Saints vs. Panthers: Full Carolina Game Preview

The Carolina Panthers (2-0) haven’t started a season with three consecutive wins since 2003.  They’ll look to break that streak on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints (0-2) in Carolina’s first divisional game of the season.

In recent years, the Panthers have been doing fairly well against their rivals from the Big Easy.  The teams have split their season series the past two years, and the Panthers actually swept the Saints in a couple of high-scoring games back in 2012.  The last time the two teams met, it was a cakewalk for the Panthers—Cam Newton threw for three touchdowns and scored another on the ground, while Jonathan Stewart added 155 yards rushing as the Panthers won, 41-10.

The Saints finished last season at 7-9, just a half-game behind the Panthers in the division, but things have not started off well for them this year.  They’re 0-2, have yet to score 20 points in a matchup and have averaged less than 80 yards per game on the ground.  They just lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who of course were blown out by the Tennessee Titans the week before.  It’s about as close to a nightmare start as fans could have feared, especially taking Drew Brees’ potential rotator cuff injury into account.

In other words, the Panthers are getting the Saints at precisely the right time.  While the Panthers have been able to shrug off injuries to stars like Kelvin Benjamin and Luke Kuechly, the Saints are floundering, trying to find their footing.  A loss to Carolina wouldn’t quite be a knockout blow for New Orleans’ 2015 season, but it would leave the Saints woozy on the canvas, for sure.

According to Odds Shark, such a knockout appears more likely than not.  While several people have taken the game off the board thanks to the uncertain status of Brees, the lines that are out there have the Panthers as about three-point favorites over the Saints, or roughly the bonus one would expect from home-field advantage. 

The Saints and Panthers were about the same quality last season, so it would make sense that oddsmakers aren’t jumping to too many conclusions after just two games.  They don’t seem to be giving full credence to the fact that Carolina seems to be on the upswing, while New Orleans is still trying to find itself.

Still, this is the sort of game the Panthers really have to win to consider themselves a playoff team.  The Saints are reeling, with question marks now on both sides of the ball.  This is a situation on which good teams capitalize, especially at home.

Will Carolina put together their first 3-0 start since the Super Bowl season of 2003?  Sunday will show us one way or another.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

TV: FOX, with Chris Myers and Ronde Barber announcing for the second time this season

Week 2 Results and Recap

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Newton and the Panthers vaulted over Houston.

Both the Panthers and Saints played tight, nail-biter games at home, with very different outcomes.

Carolina got a boost from Cam Newton, who threw for two touchdown passes and added another on a dramatic somersault flip to beat the Houston Texans, 24-17.  Ted Ginn and Philly Brown caught two long touchdown passes after some early-game struggles, and the offense earned 5.2 yards per carry against what is normally a very stout Houston front.

The game wasn’t decided until the closing seconds, however.  The offense was never able to really pull away from Houston, which had the ball in the red zone with a chance to tie the game with less than two minutes to go, helped out by some penalties on Kony Ealy.  However, Ryan Mallet’s last-chance shot at DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone was a little behind him and fell incomplete, allowing Carolina to kneel out the clock and go to 2-0.

In New Orleans, Jameis Winston picked up his first win as an NFL quarterback.  A week after getting absolutely destroyed by Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans, Winston went 14-for-21 for 207 yards and no interceptions against New Orleans’ secondary, including a touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson in the back of the end zone.

The Saints, meanwhile, turned the ball over three times and couldn’t get the ball into the end zone when down a touchdown as time expired, losing, 26-19.  Drew Brees threw an interception, Mark Ingram and Willie Snead fumbled and the Saints fell into the cellar of the NFC South.

NFC South Standings

Team	Record	Pct.	Notes
Atlanta Falcons	2-0	1.000	Over CAR via conference record
Carolina Panthers	2-0	1.000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1	.500
New Orleans Saints	0-2	.000

The NFC South went 3-1 last week.  Carolina beat Houston, and Atlanta came back to beat the New York Giants.  In interdivisional play, Tampa Bay beat New Orleans.

Note that the Panthers will take possession of first place in the division with a win, regardless of what happens in the Atlanta-Dallas matchup, because it would give Carolina a win in the division.

NFC Wild-Card Standings

Team	Record	Pct.	Notes
Carolina Panthers	2-0	1.000
Washington Redskins	1-1	.500	Over MIN and STL via conference record Over TB via strength of victory
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1	.500	Over MIN and STL via conference record
Minnesota Vikings	1-1	.500	Over STL via league points scored/allowed
St. Louis Rams	1-1	.500	Over SF via divisional record
San Francisco 49ers	1-1	.500
Detroit Lions	0-2	.000	Over CHI, NYG, NO and SEA via conference record
New York Giants	0-2	.000	Over NO and SEA via strength of schedule Over CHI and PHI via conference points scored/allowed
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2	.000	Over NO and SEA via strength of schedule Over CHI via league points scored/allowed
Chicago Bears	0-2	.000	Over NO and SEA via strength of schedule
Seattle Seahawks	0-2	.000	Over NO via conference points scored/allowed
New Orleans Saints	0-2	.000

These wild-card standings are still unofficial, but no matter how you slice it, the Panthers would be a playoff team at this point in time—only five teams in the NFC are undefeated at this point.  The Saints, meanwhile, are all the way back at the bottom of the heap, thanks to their porous defense and lackluster offense.

As it stands now, Carolina would travel to Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs, thanks to their lack of any wins against the NFC.  The fact that they haven't yet had any actual games against NFC teams probably has something to do with that.

News and Notes

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Drew Brees' status for Week 3 is still in some doubt.

Will Drew Brees Play?

As of press time, it’s still unclear as to whether or not Saints quarterback Drew Brees will play in this matchup.

News has gone everywhere from fear that Brees’ torn rotator cuff could cost him several games, as reported by NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, to Brees himself saying he’s “pretty confident” he’ll be able to play on Sunday, as reported by NOLA.com’s Evan Woodbery.

Here’s what we know for sure.

Drew Brees has a shoulder injury.  The injury does appear to be to his rotator cuff, but ESPN’s Ed Werder has confirmed that MRIs indicate that it is not, in fact, a tear, but merely a bruise.  As this is a soft-tissue injury, it’s harder to precisely diagnose how it will affect Brees—it’s not like a broken bone, which has a fairly set recovery time.

Brees’ status will likely be determined by how much pain and swelling is present in the shoulder come game time, as well as how much strength he’s able to put into his passes.  It’s something that quarterbacks in the past have played through, but it’s also something for which quarterbacks have missed multiple weeks.  It’s very much a case-by-case situation.

Brees did not throw on Wednesday, according to the Times-Picayune, and is taking things day by day.  While he says he is pretty confident he’ll play on Sunday, he also admitted that the injury affected several throws against Tampa Bay, via the Times-Picayune.

If Brees can’t go, the job should fall to Luke McCown.  McCown has thrown just one pass in the last three seasons—an incomplete pass in 2013, for the record—and is essentially a clipboard-holder.  McCown has only once thrown 100 passes in a season, back in 2007 in Tampa Bay, where he put up a somewhat respectable 91.7 quarterback rating.  He has a career record of 2-7 as a starter.  Suffice to say, he would not be able to run New Orleans’ offense to the same level as a healthy Brees.

If Brees starts, expect to see a lot of shorter passes, as the injury will sap him of velocity.  The Saints will have go horizontal with their passing routes and try to gain yardage after the catch rather than with deep bombs.

ESPN: Panthers May Regret Not Inking CB Josh Norman Before the Season

Josh Norman’s been off to a hot start this year, playing what might be the best game of his career against Jacksonville in Week 1 and doing an admirable job against DeAndre Hopkins and Houston in Week 2.

So far, Pro Football Focus has graded Norman as the fifth-best cornerback in football and second only to Denver’s Aqib Talib when it comes to pass coverage.  Opposing quarterbacks have a quarterback rating of just 46.3 targeting him, with just nine completions on 21 targets for 55 yards.

ESPN’s David Newton thinks the big start for Norman could earn him a massive new contract, up around the $10 million-per-year range that top cornerbacks make.

According to Over the Cap, Norman currently is making just over $1.5 million this season, the last year of his rookie contract.

It is not general manager Dave Gettleman’s strategy at all to negotiate in midseason, and talks between Norman’s agent and Panthers broke down earlier this month, according to the Charlotte Observer's Joseph Person.  As a free agent, Norman would certainly get a raise from what he’s getting now, but Newton’s idea of him making the eight-digit-per-year contract range is probably a bit premature.  After all, Norman hasn’t even started a full season yet; his relative inexperience could lower any potential contract.

The floor of Norman’s next contract should be at about $6 million a year; that’s what Cary Williams received to sign with Seattle this offseason, as noted by Over the Cap.  If Norman continues to play like he has so far this season, that number’s only going to increase, but two games is still a small sample size.  We’ll have to wait and see how Norman does the rest of the year before thinking about his potential free agency.

ESPN’s Power Rankings: No Respect for 2-0 Panthers

The Panthers may have come out of the gates undefeated, but not everyone’s convinced quite yet.

Take ESPN’s power rankings, for example.  The Panthers, despite being on a six-game regular-season winning streak, sit at No. 14.  The 1-1 Steelers, Bills, Chiefs and Chargers all rank higher than Carolina does, as do the 0-2 Seahawks.  This makes the Panthers the worst-rated undefeated team in football to this point.

ESPN did note their strong defensive record, noting that “over their six-game winning streak, the Panthers have allowed 11.5 points per game, 279.7 yards per game and forced 13 turnovers.”  Still, the voters saw fit to vault the New York Jets, who haven’t had a winning season since 2010, over them this week.

Yes, it’s true that the Panthers have not exactly played a tough slate yet.  Houston and Jacksonville don’t threaten too many opponents, and Carolina’s first real test won’t come until Week 6 at Seattle.  However, 14 still seems rather low for how well the team’s been playing to this point.

Other systems more concerned with data and facts rather than opinions have the Panthers rated higher.  Football Outsider’s raw VOA—which is not yet adjusted for quality of opponent, due to the small sample size—has Carolina as the eighth-best team in football at the moment, thanks in large part to the third-ranked defense.  Their DAVE statistic—which at the moment takes 25 percent of the performance from this season and 75 percent of the preseason projections—has them ranked 12th.

BeatGraphs, which just pays attention to who beat who to produce objective ratings, actually has them as the best team in football—or, rather, tied with the Patriots.  Their win over Jacksonville counts for a lot here, as they upset Miami, who beat Washington, who upset St. Louis, who upset Seattle.

Are the Panthers the best team in football?  That seems a bit ridiculous to say after only two weeks, neither of which were exactly commanding victories.  It also seems fair to rank the 0-2 Seahawks above them, thanks to the fact that Seattle played tight games against really good teams and are the defending NFC champions.  However, it seems odd to have Carolina as the worst 2-0 team in football right now, considering, for example, Dallas’ struggles and now its loss of two key players for massive parts of the season.

If the Panthers keep winning, they’ll surely improve in the objective rankings.  There’s still a stigma of being an “undeserved playoff team” around them at the moment, however, and it will take time to get rid of it entirely.

Injuries

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol.

While an injury to a starting quarterback always dominates headlines, the Saints actually have a notably smaller injury list than the Panthers do this week, according to their respective official websites.

Panthers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Richie Brockel	TE	Shoulder	Full
Star Lotulelei	DT	Foot	Full
Fozzy Whittaker	RB	Shoulder	Limited
Wes Horton	DE	Shoulder	Limited
Jonathan Stewart	RB	Knee	None
Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Ankle	None
Daryl Williams	OT	Knee	None
Trai Turner	OG	Knee	None
Charles Johnson	DE	Hamstring	None
Kyle Love	DT	Knee	None
Luke Kuechly	LB	Concussion	None
Roman Harper	S	Non-Injury	None

• Richie Brockel is making progress on the sprained shoulder he suffered against Miami, having been moved up to full participation this week after sitting out most of last week.  He should supplant Brandon Williams as the third tight end.
• Star Lotulelei is also making progress, returning to full practice for the first time since he suffered the stress reaction in his right foot.  Ron Rivera said that Lotulelei has “no issues,” via the Charlotte Observer’s Joe Person, so he should supplant Kyle Love as the starting defensive tackle this week.
• Fozzy Whittaker seemed to injure his shoulder against Houston, though the severity is still unclear.  He was limited in practice on Wednesday, so he’s one to watch. Cameron Artis-Payne, who was inactive against Houston, might have to be active to be behind Jonathan Stewart this week.
• Wes Horton was on the list last week with the same shoulder problem and was just fine playing against Houston as the reserve left end.  There’s no significant reason to expect him to miss any more time.
• Jonathan Stewart’s on the injury list again, but just like last week, this is probably a veteran’s rest day more than anything else.  The Panthers are just managing his reps to keep him fresh for a long season.
• Jerricho Cotchery was carted off the field against Houston, came back to catch a pass and then left again.  It’s a high ankle sprain, according to ESPN, and those tend to stick around for multiple weeks.  This might be Devin Funchess’ time to step into a more prominent role.  He has notably not yet been ruled out, however, as noted by the Black and Blue Review.
• Daryl Williams is still out with his sprained MCL, and won’t be back until after the bye week in all likelihood.  Amini Silatolu remains the top swing tackle for now.
• Trai Turner suffered a left knee injury against Houston but returned to the game.  Wednesday was just a rest day for him, according to the Associated Press’ Steve Reed.
• Charles Johnson also missed practice, with the Panthers noting it as lingering effects from the hamstring that kept him out of preseason.  Again, this is just a veteran’s rest day.
• Kyle Love is also getting a vet’s rest day, and his main role will likely be played by Star Lotulelei anyway.
• Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol, but progress is being made.  He went through some non-contact drills on Wednesday, as noted by the Black and Blue Review.  The next step would be to be cleared by an independent neurologist.  If he can’t go, A.J. Klein will get another start; he’s been quite adequate.
• Roman Harper doesn’t even belong on the injury report, and the Panthers didn’t pretend to give him a minor injury designation, just giving him a vet’s day off.

Saints Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed Practice
Drew Brees	QB	Shoulder	Limited
Dannell Ellerbe	LB	Toe	Limited
Brandin Cooks	WR	Ankle	None
Jahri Evans	OG	Knee	None
Keenan Lewis	CB	Hip	None
Jairus Byrd	S	Knee	None

• We discussed Drew Brees above in detail; the Panthers are preparing as if he will play, according to the Charlotte Observer's Jonathan Jones.
• Dannell Ellerbe is making strides recovering from the turf toe he’s had since the beginning of the preseason, returning to practice this week on a limited basis.  Rookie Stephone Anthony has been starting in his absence.
• It’s unclear when Brandin Cooks suffered his ankle injury; he played nearly all of last week against Tampa Bay.  Losing the dynamic Cooks in addition to Brees might be a death knell for New Orleans’ offense and would put more pressure on Brandon Coleman to step up.  Keep an eye out on this one this week.
• Jahri Evans missed practice with a knee injury.  He has only allowed one quarterback pressure this season, according to PFF, so he’s a key part of the Saints offensive plan.  Evans played the entire game last week, so it’s unclear when he suffered an injury; this might just be a rest day.  Veteran Mike McGlynn would likely be his replacement if he can’t go.
• Keenan Lewis remains sidelined after hip surgery and will likely be out another week.  He did return to the practice field on Wednesday, according to Evan Woodberry of the Times-Picayune, but didn’t actually participate in drills.  Delvin Breaux has been starting in his place.
• Similarly, Jairus Byrd was seen at practice but did not participate, as he continues to recover from the lateral meniscus tear he suffered last season.  He’s taking strides forward, but his status for this week’s game is still in question.  Rafael Bush was starting for him but tore his pectoral muscle in Week 1 and is on IR.  Either Jamarca Sanford or Kenny Phillips should start for him.

Key Matchups

Rainier Ehrhardt/Associated Press

Charles Johnson and Zach Strief will battle all day.

TE Greg Olsen vs. SS Kenny Vaccaro

Kenny Vaccaro had some serious issues dealing with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins last week in Tampa Bay.  Jamies Winston went to that matchup four times, completing three passes.  Admittedly, it was only for 34 yards, but the route seemed to be there whenever Winston looked for it. 

The week before, the Saints tried to cover Cardinals tight end Darren Fells with their cornerbacks, and Fells had four catches for 82 yards and a touchdown.

Last season, the Saints had some issues covering Olsen.  He caught 13 passes against them for 92 yards and a touchdown.  That’s a lot of receptions, but nothing too far downfield—his longest went for just 16 yards.  It was a lot of paper cuts, in other words, but no game-breaking throws down the field.  With the Panthers receiving corps still somewhat questionable, a big day for Olsen would go a long way to opening up the offense.

Panthers Receivers vs. New Orleans Secondary

NFL.com is painting this one as a matchup between the worst wide receiving corps versus the worst secondary in the league.  That seems a bit harsh.  While it is true that Carolina has had issues with drops and New Orleans has had issues with penalties, calling it worst-versus-worst is a bit of hyperbole.

Actually, if you just look at the raw stats, the Panthers corps has been about league average so far.  They don’t have a single receiver in the top 32 in terms of yardage, but Ted Ginn, Philly Brown and Jerricho Cotchery all are in the top 68.  They don’t have a No. 1 receiver but have at least a couple No. 2s.  That’s more than some teams can say so far, such as Philadelphia. 

Of course, the Panthers look to be without Cotchery for this one, but calling them the worst receiving corps in football just seems harsh. They may have a point when it comes to the Saints secondary, however. 

Brandon Browner is the second-lowest-graded cornerback in football through two weeks, according to PFF, and only Damian Swann has graded out positively so far.  The Bears should probably rank below them through two weeks, but the banged-up Saints secondary has been playing very poorly.  This is clearly not the strength of either team, but Carolina should have a slight advantage.

DEs Charles Johnson and Kony Ealy vs. OTs Terron Armstead and Zach Strief

The Panthers didn’t get much of an outside pass rush against Houston, despite their offensive line injuries.  Johnson, Ealy, Wes Horton and Mario Addison combined for no sacks, two quarterback hits and six quarterback hurries, per PFF. 

Ealy had a couple of killer penalties on Houston’s potential game-tying drive at the end of the game, and Johnson was more or less taken out of the picture in the pass rush, first by Jeff Adams and then by Kendall Lamm.

The Saints’ offensive tackles are the strong part of their line, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t had their issues.  Zach Strief, at right tackle, gave up three sacks against Tampa Bay, with Jacquies Smith getting around the edge on a consistent basis. 

However, both Armstead and Strief played very well against Carolina last season, allowing no sacks and no quarterback hits in the two matchups, according to PFF.  Johnson and Ealy had some success hurrying the quarterback but never could reach Brees.  Whether it’s a banged-up Brees or a rusty McCown back there this week, the Panthers will be looking for a little more out of their ends.

X-Factors

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Will Cam Newton's arm, rather than his legs, be an X-Factor this week?

Panthers X-Factor: QB Cam Newton

It might be a little unexciting to list the starting quarterback as a key player—after all, isn’t the starting quarterback a key player in every game a team plays?  Still, New Orleans is on a streak of allowing passers to look great against them, and there’s room for Cam Newton and the much-maligned Panthers receiving corps to shine in this one.

Here are the stats of the last four quarterbacks to face off against New Orleans, stretching back to last season:

• Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay: 14-for-21, 207 yards, one touchdown, 114.6 QB rating
• Carson Palmer, Arizona: 19-for-32, 307 yards, three touchdowns, 122.8 QB rating
• Josh McCown, Tampa Bay: 14-for-23, 115 yards, one touchdown, one interception, 70.0 QB rating
• Matt Ryan, Atlanta: 30-for-40, 322 yards, one touchdown, 106.5 QB rating

There’s clearly room to take advantage of New Orleans’ secondary here; five of the last six quarterbacks New Orleans has faced, including Cam Newton, have found success.  This might be the sort of game that stops announces from calling the Panthers passing game remedial.

Saints X-Factor: DL Bobby Richardson

In the second half against Tampa Bay, with New Orleans struggling to get any pressure on Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers did something bold: They benched starter Akiem Hicks and plugged in undrafted rookie Bobby Richardson out of Indiana. 

It helped, at least somewhat—Richardson nearly picked up a sack on Winston, and the defense as a whole clamped down a little bit in the second half.

Going with Richardson gave the Saints a lighter, faster lineup—Richardson is a good 30 pounds lighter than Hicks.  He’s also more versatile than Hicks—he can play either end or tackle and even can slide in to go heads-up with the center on occasion.  He’s an interesting prospect who went undrafted but has looked very intriguing in his first two NFL games. 

Richardson gave the Saints pass rush a little more juice against Tampa Bay.  Might he play the same role this week?

Prediction: Panthers 31, Saints 17

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Michael Oher and the Panthers will ride into first place in the division.

Actually giving a prediction for this one is tough with Drew Brees’ status undecided, but everything about this one feels like the Panthers have the opportunity to run up a multiple-touchdown victory against a division opponent.

Remember that with a healthy Drew Brees, the Panthers blew the Saints out of the Superdome last season by the score of 41-10.  Remember that since that matchup, the Saints have lost Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas and Kenny Stills from the offense.  Remember that their secondary, which was so bad last season, is banged up at this point.

Watch the footage of the Tampa Bay game again.  The Saints couldn’t get out of their own way.  Not only did they turn the ball over three times, but they committed penalty after penalty after penalty—10 of them, as a matter of fact, for 115 yards, including a painful interference call in the end zone and a facemask on Brandon Browner.

The Saints actually put the ball on the ground five times—they were lucky to recover three of their own fumbles.  They struggled to get any pressure on Jameis Winston, giving him all sorts of time to find his receiver against the subpar secondary. 

Football Outsiders ranks the Saints as the 29th-best defense in football so far this season, and that’s not yet adjusted for the quality of the opponent—Tampa Bay has yet to put fear in the heart of anyone, though Arizona’s been good so far.

And now they’ll either be forced to start a limp-armed Drew Brees, struggling to play though pain with reduced velocity, or have to stick in Luke McCown to throw to a depleted receiving corps?  That doesn’t bode well at all for an offense that’s still trying to find an offensive identity for this season in the absence of Jimmy Graham.

It's difficult to see the Saints turning all that around in one week to beat an undefeated team on the road.  The Panthers haven’t been the prettiest team in the league by far, but they’ve done more than enough to get the job done.  They’ll do so again this week, picking up a divisional win and moving into first place in the NFC South.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.