Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Baltimore owns the divisional rivalry with Cleveland, winning 13 of the last 14 meetings outright, but the Browns are 4-2-1 against the spread over the last seven meetings and gave the Ravens several scares. Baltimore and Cleveland play the first of two this season Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium.

Point spread: Ravens opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.0-15.6 Ravens

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns just lost out at San Diego last week 30-27 on a field goal at the buzzer, but they hung on for the cover as seven-point dogs on the road. Cleveland answered the Chargers on every score, forging a tie with just over two minutes to go on a Josh McCown touchdown pass and two-point conversion.

The Browns then looked like they got lucky when San Diego kicker Josh Lambo missed a 39-yard field goal with two seconds left, but Cleveland's Tramon Williams was called offside, and Lambo hit the game-winner on his second chance.

The Browns out-rushed the Chargers 100-91, won time of possession by a 34-26 margin and got a 32-of-41 performance from McCown with zero interceptions.

Cleveland lost twice to Baltimore last season but led both of those games in the fourth quarter. There's little reason to believe this week's meeting won't be close too.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

After losing their first three games this season by a total of 14 points, the Ravens picked up their first win last Thursday, rallying to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh 23-20 in overtime. Baltimore fell down 20-7 in the third quarter, tied the game at 20-20 on a Justin Tucker field goal with two seconds left, then won it on Tucker's 52-yarder 10 minutes into overtime.

The Ravens rushed for 191 yards last week and won time of possession by almost six minutes, although they could only push the spread as three-point favorites over a Pittsburgh team playing without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Baltimore's three losses this season came by six points at Denver, by four at Oakland and by four at home against undefeated Cincinnati. But the Ravens remain AFC playoff contenders.

Smart pick

Cleveland played on the West Coast last week, and now it plays on the opposite side of the country this week. Meanwhile, Baltimore is playing on a couple of extra days off. Also, the Browns are giving up 142 yards per game on the ground this season. The smart money here resides with the Ravens.

Betting trends

The Ravens are 13-1 SU against the Browns since 2008.

The Browns are 3-0 ATS in their last three divisional games on the road.

The Ravens are 7-0 SU in their last seven games as home favorites in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.