Ticking Clocks: 6 NBA Franchises That Must Win Now in 2015-16
NBA teams have nearly two months before the start of training camp and even more time separating them from meaningful games. But a handful of clubs are already under the gun to turn the 2015-16 season into a championship-banner-raising campaign.
All of them are in a race against time to maximize the potential of their current cores, though not for the same reasons.
Some of these franchises could face dramatic changes over the 2016 summer. Free agency might poach some of their most pivotal players. Father Time is another threat to thin their ranks.
For others, the makeup of their personnel—and the price tag attached to those players—demands significant results sooner rather than later. These organizations invested heavily in championship potential. They have neither the time nor the margin for error.
The regular season might sit far off in the horizon, but these six teams can already hear the antsy ticking of their championship clocks.
Chicago Bulls
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For the first time since 2010, the Chicago Bulls won't be taking marching orders from defense-first drill sergeant Tom Thibodeau. Their coaching reins are now held by Fred Hoiberg, an offensive guru who rules with a disarming smile, as opposed to his predecessor's iron fist.
It's a new day in the Windy City, but Hoiberg inherits the same puzzles Thibodeau struggled to solve.
The Bulls still aren't sure how Derrick Rose's health will hold up, with the former MVP having played a total of 61 games over the past three seasons combined. They have a second medical question mark in Joakim Noah, who never looked fully recovered from May 2014 knee surgery.
Pau Gasol dazzled during his first run with the Bulls last season but celebrated his 35th birthday in July. Jimmy Butler had an All-Star breakout season in 2014-15 but is only one year removed from posting a 39.7 field-goal percentage. Nikola Mirotic has to build some momentum from his impressive debut, while Doug McDermott and Tony Snell must find the consistent production that has so far eluded them.
Outside of Hoiberg, there aren't many moving parts—rookie Bobby Portis, who joins a crowded Chicago frontcourt, is the only significant on-court addition—but there are a slew of unpredictable ones. If Hoiberg can't help Chicago find its way out of the Eastern Conference, this nucleus may not get another chance.
"If the Bulls are intent on blowing up their team and starting fresh, next year always made more sense for the deconstruction given the amount of quality players in the final year of their respective contracts," wrote ESPN.com's Nick Friedell.
Noah, Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks and E'Twaun Moore are all slated to reach unrestricted free agency in 2016. Gasol could join them if he declines his $7.7 million player option for 2016-17.
The Bulls still boast one of the most talented rosters in the East, but they're running out of time to make that on-paper ability translate to major on-court success.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Remember the pleas for patience LeBron James made when announcing his return to the Cleveland Cavaliers last summer? Even the King couldn't sell that same message this time around.
The Cavs played last season with a rookie head coach and a radically revamped roster. They made major moves last summer (signing James, trading for Kevin Love) and more during the campaign (January trades for Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith). The injury bug had claimed three opening-night starters before Cleveland's run came to a close: Irving, Love and Anderson Varejao.
And yet, the Cavs still cemented themselves as the East's top team. They sprinted through their side of the playoff bracket with a 12-2 record before suffering a six-game loss to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals.
That success alone should heighten expectations for the upcoming campaign. But Cleveland's escalating costs—plus the 30-year-old James' ticking biological clock—exponentially increases the pressure for the Cavs to close the deal in 2016.
Cleveland has an $88.6 million roster, and that figure does not include whatever Tristan Thompson collects in restricted free agency. The Cavs could also decide to bring back J.R. Smith or add another contributor with the trade exceptions created by dealing away Brandon Haywood and Mike Miller.
Cleveland is already beyond the luxury-tax level of $84.7 million and doesn't appear to be done shopping yet. A max deal for Thompson would push the Cavs' tax bill to $46.1 million, according to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler.
That's an exorbitant amount to pay for anything short of a title run. Add in James' quest to grow his jewelry collection, and the Cavs are clearly entrenched in championship-or-bust mode.
Memphis Grizzlies
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For each of the past five seasons, the Memphis Grizzlies have been a thorn in every Western Conference contender's side. Their grit-n'-grind style can physically and mentally exhaust an opponent, and their offense produces just enough points on the strength of Mike Conley's perimeter game and the interior tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
But the Grizzlies have been unable to emerge from the West's crowded pack, and this could be the last opportunity to do so with their current core.
Mike Conley, Courtney Lee and Jeff Green—who each averaged at least 27 minutes per game during Memphis' last playoff run—are all entering the final year of their contracts. And despite the Grizzlies' attempts to extend Conley before then, nothing will stop the 27-year-old from reaching free agency.
"The consensus starting point guard on the league's All-Underrated Team simply can't sign an extension, working from the figures on his current deal, that could come close to the sort of offers he's likely to attract as a 2016 free agent," wrote ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Because so many players from the 2015 free-agent market opted for long-term pacts, the 2016 crop looks light at the top. Shoppers will be out in full force thanks to the new TV money, but the supply is limited. Conley could be a max-contract candidate for any club in need of point guard help, while Lee and Green could attract suitors searching for athleticism and shooting on the perimeter.
Even if Memphis can keep its roster intact, it cannot dial back the clock for the 30-year-old Gasol, 33-year-old Tony Allen and 34-year-old Randolph. Father Time waits for no one, so the Grizzlies have to capitalize on the opportunity in front of them.
Miami Heat
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A lack of continuity kept the Miami Heat from making a full self-assessment last season. By the time Goran Dragic made his Miami debut in late February, the club had already lost Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts to season-ending injuries.
On paper, the Heat look loaded heading into the 2015-16 campaign.
They have a well-rounded starting lineup of Dragic, Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside, plus a much-improved bench behind that quintet. Between a healthy McRoberts, rookie Justise Winslow and veterans Amar'e Stoudemire and Gerald Green, the Heat should be able to attack in waves.
But Miami must stay healthy for all of these pieces to mesh.
The Heat have the NBA's oldest roster with an average age of 30.3, according to Real GM. And a lot of these aging players come with medical question marks.
Wade, whose knee problems date back to his college days, hasn't played 70 games since 2010-11. Neither has Stoudemire. Deng has missed 10-plus contests in three of the past four seasons. Bosh is working his way back from blood clots on his lung, and McRoberts is coming off a torn meniscus.
The Heat believe they have built a winner. "As far as collective punch, I think we're as good as anybody in the league," Bosh said, via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
But the Heat have to figure this out quickly. Their roster isn't getting any younger, and a slew of notable names—including Wade, Whiteside and Deng—are headed to free agency at season's end.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Last season felt close to a worst-case scenario for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Former MVP Kevin Durant was limited to 27 games by a nagging foot injury that required three surgeries. Serge Ibaka was forced off the floor in mid-March by arthroscopic knee surgery. Russell Westbrook lost 15 outings to a broken bone in his right hand and a fractured cheekbone.
The Thunder, who had gone 119-45 over the past two seasons and tallied seven playoff series wins since 2011, limped to a 45-37 finish and missed the postseason party for the first time since 2009. Head coach Scott Brooks was dismissed one week after the team's final game.
The season was unfortunate. But the true worst-case scenarios for this franchise reside in the uncertainties lying ahead.
Durant is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Chaos could ensue shortly thereafter.
"A bevy of franchises will have the salary-cap space to offer the maximum possible contract to Durant, the 2014 league MVP," wrote Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. "Other teams are only a couple moves from getting in the mix. It could become a free-for-all."
It's impossible to know how that process will play out or what will happen the following summer, when both Westbrook and Ibaka find themselves in the same position.
If the Thunder stay healthy, they have both the top-tier talent and depth to position themselves at or near the front of the championship race. But they can't afford to hit any hurdles along the way. Not when the loss of Durant or Westbrook (or in a true worst-case scenario, both) would pull them out of the chase.
San Antonio Spurs
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The San Antonio Spurs' savvy summer spending should keep them in the championship hunt for years to come.
But for franchise mainstays Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, who both signed one-year pacts with a player option, this could be the last stand in the Alamo City.
"I'm so happy that Manu and Timmy are back. And so we're going for a last try, a last crack at it to try to win it all," Tony Parker told France 24 English (via Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News).
The Spurs won 55 games last season and had the NBA's third-best point differential at plus-6.2. But San Antonio was penalized for not winning its division and drew the West's No. 6 seed, which led to an opening-round matchup with the 56-win Los Angeles Clippers. The Spurs were eventually ousted after a closely contested seven-game series, with the final three matchups decided by a total of 12 points.
San Antonio reloaded for a title run this offseason. Two-way wings Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green both inked long-term contracts. LaMarcus Aldridge, the only 2015 All-Star to swap jerseys, arrived on a four-year max deal. Veteran David West joined the Silver and Black at the deeply discounted price of the veteran's minimum.
The Spurs have been the league's model for consistency and could easily retain that label into the near future. But this could be the final go-round for the 39-year-old Duncan, his closing shot at adding a sixth champion ring to his legendary jewelry collection.
This roster looks as strong as any in the basketball world, but San Antonio's elder statesmen have no margin for error.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Contract information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
