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Denver Nuggets Turn to the Emmanuel Mudiay Era After Dealing Ty Lawson

Dan FavaleJul 20, 2015

In trading Ty Lawson to the Houston Rockets, the Denver Nuggets aren't sending a message so much as confirming what was already inevitable: This is Emmanuel Mudiay's team now.

Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski first reported the news late Sunday night. The Nuggets agreed to ship their 27-year-old floor general to the Rockets for an odds-and-ends package consisting of Joey Dorsey, Nick Johnson, Pablo Prigioni, Kostas Papanikolaou and a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2016.

Basketball-wise, Denver accepted a low-end return in exchange for a fringe star. Logistically speaking, this represents the pinnacle of Lawson's trade value.

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After being arrested for driving under the influence twice in less than six months, Lawson's already-dwindling market appeal had, as Wojnarowski put it, "cratered." So much so that unless the Nuggets were interested in selling incredibly low, the most sensible course of action was to stand pat and hope the embattled point guard would raise his plummeting stock ahead of next February's trade deadline.

Extracting a first-rounder out of Houston, then, in some ways makes this a steal. But only under these exact circumstances.

Lawson ranked fourth in assist percentage last season, dropping dimes on 43 percent of the Nuggets' made baskets when on the floor, and was first in assist opportunities among all players to appear in at least 25 games with the same team.

He was also one of just three players to average at least 21 points and 13.5 assists per 100 possessions. His company: Chris Paul and John Wall.

The point: Lawson, even at 5'11", can play. Landing what amounts to a mid-end first-rounder and salary-cap fodder is not an ideal return. The Nuggets settled.

Lawson didn't net the Nuggets a great return by any means.

To some degree, they had little choice in the matter. Things between Lawson and the organization, as previously outlined, had been tenuous at best, and the latest issues made severing ties the most attractive option for a rebuilding Nuggets squad.

But, to an equally important extent, they were also in a position to settle.

Even before Lawson's arrest, the 19-year-old Mudiay rendered the incumbent point guard expendable. He plays the same position, projects as a better defender at 6'5" and, most importantly, used the NBA's Las Vegas Summer League as his own personal coming-out party.

Through four appearances, Mudiay averaged 12.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.2 steals. He shot just 38.5 percent from the floor, including 14.3 percent from downtown, and defenses immediately began testing his shaky jumper by ignoring him when he didn't have the ball. But, overall, his summer-league stint was successful. 

At minimum, Mudiay plays as advertised. He reaches the paint at will, collapsing defenses to the benefit of orbiting shooters. He isn't using screens in the half-court especially well just yet, often attacking before they're set, but that recognition comes with repetition and a more permanent supporting cast than the one summer-league play offers.

Pushing the tempo is already his greatest draw. Not even half-court sets last long when he's given free rein, which fits with how Nuggets head coach Mike Malone wants to play. During an interview with Grantland's Zach Lowe, he indicated that his new team would "defend, run, and use the altitude" to its advantage.

Most of Mudiay's forays into the paint begin before the defense has time to compose itself, and he makes quick decisions off the dribble, whether it's finding a trailing shooter, slashing big or finishing on his own. And that ability to finish at rim, combined with his know-all-see-all court vision, makes him impossible to defend in transition.

This keen sense of awareness is no ancillary device. The comparisons to Wall exist in volume because, while Mudiay can score, his first instinct is to pass.

“I love scoring, too," he said, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "But everybody can score. Unless we really need it, I’m going to find teammates."

There are times when he gets too fancy. He may have set the summer-league record for behind-the-back pass attempts, and he doesn't anticipate double- and triple-teams so much as he banks on them.

When he attacks, specifically from one of the baselines, his path is predictable. He doesn't change directions or dart around defenders; he makes a beeline for the basket, stopping only when he's underneath it, at which point he usually leaps into the air with only one option: completing a jump pass to a wide-open sniper.

It's a pretty move when he's given enough space and there's a shooter to which he can defer. And it's not difficult to envision Wilson Chandler, Randy Foye and Danilo Gallinari capitalizing on dribble drives such as these:

Mudiay's penchant for flair, however, can be costly. He turned the ball over nearly 25.9 percent of the time in Vegas, according to RealGM, the equivalent of the second-highest cough-up rate in the league last year. 

Although his turnover percentage while playing in China (16 percent, per RealGM) isn't obscene for a starting point guard, overseas play isn't the NBA. Nor is summer league the regular season.

Every facet of Mudiay's game, from the good to the bad, will be tested tenfold leading into 2015-16. And while it's much too early to declare his jumper forever broken or his playmaking incurably reckless, he's about to face a bittersweet reality in Denver following Lawson's departure—that of a primary franchise cornerstone.

As Michael Pina underscored for Sports on Earth:

"

These questions are relevant for most high draft picks. But, now that Lawson's gone, Mudiay will likely become Denver's primary ball-handler. He'll get to shoot, catalyze a fast-paced offense and really contend for Rookie of the Year. No other lottery pick (including D'Angelo Russell) is in that position.

It places him beneath an especially harsh microscope.

"

It says a lot about the Nuggets' faith in Mudiay that they're throwing him into the fire this early, and that, as Malone told Lowe, they picked him ahead of Justise Winslow, who filled an actual need at the time. It says even more about their belief in his ceiling that this was the plan all along.

Trading Lawson increased Mudiay's importance to the Nuggets, but they identified him as a building block in training long before dealing their more established quarterback.

“We’ve put the ball in his hands and given him a lot of freedom," Nuggets summer-league coach Micah Nori said, per NBC Sports' Kurt Helin, "and there’s good reason for that."

There are no other franchise-headliners on the roster with Lawson gone. The Nuggets are trying to keep a semi-stable foundation in place by extending Chandler and, according to the Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey, attempting to do the same with Gallinari. But they're glue guys, not cornerstones.

Jusuf Nurkic is the next closest thing to a possible franchise face that the Nuggets employ. He's now one of only four rookies, minimum 1,000 total minutes played, to average at least 19 points, 17 rebounds and three blocks per 100 possessions. The other three: Shaquille O'Neal, Robert Parish and Andre Drummond.

Mudiay was great in Vegas, but the regular season is a different animal.

Still, Nurkic's sample size (1,103 minutes) is awfully small. And, drafted at No. 16 in 2014, he wasn't selected to be Denver's next superstar. No one else on the roster was acquired under that guise either.

Only Mudiay.

The Nuggets were always going to be his team eventually.

Eventually just turned into right now.

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.

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