SEC Football 2015: Bold Predictions for How the Conference Will Turn Out
The waiting is over. College football and, more specifically, SEC football are back.
As the season gets under way (yes, technically Vanderbilt and South Carolina already played), we’re going to discuss what to expect from a pretty wide-open SEC this season.
It seems like almost anybody can win the SEC West, and as importantly, it seems like nobody can win the East (someone has to, right?). So, let’s spend a brief moment separating pretenders from sleepers from contenders and predict who ends up putting that 2015 SEC Championship trophy in its case at the end of it all.
We’ll break down the conference into four tiers: The “No Chance” tier, the “Be Serious” tier, the “Yeah but No” tier and the “Definitely Have a Shot” tier.
Be sure to post your predictions in the comments section. Happy college football season, SEC fans.
No Chance
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These guys don’t have a snowball’s chance in Death Valley.
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt lost its season opener to Western Kentucky 14-12. Need we continue?
There’s no shame in losing to the Hilltoppers. Not only did they finish 8-5 and win a bowl game last season, but they even received a vote to be in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. However, this is about who has a chance to win or at least compete within arguably the nation’s toughest conference.
That won’t be Vandy.
Prediction: 4-8 overall, 1-7 SEC
Kentucky
The Wildcats won five of their first six games in 2014, with only a triple-overtime loss in the Swamp keeping them from a 6-0 start.
But…then they lost their last six games by an average of 22 points to miss out on being bowl-eligible.
Putting Kentucky and Vandy in the same section isn’t really fair, as the Wildcats have more talent on both sides of the ball. But, realistically, Kentucky fans should probably be thrilled if their team makes a bowl this season.
That’s about as good as it’s going to get.
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 2-6 SEC
Be Serious
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These are the teams whose fans you just have to tell, "Come on, man. Be serious."
Missouri
Yeah, Missouri has won back-to-back Eastern Division titles. No, that’s nothing to sneeze at.
But be serious. If you stuck this team in the West, where it geographically belongs, it would also end up on the south side of the standings.
That said, it does play in the East, and really that’s almost anyone’s game. Still, don’t expect much from the Tigers.
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 4-4 SEC
South Carolina
The Gamecocks survived opening night over North Carolina despite losing starting quarterback Connor Mitch and a questionable call to go for it on fourth down rather than kick a field goal to go up by seven late.
South Carolina’s defense is bad, and nobody really knows what it has at quarterback yet. That’s not a good recipe heading into a season.
The Gamecocks must improve their 91st-ranked defense from last year with new defensive coordinator Jon Hoke and hope that Connor Mitch can be better than Steve Spurrier’s usual crop of QBs at Carolina.
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 4-4 SEC
Florida
Florida should be better than last season. But it’s really anyone’s guess as to how much better.
A new head coach, a new offense, a new defensive coordinator—what does it all mean for the once-mighty Gators?
Probably progress. As in, a work in progress.
Treon Harris is getting the “start” against New Mexico State, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything, and we still don’t know who the Gators' starting QB will be in Week 2.
Last year’s defense was good enough for fourth in the nation. The offense was 104th. Expect some regression to the mean on both accounts.
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-4 SEC
Ole Miss
This one is simple. The Rebels probably peaked in 2014.
Yes, Hugh Freeze has increased the win total every year he’s been there. But the 7-0 start Ole Miss jumped out to really cemented its season.
It's not going to beat Alabama again. It's not going to beat Auburn.
The Rebels lost three of their last four SEC games and got lit up by TCU in the Peach Bowl to close out the year. You can argue that the three teams they lost to at the end of the season were all really good teams, but that’s life in the SEC West.
Hopefully, Rebels fans enjoyed last season. At least the tailgates will be legendary.
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 3-5 SEC
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is the first SEC West school to appear on the list. The Bulldogs’ 2014 season was one of the best in program history, winning their first nine games and finishing the year at 10-3.
But Mississippi State has lost so many starters on both sides of the ball that it’s really hard to tell what this team is going to look like. It will have a Heisman candidate under center in Dak Prescott, and with Dan Mullen at the helm, it won’t be an easy win.
But, someone has to finish last in the West, and without really knowing who the Bulldogs are, it very well could be them.
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-4 SEC
Texas A&M
The Aggies make their appearance in this section for one reason. Their defense was trash last season.
They ranked 103rd in the country and dead last in the SEC in total defense, and while they hired defensive guru John Chavis from LSU, a one-season turnaround isn’t likely.
The offense could absolutely carry the team, but winning games in shootout fashion isn’t exactly a reliable way to go about your season. If Chavis can get the defense turned around, the Aggies might be able to surprise, but that’s a lot to ask of a new coach.
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-4 SEC
Yeah but No
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These are the teams that could actually have a shot at doing something this season but are much more likely to not.
LSU
If the Tigers could ever get themselves a legit quarterback, they’d be nearly impossible to beat.
The defense will be elite as always, but scoring points is likely going to be a problem.
LSU ranked 74th in scoring offense last season, averaging 27.6 points per game. Defensively, it had the third-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 16.4 points per game.
Expect much of the same this season—which means, expect last season.
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 4-4 SEC
Tennessee
At some point, the hype train pulled into Knoxville. Many are predicting an SEC East title for the Vols.
Don’t count on it.
Tennessee’s only real chance at it is simple: Nobody else in the East is really that great. Well, neither are the Vols.
Rocky Top was above average defensively last season (32nd overall) but mediocre at best offensively (83rd overall).
Expectations for this team seemingly came out of nowhere. Lest we forget that they finished 2014 one game above .500.
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-4 SEC
Arkansas
This is probably going out on a limb, but the Razorbacks could compete for the west. Obviously, with their inclusion in the “Yeah but No” part of the list, that’s not likely, but they’re so close.
Yes, yes, they finished a game above .500 too. But they were in some really close games: an overtime loss to sixth-ranked A&M, a one-point heartbreaker against the Tide and a touchdown loss at the No. 1 team in the country.
Bret Bielema has this team loaded with potential. It could be what the Mississippi schools were last season.
Arkansas, not Tennessee, should be the sleeper pick of the SEC this season.
Prediction: 9-3 overall, 5-3 SEC
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Definitely Have a Shot
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The top dogs. No pun intended.
Georgia
Georgia is the class of the East, and while that might not be saying much, it is still saying something.
You win the division: You play in Atlanta. It’s that’s simple.
But the Bulldogs aren’t just the better-than-the-rest-of-those-bums team in the East—they’re legit. They finished out 2014 with a 10-3 mark and return last year’s freshman phenom Nick Chubb behind a stellar offensive line.
Georgia only has two things standing between it and a shot at the College Football Playoff: the state of Alabama and itself.
Georgia always finds a way to stumble somewhere. It should be able to do that in 2015 and still make the SEC Championship Game again, though.
Prediction: 10-2 overall, 6-2 SEC
Alabama
The perennials. This year is going to be a little different for the Crimson Tide, though.
Gone are pretty much all of the Alabama skill players on offense.
Nobody recruits like Saban, however, and the Tide should roll on through just about everyone they play against.
Almost everyone.
Prediction: 11-1 overall, 7-1 SEC
Auburn
This is your team to beat.
That Gus Malzahn offense that ranked 17th in the nation last season is combining with a defense that was already at least middling before defensive mastermind Will Muschamp arrived from Gainesville.
Muschamp is the X-factor here for the Tigers.
If he can get that defense to perform remotely close to as well as Florida’s defense performed, this could be a powerhouse team for years to come—until someone else decides to give Muschamp a head-coaching shot anyway.
Prediction: 11-1 overall, 7-1 SEC
Stats and info courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise noted.
Follow Aaron Brand on Twitter @AaronBrand47.
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