Brooklyn Nets Hope for Nice Return After Betting Low on Andrea Bargnani

Fans of the Brooklyn Nets collectively sighed when they heard about the Andrea Bargnani signing. They weren't excited. But just because Bargnani busted with the New York Knicks doesn't mean circumstances are bound to be identical in Brooklyn.

Bargnani gets the Joe Johnson big-contract treatment. Because of a five-year, $50 million contract he signed with the Toronto Raptors in 2009, because he underperformed after receiving the deal and because the Knicks unloaded three draft picks (a first-rounder and two second-rounders) to acquire him from Toronto, the fanbase jumps all over him.

Except unlike Johnson, Bargnani didn't just fail to play up to his contract because he wasn't quite good enough.

He flopped. And that's the generous way of putting it. For years, it was almost cruel that the iPhone autocorrected "Bargnani" to "bargain." At least that mistake won't send Knicks fans into a frenzy anymore.

He's played in just 137 games over the past four years, and after the Knicks gave up a chunk of their future for him, an ill-advised move at the time, fans wanted more. They didn't realize that even when Bargnani was "good," he wasn't contributing in a legitimate fashion over major minutes.

He killed the Knicks in the smaller ways—like in help defense or with his inefficient shot selection—even if his jump shot does look pretty on the occasion that the ball hits nylon.

Bargs drained only 30 percent of his threes over those previous four seasons (after starting his career as a 37 percent long-range shooter through five years), but the misses weren't the only problem. Even the types of clanks were an issue.

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal addressed one of the subtler Bargnani issues a couple of seasons ago:

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When he misses from long range, it usually turns into automatic points for the opposing team.

This season, Knicks opponents have grabbed 58 rebounds on jumpers that Bargnani has missed from outside the paint, and 35 of them-a whopping 60.3%-have led to a basket on the other end of the floor. That scoring rate off one player's missed shots is the highest in the NBA.

"

That trend has continued because of the arc on his shot, which projects as more of a line drive than a curve. He's sluggish getting back on defense, too, which doesn't help.

These are issues that can plague a team over long stretches, like the ones Bargs was getting on the floor with the Raptors and Knicks. Maybe in short bits, things can be different. And you'd have to imagine his responsibilities in Brooklyn will be far different than his previous ones.

That's where we get back to contracts and roles. Knicks fans weren't disappointed in Bargs only because of his performance, but also because of the role New York slotted him into.

The Knicks played him 28.8 minutes a game during his two years there. They let him take more than 15 shots per 36 minutes. Almost 30 percent of his attempts were long twos, though plenty of that was probably due to Bargnani's shoddy decision-making.

Still, the team made him a focal point of the offense. He's not that. And even though his reputation as a floor spacer has deteriorated like a muffin in a time capsule, that doesn't mean he's rendered completely useless on a minimum deal.

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Yes, this is the optimistic view. But at the least, it's one Bargs is taking.

"I'm very focused," Bargnani told Italian media over the weekend (translation courtesy of NetsDaily). "I want to play a season without the constant stop and start. ... I intend in coming years to be an important player within the structure of the Nets and a player on whom my teammates can count in any situation."

Maybe Bargnani won't climb back to the top of a cliff after falling off it, but he might at least be able to get a foot wedged into the rock. Can he get a few inches off the ground again? It's possible.

The Nets probably wouldn't have signed Bargnani if they didn't think there was something they could fix in his shot or his defense or his decision-making or his general performance. There's no financial risk in a minimum deal, but because the contract is guaranteed and because Brooklyn had 18 players under contract at the time of the signing, the organization is choosing him over someone else.

Is that someone Cory Jefferson, whom the Nets waived shortly before his contract became guaranteed for 2015-16? Is it Earl Clark or Willie Reed or Quincy Miller or Ryan Boatright, all of whom have partially guaranteed or nonguaranteed deals for the upcoming season?

There isn't a direct player-to-player correlation, but here's one obvious point: If Bargs weren't there, someone else would be.

Bargnani doesn't have to be an integral player. He just has to stand beyond the three-point line and hope like heck that defenses close out on his shots. For 15 minutes a game, he could function as a man on welfare's Mirza Teletovic—but only if he or the Nets find a way to make opposing defenses guard him when he has the ball beyond the three-point line.

That's worth a minimum deal.

Brooklyn thinks it has found something. But if it's wrong, it's not like throwing a minimum-salary player at the end of the bench is a difficult task.

Follow Fred Katz on Twitter at @FredKatz.

All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.