Expectations for Willie Cauley-Stein's Rookie Season with Sacramento Kings

When the Sacramento Kings added center Willie Cauley-Stein with the sixth pick in the 2015 NBA draft, they expected a player who brings athleticism, a capable overall defender and someone who can protect the rim. Those are all areas the team needed to upgrade.

At the same time, the composition of the roster has changed dramatically since the draft, which took place prior to free agency. Since then, the Kings have added center Kosta Koufos as well as power forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Both are known for their defensive acumen and could cut into Cauley-Stein's playing time as a rookie.

There's also head coach George Karl, who hasn't given much time to rookies. 

Even in light of those factors, there's no denying that Cauley-Stein can help this team. With the Kings having their sights set on the playoffs, they'll need production from all corners of the roster, and the rookie will be a part of that.

Defense Isn't as Much of a Need

The Kings were pretty bad on defense in 2014-15, ranking 27th in defensive rating and allowing 106.5 points per 100 possessions. They were even worse when defending near the rim, with opponents making 63.0 percent of their field-goal shots. Only the Minnesota Timberwolves allowed a higher percentage.

This is an area Cauley-Stein is capable of impacting from the get-go. He averaged 2.2 blocks per game during his three-year career at the University of Kentucky and 3.6 per 40 minutes. Cauley-Stein is also more than a one-trick pony, getting 1.1 steals per game and 1.8 per 40 minutes, along with leading the NCAA in defensive win shares in 2014-15 (3.4) and ranking second in the nation in defensive rating (80.0). 

Yet with the upgrades the Kings have made in their personnel, Cauley-Stein's skill set doesn't fill as much of a need as it did on draft night.

John Raoux/Associated Press

In Mbah a Moute, the Kings added a solid all-around defender and a familiar face, with the 28-year-old spending part of the 2013-14 season in Sacramento. While with the Philadelphia 76ers last season, he held opposing small forwards to a player efficiency rating of 13.4 and power forwards to a PER of 15.6, according to 82games.com. With 15.0 being the average PER, Mbah a Moute was solid at both spots.

Philly's defense was also considerably better when he was on the court. It held the opposition to 100.5 points per 100 possessions with him in the game, while opponents scored 103.5 per 100 possessions when he sat. 

To provide some context, that's the difference between the 76ers being the sixth-best defense when he played and ranking 18th when he sat. 

With Koufos now in the fold, the Kings also have someone who can bring the rim protection that comes with Cauley-Stein.

The former Memphis Grizzly averaged 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes in 2014-15 and sports a 1.9 per-36-minute average over the duration of his career.

Koufos also has the ability to affect shots when he can't block them. Last season, he held opponents to 51.1 percent shooting within six feet of the hoop, which is 8.4 percent lower than their average. He was just as impressive within the restricted zone, with the opposition shooting only 46.9 percent. That's tied for 20th among those who played at least 50 games and faced at least three such attempts per game.

George Karl Is in Charge of Playing Time

Karl also figures to cut into Cauley-Stein's opportunities as a rookie. The coach will set the lineups, and his past suggests Cauley-Stein may not get a ton of action.

The two most recent examples are Kenneth Faried and Ty Lawson. Both are noteworthy because they've proved to be quality players and were in a similar situation with viable veterans in front of them.

In Faried's case, he averaged 22.5 minutes per game as a rookie and ended up starting 39 contests, which isn't too bad for a rookie. The coach still initially preferred to play Nene instead, with the Brazilian logging 29.5 minutes prior to being traded to the Washington Wizards in March. 

Up to that point, Faried averaged 19.5 minutes.

Lawson logged 20.3 minutes a night as a rookie in 2009-10. The Nuggets had Chauncey Billups on the roster, and the veteran started all 73 games in which he appeared and played 34.1 minutes per contest.

None of which is to say Karl was wrong for allotting the playing time as he did. Billups put up 19.5 points and 5.6 assists, while Nene averaged 13.4 points and 7.4 rebounds, respectively. Furthermore, each of those teams was in win-now mode and qualified for the postseason.

With the moves the Kings have made, they're also looking to win in 2015-16, even if they don't have the recent history to back up those hopes. 

Karl mentioned prior to the draft that he doesn't see any rookie getting a ton of playing time this season, as noted by Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee:

Of course, it's fair to point out there are a lot of outcomes between logging 30 minutes a game and not playing at all.

What Are Realistic Expectations?

The biggest factor for Cauley-Stein will likely be team performance. If the Kings are winning games, it'll be because additions like Mbah a Moute, Koufos, Rajon Rondo and Marco Belinelli are having an impact. The team is unlikely to disrupt that.

But if Sacramento isn't playing well, it opens the door for even more playing time for Cauley-Stein. Of course, in that scenario, who knows what happens with Karl or the team? If we've learned anything from Vivek Ranadive's time owning the Kings, it's that he's not a patient man.

Either way, it's hard to envision a scenario where Cauley-Stein rides the bench all season. There will be opportunities to play him, and the Kings will take advantage of them.

In the rookie's favor is his versatility. He can guard multiple positions, which gives the coaching staff flexibility to play him. While he's limited on offense, Cauley-Stein is also athletic and capable of running the floor, which should allow him to garner some opportunities in Karl's uptempo offense.

And as Lawson and Faried have shown, players can still develop without being the focal point of a team as rookies. In fact, Lawson and Faried quickly became valued members of the Nuggets for Karl, to the point where the coach wanted to trade for them this offseason. It's just a matter of earning Karl's trust through solid play.

In a perfect world, the same will be true of Cauley-Stein. 

Unless noted otherwise, all stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

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