Everything You Need to Know About the San Antonio Spurs' 2015-16 NBA Season
Gregg Popovich's machine is smoother and more productive than any in the NBA. It manufactures 50-win campaigns with clockwork consistency and crowds the AT&T Center rafters with championship banners.
But the San Antonio Spurs' assembly line has seen its most dramatic change in decades. Internal development and under-the-radar additions have long fueled this dynasty. This time around, though, it's an external splash that has the Alamo City buzzing.
The Spurs were in the championship hunt before going free-agent hunting. They might have been bounced from last year's opening round, but they finished one win shy of claiming the West's No. 2 seed (and wound up sixth instead) and posted the league's third-highest point differential.
San Antonio, just one season removed from its fifth world title since 1999, could have trusted roster continuity and chemistry to carry it back over the hunt. The franchise went out and added a superstar instead, then surrounded him with the key members of its last championship squad.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: LaMarcus Aldridge (free agent), David West (free agent), Jimmer Fredette (free agent), Ray McCallum (acquired from Sacramento), Boban Marjanovic (overseas), Jonathon Simmons (free agent)
- Subtractions: Tiago Splitter (traded to Atlanta), Cory Joseph (signed with Toronto), Marco Belinelli (signed with Sacramento), Aron Baynes (signed with Detroit), Jeff Ayres (signed overseas)
LaMarcus Aldridge was the only 2015 All-Star to change teams this summer, joining the Spurs on a four-year, $80 million contract. That's not the only thing separating him from his peers, either. There's also the fact he's the only player to average at least 21 points and eight rebounds during each of the past five seasons; no one else has done it more than twice.
Aldridge isn't a "typical" Spur. He's conscious of his individual production, and he can bog down ball movement with a high-volume post-up game. But he's a skilled, intelligent player, and the same could be said of his new teammates. That doesn't guarantee a seamless transition by any stretch, but it isn't hard to imagine a wildly successful end result.
"It will take him a bit to feel the flow of the Spurs' nonstop offense—the constant screening, the dribble hand-offs that connect one action to the next, the cutting and passing," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe. "But Aldridge is a high-IQ player who can adapt."
The Spurs snagged the summer's biggest bargain, landing David West for only the veteran's minimum. They also locked up rising two-way wings Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, plus brought Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili back to the fold. They sacrificed some depth to pull everything together, but they look strong as ever on paper.
Storylines to Watch
San Antonio won't operate the same with Aldridge on the roster, and he won't play the way he did with the Portland Trail Blazers. There's a feeling-out process for all parties, as the big guy finds his place on a team that hasn't employed a 23-points-per-game scorer since 2002-03.
"Both sides have to adjust a little bit to make it work," Aldridge told Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding.
And this isn't only about Aldridge. The Spurs are simultaneously adapting to Leonard's meteoric rise, which has already included Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year honors. The workloads for Duncan and Ginobili are declining, while Patty Mills is moving up the pecking order and sophomore Kyle Anderson should have every opportunity to do the same.
Popovich must once again cement himself as the league's premier puppet master, pulling all the right strings to keep everyone in order. The goal is for the Spurs to look like they always do, even with the assembly line featuring several new faces.
Health will be a significant key, as the Spurs will field the Western Conference's oldest roster (second-oldest overall), per RealGM. And Popovich will have to find rest for his veteran players without giving up too much ground in the standings. Barring any physical setbacks, the Spurs should be one of the league's strongest contenders, especially if Tony Parker bounces back from a frustrating 2014-15 season.
X-Factor: Tony Parker
Hamstring problems have a tendency to linger like bad cologne, and Parker never could shake the one he first encountered last December. His stat sheet slid to levels unseen since his rookie year: 14.4 points and 4.9 assists. Come playoff time, they sank even further to 10.9 and 3.6, respectively.
Injuries can strike anyone, and they have a tendency to surface on the box score. But his numbers have been trapped in a two-year funk; last season simply continued a trend.
Parker made nine appearances at EuroBasket this summer and looked even further removed from his old All-Star form. He shot just 34.3 percent from the field, including a woeful 23.7 percent over his final five outings.
Father Time seems to have stripped away some of the 33-year-old's quickness, and that burst may not be coming back. The Spurs can only hope that it does, since so much of their offense has been predicated on Parker's ability to slither past the first line of defense. With Cory Joseph gone, the only options behind Parker are three-point specialist Patty Mills and the unproven Ray McCallum.
Making the Leap: Kyle Anderson
Leave it to the Spurs to have a rising prospect with enough "explosiveness" to carry the nickname, "Slow-Mo." But elite athleticism has never been a requirement for basketball success. Skills and smarts can trump physical gifts, and 6'9" sophomore Kyle Anderson has plenty of both.
"He knows how to play the game," Anderson's coach at UCLA Steve Alford told Sports Illustrated's Chris Johnson. "That sounds simple, but very few players get that. And Kyle knows how to play."
Anderson didn't have the opportunity to showcase his talents during a rookie season spent shuttling between the Spurs and their NBA D-League affiliate in Austin. But major minutes were awaiting him at NBA Summer League, and he used his 27.9 per night to score 18.9 points, corral 6.6 rebounds, dish out 2.0 assists and, eventually, take home the MVP award.
San Antonio's starting frontcourt might be the best in the business, and there aren't many reserve bigs better than West and Boris Diaw. Floor time will be hard to find there. But the perimeter isn't nearly as crowded, and it should have a relatively stable opening for someone with Anderson's all-around talents. By year's end, expect him to have slowly played his way into a permanent role.
Best-Case Scenario
This goes down as the best season of the Duncan-Popovich era. If that sounds like an impossible outcome, just consider this: The Spurs were one of the top teams in 2014-15, and the only change to their starting lineup for 2015-16 is swapping out Tiago Splitter for LaMarcus Aldridge.
Leonard, Duncan and Aldridge all crack the All-Star rosters, and Parker (a six-time All-Star) and Green (who ranked 12th in ESPN.com's real plus-minus last season) aren't far behind. The second team has a blend of experience and upside, and no coach routinely gets more from his players than Popovich. This group has 60-plus-win talent, and a championship is well within reach if everyone stays healthy.
Worst-Case Scenario
Parker looks a step slow, Ginobili struggles with efficiency, and Duncan can only do so much in a part-time role. Aldridge and Leonard simultaneously try to guide San Antonio out of its struggles, which winds up disrupting the offensive flow. The absences of Joseph, Splitter and Aron Baynes are noticeable defensively.
The injury bug leaves the rotation in flux. The chemistry isn't as solid as it has been in recent years, and it erodes further as the win-loss column doesn't reflect the group's on-paper ability. Without precision in the Spurs' execution, their underwhelming athleticism emerges as a fatal flaw. They again miss out on a top-four seed and suffer consecutive opening-round defeats for the first time during Duncan's tenure.
Predictions
The Spurs are constructed in a manner that they should be guarded against all forms of regression (health permitting).
If Parker is no longer the same accelerator for this offense, Pop can lean on Leonard and Aldridge to initiate the offense. If Ginobili struggles to spark the second team, it has a new crafty playmaker in Anderson. McCallum could help replace Joseph's defensive activity, and West's sharper offense skills (or, if he's ready, the 7'3" Boban Marjanovic's size) should offset the loss of Splitter's size (6'11").
There's no reason for San Antonio to take a step back—and several ways that it can improve. Leonard's best days are still ahead of him, scary as that sounds. Aldridge could be more efficient than ever with a deeper supporting cast than he had in Portland. The newcomers should help the vets age gracefully, and the latter should help the former get comfortable.
San Antonio could post a win total in the low 60s, but Popovich's maintenance plan for his aging core likely prevents that from happening. The Spurs should still finish with a top-three seed out West, paving the road for yet another lengthy playoff run. That could easily yield a title, but my crystal ball has a younger, more athletic club ultimately foiling their championship plans.
Final Record: 59-23
Division Standing: First in Southwest
Playoff Berth: Yes
Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Western Conference Finals
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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