Patriots vs. Bills: Full New England Game Preview
During the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, the Buffalo Bills have generally represented a Washington Generals-type punching bag for the New England Patriots. The Bills have beaten the Patriots just three times since 2001, and one of those wins came during last season's Week 17 finale, when the top-seeded Pats sat the majority of their starters while resting up for the postseason.
But times are changing at Orchard Park under Rex Ryan, who has had a borderline obsession with conquering the Foxborough bully over the past six years. Ryan's Bills made an emphatic statement in stifling the Indianapolis Colts' high-powered offense in a dominating 27-14 win that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated.
Ralph Wilson Stadium has always been a hornet's nest whenever the Patriots come to town, and with a true blue playoff contender to cheer for, the Buffalo home crowd might present the most hostile environment New England faces all season. New England is a slight favorite to claim its 26th win in its last 29 tries against the Bills, but it certainly won't be as breezy as the Week 1 homecoming.
As the Patriots brace themselves for a Bills squad hungry for national respect, let's take a look at the state of the team and the most critical matchups to consider for Sunday's contest.
Week 1 Results and Recap
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The Patriots claimed a 28-21 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2015 season opener, but the game was only briefly in doubt during the second half. New England jumped out to a 21-3 lead, and while the Steelers trimmed the lead to a single possession in the fourth quarter, the Patriots led by at least one touchdown for the final three quarters, keeping Pittsburgh's comeback attempt at an arm's length.
Against a team he's shredded throughout his career, Tom Brady was brilliant in his much-anticipated 2015 debut, tossing four touchdowns amid a 25-of-32, 288-yard performance. Despite a lackluster preseason and makeshift interior offensive line, Brady appeared in complete control the entire contest, aided by Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and breakout running back Dion Lewis.
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense piled up plenty of yards, with DeAngelo Williams' 127-yard performance the most surprising (and from a Pats perspective, distressing) performance. But while Antonio Brown won the majority of his matchups against Malcolm Butler, the second-year corner did well to prevent Brown from taking over the game, holding him out of the end zone until a junk-time score with two seconds remaining.
Against the depleted Steelers, that was enough for New England to claim a comfortable win. The Patriots will need to fare much better against a Bills offense that will be happy to pound the rock more than the Steelers did, but as we'll discuss shortly, the defensive game plan will be drastically different in Week 2. For now, everything is rosy in Foxborough following an exhausting offseason.
News and Notes
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Gilmore Wants Gronk
In Week 1, Pittsburgh's professed confidence in its ability to cover Rob Gronkowski became a postgame punchline following Gronk's three-touchdown performance, during which the Steelers left the All-Pro tight end uncovered twice for huge gains. That hasn't stopped top Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore from exhibiting similar bravado, telling the Buffalo News' Tyler Dunne he wants Gronk duty on Sunday:
"“I hope I get ‘Gronk,’ to be honest with you,” Gilmore said. “We’ll see what the coaching staff says...Because I know the ball’s going to him.”
It'd make sense for the Buffalo Bills to use this 6-foot-1, 190-pound fourth-year veteran. Gilmore might've been the best player on the field in Buffalo’s 27-14 win over Indianapolis. The cornerback who was ready to trail the opposition’s No. 1 receiver this year was left alone on receivers all game and responded with four pass break-ups. But those were wide receivers. Now, he wants to take on this 6-foot-6, 265-pound beast of a tight end.
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Whomever the Bills use to cover Gronk, they'll hope for better results than the disaster that has generally befallen Buffalo in past seasons. In seven games against his hometown team, Gronkowski has compiled nine touchdowns, his most against any single opponent, and 77.6 receiving yards per game, his highest total against any AFC East opponent.
It's rare to see corners move inside to shadow tight ends. Patriots fans may remember Aqib Talib shadowing Jimmy Graham in New England's 2013 matchup against the New Orleans Saints, but in general, moving cornerbacks into the box places them in too much traffic and makes their gaps prime targets on running plays. Gilmore might not draw Gronkowski, but as we'll discuss later, he's certainly a vital chess piece on the Bills defense.
Brady Best QB of Week 1
Marcus Mariota and his perfect quarterback rating swallowed up most of the hype surrounding passers following Week 1, but by at least one metric, the Titans' hotshot rookie wasn't the best quarterback of the week. Football Outsiders' Vince Verhei, using the site's DYAR metric, noted that Brady provided the most cumulative value among Week 1 quarterbacks:
"You have probably heard that Brady at one point completed 19 passes in a row at one point. Now, there was a DPI and a sack mixed in that stretch, but whatever, that's cool. The thing is, 19 straight completions actually undersells how effective Brady was in the middle portion of this game.
In today's NFL, many completions are actually bad plays. In 2014, only 57 percent of all completions gained first downs. With that in mind, I now inform you that in one stretch of this game Brady picked up 13 first downs in 14 dropbacks. And three of those were touchdowns! Brady completed 13 passes in that stretch for 136 yards, and also drew a DPI for 28 yards.
His only "bad" play in that sequence was still a 3-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 9, and he threw a touchdown on the next snap.
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DYAR, or defense-adjusted yards or average, measures how many yards of value a player provided compared to the expected average, then adjusts that for opponent strength. Mariota may have surpassed Brady had he thrown as many passes—the rookie attempted just 16 passes over three quarters, while Brady played the whole game and threw 32 times—but that shouldn't diminish the latter's remarkable efficiency.
Buy Into Lewis' Fantasy Stock?
We don't usually touch on fantasy angles in these articles, and part of that stems from the clear stratification on the Patriots roster: Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are top-tier options, while Julian Edelman is a middling fantasy value who gets a boost in points-per-reception (PPR) formats. Other than that, the Pats are far too committee-based offensively to recommend any individual skill-position player.
However, at least one fantasy analyst has cut against that grain, recommending passing back Dion Lewis after his 19-touch, 150-yard showing against the Steelers. SI.com's Michael Beller had qualms about Lewis' future workload with LeGarrette Blount returning from suspension, but he also sees Lewis as a potential flex play when bye weeks begin:
"Lewis looked like he can be a real weapon for the Patriots, totaling 120 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches. Now, he’s probably not going to get 15 carries too often with LeGarrette Blount returning next week, but it’s clear he is on Bill Belichick’s good side. How do we know? Well, he put the ball on the turf, which usually earns a player a one-way ticket to the bench from Belichick. Lewis was right back in there on New England’s next play from scrimmage.
At the very least, he’s going to have a role as a receiver out of the backfield for the Patriots. He’s unlikely to be more than a depth back, but those are crucial players to have when the bye-week portion of the schedule begins.
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Lewis has been extremely efficient on a per-play basis, both through the preseason and in Week 1, but the volume is unlikely to be there to make him a worthy play in standard leagues. For reference, Shane Vereen averaged just 9.25 touches per game while occupying a similar role last season. In deeper leagues, though, Lewis might be worth a flyer for potentially juicy midseason matchups against Washington and the New York Giants.
Latest Injury News
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| Patriots | Bills | ||||||
| Player | Position | Injury | Status | Player | Position | Injury | Status |
| Dominique Easley | DT | Hip | DNP | Marquise Goodwin | WR | Ribs | DNP |
| Ryan Wendell | C/G | Illness | Limited | Percy Harvin | WR | Hip | DNP |
| Travaris Cadet | RB | Hamstring | Full | Tony Steward | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Trey Flowers | DE | Knee | Full | Corey Graham | S | Concussion | Limited |
| Tavon Wilson | S | Quad | Full | ||||
As expected, the Patriots' only major question mark coming out of Week 1 was Dominique Easley. The 3-technique went down with a scary-looking injury on New England's first defensive series, but NESN's Doug Kyed reported the 2014 first-rounder is only expected to miss one to two weeks with a relatively minor hip pointer injury. Considering Easley's history of major knee injuries, that's probably a best-case scenario for the Patriots.
In Easley's absence, rookie Geneo Grissom surprisingly led all interior defensive linemen with 32 defensive snaps, or 44 percent of the defense's total. That night, the Pats largely went with their smaller sub-package front, with three edge defenders in Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard leading the defensive linemen in snaps. However, against the power-oriented Buffalo offense, expect bigger-bodied linemen such as Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch to see a big uptick in snaps.
Buffalo is in relatively solid shape, though Percy Harvin's hip ailment is something to keep an eye on. The injury dates back to the preseason, and the veteran received pain-killing injections during training camp, reported by Mike Rodak of ESPN. Harvin appeared his typically explosive self in catching all five of his targets against Indianapolis, however, so his inclusion on Buffalo's injury report is likely precautionary.
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Key Matchups
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Patriots Front 7 vs. Bills Offensive Line
This is an incredibly broad matchup that happens to entail roughly half the players on the field, so to be more specific, we're homing in on how the Pats fare against Buffalo's power personnel. According to snap counts from Football Outsiders, the Bills played Jerome Felton on 30 of the team's 53 offensive snaps against the Colts (51 percent). Blocking tight end Matthew Mulligan played 20 offensive snaps (34.3 percent).
That's a clear indication of offensive coordinator Greg Roman's preference for "12" and "22" personnel, which is hardly a surprise if you remember Roman's offense with the San Francisco 49ers the past few seasons. Buffalo ran tons of power-rushing concepts in Week 1, often pulling guards Richie Incognito and John Miller to create between-the-tackles holes for LeSean McCoy.
Despite their poor showing against DeAngelo Williams in Week 1, the Patriots should theoretically fare well against the run this season given the depth on the front seven. However, Week 2 will test that assumption, and if New England can't stop what most observers can see coming, that should raise red flags about the viability of the unit Bill Belichick has built his defense around.
Patriots Interior Offensive Line vs. Bills Defensive Tackles
Another multi-player matchup, this one holds the key to both New England's offensive efficacy and Tom Brady's general safety. The Patriots skated by in Week 1 with an interior of David Andrews at center and Josh Kline, Tre' Jackson and Shaq Mason rotating at the guard spots, but the Bills interior defensive line is a massive step up from what the Steelers offered.
Fresh off his one-game suspension and $96 million extension, Marcell Dareus gives Buffalo arguably the league's best defensive tackle tandem next to steady vet Kyle Williams. Though Ryan's system is technically a 3-4, it's more of an amoeba look that typically utilizes four-man fronts, allowing the Bills to preserve the 4-3 personnel they assembled last year under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.
Ryan uses blitzes to wreak havoc, but the real key to disrupting Tom Brady's timing comes from the interior push. If the callow interior can't stop Dareus and Williams from throwing off New England's passing game, it could become a long afternoon for the Patriots offense.
Julian Edelman vs. Stephon Gilmore
In placing constant pressure on Andrew Luck in Week 1, the Bills were able to force the ball out of Luck's hands much faster than usual. Consequently, a Colts offense that relies on yards after the catch literally had no room to breathe against a Bills secondary that was on top of nearly every hot route Luck threw to on Sunday. After averaging 5.97 yards after the catch last year, seventh in the league, the Colts averaged just 3.15 YAC, per Sporting Charts.
That should concern Patriots fans, as the New England passing game is built upon a similar foundation. No player is more effective at slipping away from coverage than Julian Edelman, who showed no rust from missing the entire preseason en route to 11 catches on 12 targets for 97 yards against the Steelers. Assuming the Bills bring the same pressure against Brady, Edelman figures to represent the quarterback's safety blanket on a similarly high percentage of dropbacks this Sunday.
Gilmore is a tougher cover than any corner Pittsburgh had, though, and the budding defensive back shut down Andre Johnson (T.Y. Hilton typically lined up against rookie Ronald Darby). Since Buffalo doesn't switch its corners, perhaps the Patriots will try to keep Edelman away from Gilmore as often as possible. When the Bills play man concepts, though, expect Buffalo's top corner to home in on Edelman and try to prevent him from slipping into the open field.
Matchup X-Factors
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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: Jerod Mayo
The senior member of the Patriots defense was virtually invisible against Pittsburgh, playing just 11 defensive snaps (15 percent). As Mike Reiss observed, Belichick relegated Jerod Mayo to base-package duty, handing over every-down duties to three-down star Jamie Collins:
"At LB, Jerod Mayo usually came on in base defense when PIT brought on FB in more of power look. Jamie Collins wore green dot, leading huddle
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) September 11, 2015"
That's not really a surprise considering that Mayo has played just 12 games the past two years because of injuries, as well as Collins' breakout 2014 season. However, while Mayo's long-term role might be hazy, he should be a central part of the game plan in Week 2 as the Patriots figure to play mostly base personnel against Buffalo.
Additionally, though we can't be sure how Belichick currently views Mayo, he's traditionally been solid in coverage, making him a possible option in bracket concepts against tight end Charles Clay. Mayo isn't likely to play every down like he used to, especially early in the year as he recovers from last October's torn patellar. Returning to the field where he suffered that debilitating injury, look for Mayo to take a big step in his comeback as he sees his snap count soar against the Bills.
Bills X-Factor of the Week: Percy Harvin
Sammy Watkins is unquestionably Buffalo's top receiver, but Percy Harvin was its most effective in Week 1. The Bills clearly constructed a game plan predicated on getting the ball to its playmakers in space while also minimizing the mental burden on Tyrod Taylor, who found himself throwing lots of screens, slants and wheel routes to Harvin and LeSean McCoy.
Harvin was the recipient of a 51-yard touchdown toss from Taylor, a score that permanently changed the complexion of the game against Indianapolis in Buffalo's favor. After three disappointing years in the wilderness, it was an encouraging showing for Harvin, who was once the league's most dangerous Swiss Army knife in Minnesota.
It's too soon to suggest he's recaptured that form, but for a team running a necessarily simplified passing scheme, Harvin is the perfect player to add spice to an otherwise bland passing game.
Look for Harvin to receive plenty of time in the slot, most likely against Bradley Fletcher, who occupied that role against Pittsburgh. Fletcher had some issues in Week 1, and while he won't be playing as many vertical concepts in Week 2, Harvin's speed could create a mismatch downfield. After his game-changing play against the Colts, you can bet Buffalo will mix in another shot to Harvin at some point on Sunday.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Bills 20
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Five of New England's past six meetings against a Rex Ryan side have been decided by three points or under, including both of the Pats' 2014 meetings against the hapless New York Jets. Ryan is a brilliant defensive mind who always saves his best for Brady and Belichick; with his most talented defensive personnel, Pats fans should be anxious as to what he might cook up this Sunday.
The Patriots hold a massive edge at quarterback, but Buffalo might be the more talented team from one to 53. Consequently, the key for New England will be to avoid providing the lifelines the Bills might need with their limited offense. Turnovers and big chunks through the passing game, which Buffalo needs to minimize the burden on Taylor, are mistakes that could cost the Patriots the win.
The margin for error is certainly smaller than in most weeks, especially since Buffalo appears well-equipped to stifle the Patriots' rhythm-based passing offense. However, the Pats have proved capable of dissecting Buffalo's excellent defense when they afford Brady enough pass protection and force Buffalo to maintain long drives on offense.
In last season's game at Buffalo, the Pats were held scoreless in the first quarter and had just seven points until late in the second. However, a few halftime adjustments opened the floodgates en route to a 37-22 win.
As tough as the Bills defense looks, the Pats are capable of running away from anyone when firing on all cylinders. That kind of complete performance is a tough ask this early in the season, but the guess here is the Pats execute well enough in the high-leverage situations to stave off Buffalo's upset bid.
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