some teams run their entire offense through one guy (the 2014-15 Durant-less Thunder come to mind), others share the rock. It's your job to pick up on these trends. Good ways to keep up are the pace, usage and offensive/defensive efficiency stats you can find easily on Basketball-Reference.com.
Check the over/under gambling lines before you build your lineup. Daily fantasy basketball is simple. Higher scoring means more points and assists for the players in the game. More points and assists equals more fantasy points.
The point spread can also be a big factor. Last season, the Warriors' average margin of victory was 10.1. When they played bad teams, it was a safe bet that guys like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson would not be needed in the fourth quarter. Ideally, you want to play starters in close, high-scoring games. Bench players are much more valuable in high-scoring blowouts (though I strongly suggest avoiding bench players at all costs).
This probably feels like a lot to do before every slate of games. Believe me, it is. But once you've done the preparation a few times, you learn the players, the teams, and you'll be less dependent on the deep internet-statistical dives. At that point, setting your lineup is quick, easy, and usually quite lucrative.
Good luck in the 2015-16 NBA season.
