Saints vs. Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?

Can the Carolina Panthers rattle off three wins in a row, which would be their best start in more than a decade?  To do so, they’ll have to cut through their division rivals, the New Orleans Saints.

For years, this has been a tall task.  From 2009 through last season, New Orleans put up a 62-34 record with multiple postseason appearances, with a 7-5 record against Carolina, including sweeps in 2010 and 2011.  It’s the third-best record in football over that time span, behind only the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers.  The Saints have been a dominant force in football over the past five seasons.

This year, however, things appear to be different.  Not only have they started 0-2, including an embarrassing loss last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they’ll be without future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees.  Brees has never missed a start in his Saints career due to injury, but according to Saints coach Sean Payton, Brees’ bruised rotator cuff is just too much for him to handle this week. Payton spoke of Brees' injury, per Katherine Terrell of the Times-Picayune:

"

Drew Brees will be out for this game. He'll travel, and I think just where he's at in the rehab and his strength, that he felt, and we all felt like it would be too early for him to play this weekend.  I would say next week we'll continue the process, and without trying to make an estimation about his return, we felt like he made progress without the week, and yet he's not where he needs to be or where we feel comfortable with the strength that he need.

"

This puts Luke McCown squarely behind center this week, and that’s a clear downgrade:

Player	Starts	Record	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	INT	Rate
Brees	203	117-86	4,991	7,544	66.2%	56,643	398	196	95.0
McCown	9	2-7	184	317	58.0%	2,035	9	14	68.3

You can never assume a win in the NFL; however, McCown’s come off the bench to lead teams to victories before, and Sean Payton is pretty good at designing offenses.  What will the Panthers have to do to ensure a victory in this one?

Defensive Game Plan

Normally, we start talking about the offense, but the McCown situation makes this the far juicier part of the matchup.

McCown hasn’t thrown a pass in a meaningful game since 2013 (against Carolina, actually), hasn’t completed a pass in a meaningful game since the end of 2011 in mop-up action and hasn’t started since Week 2 of that 2011 season. 

In other words, he’s got tons of rust on him, though he’s been moderately effective in preseason action since then—this past preseason, he put up a quarterback rating of 126.2, which isn’t bad.

That’s the preseason, though, and this is game action.  McCown’s a savvy veteran who has been in the system for years, so it’s not like he’ll be unprepared to run the Saints’ system.  He’s just not going to be nearly as effective at it as Brees would be, even with a banged-up shoulder.

The ideal way to shake McCown’s confidence is to knock him down early and often, attacking New Orleans’ offensive line.  Ideally, the Saints would want a very strong offensive line performance, but they’re dealing with injuries there, too. 

Jahri Evans, the six-time Pro Bowler, has yet to practice this week, per Evan Woodbery of the Times-Picayune, and was officially ruled out of this game, according to the Saints’ injury report.  This forces Senio Kelemete into the starting lineup.

The Saints, so far, have been doing an alright job at keeping Drew Brees upright, according to Pro Football Focus’ statistics:

Player	Pos	QB Sk	QB Ht	QB Hu	Total
Terron Armstead	LT	0	1	4	5
Tim Lelito	LG	1	0	3	4
Max Unger	C	1	0	1	2
Jahri Evans	RG	0	0	1	1
Zach Strief	RT	3	0	1	4
Total	OL	5	1	10	16

The Saints have been throwing a lot of shorter routes this year, to better help their offensive line and to make up for the losses of key skill positions.  In 2015, 56.5 percent of Brees’ dropbacks have taken 2.5 seconds or less, per PFF, as opposed to just 48.4 percent last season.  The Saints are trying to hit receivers short and let them run more than they did last year, when they got most of their yards on the back of Brees’ arm strength.

What that all means is the pass rush is going to have to get home quickly to disrupt McCown.  Kawann Short has had a very strong start to the year, and he will get to match up with the weakest of New Orleans’ linemen, Tim Lelito.  Star Lotulelei is practicing at full speed now, per David Newton of ESPN.com, and might get to play against a backup.  Charles Johnson will get to match up with Zach Strief, who allowed Jacquies Smith to pick up three sacks last week.

"

Congrats to @Jachalp3, winner of @sgw94's Hoss of the Week award for terrorizing Drew Brees http://t.co/bAvrlBrSQR pic.twitter.com/dbPOTa0iEa

— ryan van bibber (@justRVB) September 22, 2015"

Pressure is always the way to affect rusty quarterbacks, and the Panthers have the horses on the defensive line to beat New Orleans’ linemen and wreak havoc in the backfield, disrupting the timing and effectiveness of New Orleans’ horizontal passing game.

Of course, there will be instances in which McCown gets the pass off, and that’s when it will come down to the coverage guys. 

Josh Norman will likely draw the assignment of covering Brandin Cooks, who looks like he will play despite an ankle injury.  That ankle injury probably will limit his top-end speed, but Cooks is fine with the short and intermediate stuff—exactly what the Saints will look for if the Panthers bring pressure.  Cooks only has nine receptions on the season and has yet to really explode after being selected in the first round last year, so you have to think Norman would have the advantage here.

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Norman’s really developing nicely into a shutdown corner.  Last week, he held DeAndre Hopkins to five catches for 53 yards on 11 targets—he’s not Richard Sherman or anything yet, but he’s staking out a claim in the tier right below that. 

Norman has never allowed 100 yards in a game when he’s been targeted, and he hasn’t even gone above 70 since his rookie season, per PFF.  Pro Football Focus has him as the fifth-best cornerback in the league so far and the second-best in terms of pass coverage alone.  If he shuts down Cooks, the Saints will have to rely on the aging Marques Colston out of the slot and underwhelming options like Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead—definitely a far cry from their glory days.

With Jimmy Graham out of town, the Saints have Ben Watson as their tight end.  That shouldn’t be a major problem for Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson to cover; Watson only has five catches for 31 yards down the field.  While trading Graham for Max Unger has shored up New Orleans’ offensive line, it’s taken a massive headache off the field for the Panthers defense.  This isn’t the same Saints offense that has given teams so much trouble in the past.

Offensive Game Plan

This week may be Cam Newton’s time to show off with his arm.

Newton’s 370 yards passing is remarkably low—lower than any other quarterback who has played two complete games this season.  He’s ahead of players who were benched (Brian Hoyer), their replacements (Ryan Mallett) and players who either came in or left early because of injury (Jay Cutler and Johnny Manziel).  

Only the Minnesota Vikings have fewer passing yards than the Panthers do this season, and that’s only because they’ve absorbed six sacks, which count against team passing yards.

On the other hand, the Saints are allowing more than 250 yards a game at the moment through the air.  The 119.5 quarterback rating they’ve allowed is third worst in the league, ahead of just the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears.  Football Outsiders ranks them as the second-worst pass defense in the league so far, just ahead of the Chicago Bears—and the Bears had to face Aaron Rodgers, while the Saints had Jameis Winston.

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Part of this has to do with pressure.  While the Saints have a very good pass-rusher in Cameron Jordan—and the Jordan-Mike Remmers battle will definitely be one to watch this week—they haven’t done a very good job of actually hitting the quarterback so far this season.  They have just three sacks, tied for 21st in the league, and have been giving opposing quarterbacks plenty of time to scan the field and find open receivers.

They did get a spark in the second half against Tampa Bay last week, subbing in undrafted find Bobby Richardson for Akiem Hicks and going lighter and faster in the rush.  It remains to be seen if they’ll do that more against Carolina, but it did seem to give them a little more success against Tampa Bay last week.

So far, however, the Panthers' pass protection has been much improved over last season.  Of the five starting offensive linemen, only Michael Oher has a negative pass-blocking grade, per PFF, and both guards, Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner, have been remarkably solid so far this season:

Player	Pos	QB Sk	QB Ht	QB Hu	Total
Michael Oher	LT	2	0	4	6
Andrew Norwell	LG	0	0	2	2
Ryan Kalil	C	0	0	2	2
Trai Turner	RG	0	0	2	2
Mike Remmers	RT	0	1	2	3
Total	OL	2	1	12	15

Apart from Oher, that’s an incredibly solid line in pass protection so far.  All three inside linemen rank in the top 10 at their respective positions so far, according to PFF, and they lived up admirably to the tough challenge of facing J.J. Watt.

Watt put up some raw statistics—a sack and four tackles, to be precise—but was sometimes manhandled by Turner, Remmers and the rest of the offensive line.  Watt’s +0.3 PFF grade was his lowest grade in his last 16 starts—he was essentially mortal on the day, which is not normally a word you’d use to describe Watt.

"

Watch #Panthers OG @trai_turner absolutely pancake JJ Watt!!! (H/T @misterbonner) pic.twitter.com/pP0T3jMfJe

— CAR Panthers News (@CarPanthersNews) September 22, 2015"

With time, Newton should be able to pick apart the New Orleans secondary, which is both injury-ravaged and poor. 

Jairus Byrd will miss yet another game, leaving Kenny Phillips in to start at free safety—Phillips was just picked up off the street before last week and hadn’t played in an NFL game since 2012 before that.  Keenan Lewis is also questionable with a hip injury, and CFL/AFL veteran Delvin Breaux looks to make another start for him.

The healthiest member of the secondary has been Brandon Browner, but he has not had a good start to his Saints career.  He has been massively penalized this season, flagged twice for holding, once for pass interference in the end zone and once for a face mask.  The Saints secondary is allowing 15.6 yards per reception and a 62.3 percent completion percentage.  That’s bad.

Yes, the Panthers will be without Jerricho Cotchery this week, thanks to his high-ankle sprain, but Ted Ginn and Philly Brown are higher-caliber players than what the Saints secondary offers, and Newton was able to hit them for some big gains last week.  We could also see rookie Devin Funchess get into the swing of things more, and if there was ever a week for him to break out, this is it.

It will also be interesting to see if the Panthers can get their non-Newton running game going.  Jonathan Stewart only has 118 yards on 35 carries so far this season, and he has yet to break 3.7 yards per carry in a game.  The flow for this game probably involves the Panthers taking a lead and trying to sit on it, so they could use more out of their running game this week. 

The Saints have been better against the run this year, but they’re still allowing 4.3 yards per carry.  I don’t think the Panthers will need Stewart in order to win this one, but they’d like to get him going before the schedule picks up after the bye week.  Stewart has averaged 6.7 yards per carry in his last six games against the Saints, so he runs well against them.

Key Players and Matchups

Carolina QB Cam Newton

Newton has been the spark of Carolina’s offense so far.  With receivers being down thanks to injuries and a general lack of elite talent, and the running game not exploding as it did last season, Carolina’s game plan seems to be “let Newton make something happen.”  So far, so good.

"

Watch him somersault into the end zone. Watch him (kinda) stick the landing. Cam Newton IS Superman #HOUvsCAR http://t.co/byjcckZjNB

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2015"

New Orleans has made Josh McCown and Jameis Winston look like very good NFL starters and Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer look like world-beaters in their last four games, stretching back to last season.  Newton may not have one of the top arms in the NFL, nor does he have the best supporting cast, but this is a plus-matchup for him.

New Orleans QB Luke McCown

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press/Associated Press

It isn’t very exciting to simply talk about the two quarterbacks in this matchup, but when you have a career journeyman replacing a future Hall of Famer, it’s impossible not to note him as a key player. 

Two weeks ago, McCown was most notable for somehow getting to star in a Verizon commercial despite only nine career starts.  Now, it’s up to him to try to salvage the Saints’ season after an 0-2 start.

“If some of those backups had a chance in the regular rotation, I bet they would shine,” McCown states in the commercial. 

Well, now’s his chance to prove it.  McCown hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since 2007, but that was against the Panthers—one of only two games he’s ever topped a quarterback rating of 100, as well.  Charles Johnson and Thomas Davis return from that defense, but it’s safe to say that this week’s challenge will be slightly different than that game eight years ago.

New Orleans DL Bobby Richardson

It remains to be seen if the Saints will continue last week’s experiment, placing Bobby Richardson in a more prominent role on defense, but the move seemed to help the team last week.  Along with more rotation work from Obum Gwacham and Kasim Edebali, the Saints allowed just 5.1 yards per play in the second half, as opposed to 6.3 yards per play in the first half.  They also picked up all three of their sacks in the second half.

When a team has been struggling as much as New Orleans has, they have to find a spark somewhere.  Richardson and the backups, in a more prominent rotational role, could be that spark against Carolina.

Carolina DT Kawann Short

If you had to hand out a team MVP after two weeks, you could make a strong argument for Short getting the nod for the Panthers. 

Despite injuries to fellow defensive tackle Star Lotulelei and Mr. Heart of the Defense Luke Kuechly, Short’s been doing serious work against both the pass and run, and he has really led the front seven so far.  He’s yet to record a sack, but PFF has charted him with eight quarterback pressures, as well as ranking him fifth among all defensive tackles so far.

Short against either Tim Lelito or Jahri Evans’ replacement is a mismatch, and the Saints will likely have to double him with Max Unger in order to try to slow him down.  That should give Charles Johnson and Kony Ealy one-on-one matchups, allowing pressure to get to McCown.  It starts with a solid performance up the gut, and that’s where Short can make a massive difference.

Carolina CB Josh Norman

Norman, playing out a contract year, has probably earned himself a chunk of change with his performance so far in 2015.  He’s done very well against the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson, and now he gets to sink his fangs into the Saints and Luke McCown.

His record so far this season is probably boosted by the quality of quarterbacks he has faced—Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallett and now McCown aren’t exactly a murderer’s row. 

Still, he’s taken advantage of these matchups and shut down his targets, stretching back to last season.  His counterparts on Arizona and Tampa Bay—Patrick Peterson and Jonathan Banks, respectively—both did very well against the Saints offense.  Peterson was targeted five times and allowed just one completion, while the Saints only challenged Banks once.  The elements are in place for Norman to have another big day.

Prediction

I can’t predict the Saints to win this one.  They’re missing too many key players due to injury, for starters, and they looked like a very, very poor team in losses to Arizona and Tampa Bay.

The Saints offense just has not found anything resembling a rhythm so far this season, and they’re not going to find it against the fifth-ranked defense in football.  The Panthers haven’t played any real offensive powerhouses yet, but they’re only allowing 13 points per game and allowing quarterbacks to complete only half of their passes.  New Orleans has no rushing game to speak of, and even if it did, Carolina’s been clamping down, allowing less than 80 yards rushing per game.

There's all of that is on top of a defense that was terrible last year and looks even wore this year.  The Saints’ loss to Tampa Bay at home looks even worse when you consider the Tennessee Titans destroyed Tampa Bay the week before—a Tennessee team that was then handled by Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns. 

A loss to the Arizona Cardinals, who have looked like the best team in football, is explainable.  A loss to the Buccaneers is harder to write off at this point.

You can’t write the Saints off entirely after an 0-2 start, and even a loss to Carolina won’t knock them out of the picture entirely.  The season’s not even a quarter over yet and there’s time for anyone to get their feet underneath them and move forward.

That simply won’t happen this week, however.  The Panthers should be able to handle the Saints and their backup quarterback fairly easily.

Final score: Carolina 31, New Orleans 17

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.