Atlanta Hawks Aren't Going Anywhere After Re-Signing Paul Millsap

The Atlanta Hawks experienced a bitter ending to the best regular season in franchise history when the Cleveland Cavaliers swept them out of the Eastern Conference Finals. But now, that ashen taste can once more be replaced with optimism.

"Our most important thing is keeping our team together, so the more time I have to spend time with Paul [Millsap] and DeMarre [Carroll] and our players, I welcome that," head coach Mike Budenholzer told the Associated Press' George Henry shortly before the start of free agency. 

Ultimately, those efforts failed, and the Hawks hit on only one of their two primary targets. But they picked the right one. 

Paul Millsap is coming back to Philips Arena for at least two more years, and the Hawks are now poised to pick up right where they left off, serving as true contenders in the league's weaker half. RealGM.com's Shams Charania broke news of the re-signing first, and ESPN.com's Chris Broussard subsequently provided details on the terms: 

That contract pushes Atlanta over the salary cap this season, which means any other additions will be brought aboard with exceptions and on minimum deals. But this team is already locked and loaded for the next campaign after just three moves. 

First, the Hawks traded out of the draft to acquire Tim Hardaway Jr. from the New York Knicks, essentially banking on his arrival as an insurance policy for DeMarre Carroll's possible departure. The small forward did indeed leave to join the Toronto Raptors on the first day of free agency, as first reported by Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, but the rotation on the wings should still be a strong one. 

Though losing Carroll certainly hurts, the Hawks at least have a healthy Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, Hardaway and Kyle Korver there to eat up the departed minutes. It's a loss that the team can manage, and the same wouldn't have been true if Millsap slipped through its fingers. 

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When Atlanta moved for Tiago Splitter, absorbing him into its cap space, as Wojnarowski reported, money was tight. There was no realistic way for the franchise to bring back both incumbent starters, and it made the proper choice, building an extraordinarily strong frontcourt in the process. 

Rebounding was a primary concern for the Hawks during the 2014-15 campaign, but that shouldn't be as problematic now.

Splitter is there to crash the boards when he's in the game, even if the former San Antonio Spurs center is coming off a season in which he averaged 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. That was the worst mark of his career, earned partially because he spent the year fighting off nagging injuries that limited him both in the games-played column and when he was actually on the court. Expecting him to bounce back to a mark that's in or near double digits is by no means unrealistic. 

All of a sudden, his arrival and Millsap's return mean the Hawks have options in the frontcourt. 

They could continue to roll out Millsap and Horford while bringing in Splitter and Mike Muscala, whom Budenholzer seemed happy to rely on during the postseason, off the bench. But they could also go in the opposite direction of the league-wide small-ball trends and shift last year's starters down one slot in the lineup. 

Would it work? Only time will tell, since the sample is rather limited for both Millsap at the 3 and Horford at the 4. The former has spent only 5 percent of his career minutes at small forward, and none of them were logged in Atlanta. The latter, just 15 percent of his minutes at power forward and with less success. 

Regardless, there are options now, and the flexibility of the players enhances those options. Of the four bigs who figure to play prominent parts in the rotation—and you can even throw in Mike Scott as a fifth—any two-man combination will work. Splitter is the only player truly confined to a single position.

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By bringing back Millsap, this offseason has essentially involved swapping Pero Antic (playing overseas next year but he had fallen out of the rotation already) and Carroll for Splitter. And given the needs in Atlanta, that's a positive change.

The small forward was obviously a key piece of the puzzle, but again, he wasn't completely irreplaceable.

In fact, my FATS model (based on historical similarities and explained in full here) shows that the Hawks were actually 4.1 wins worse over the course of a season when he was on the floor. Part of that is due to the strength of the second unit throughout the regular season, but the fact that he falls so far below the other starters is a strong sign that he wasn't as important as the playoffs might have led some to believe:

Notably, Millsap actually has a negative differential as well, but that's also due to the overall strength of the bench. 

If you're looking to replace one member of a starting five who co-won Eastern Conference Player of the Month in January, the best option is probably the one with the lowest on-court score and the highest off-court score. After all, that indicates he was least important to the success when he was playing and simultaneously the easiest to replace. 

Retaining Millsap was the best choice. Really, it was the only choice, especially after passing up the ability to draft a top frontcourt prospect—Arkansas' Bobby Portis, for example—in order to acquire Hardaway. 

And by doing so, the Hawks have virtually guaranteed that they're going to remain right near the top of the Eastern Conference for at least another season. After all, there simply haven't been any new emerging superpowers in this half of the league up to this point in the still-young offseason.

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The Cavaliers are bringing everyone back thus far—we can basically assume LeBron James is re-signing even if that's far from official—and should be the prohibitive favorites to earn the No. 1 seed in the conference. But beyond them, who's going to emerge as the proverbial cream of the crop? 

Even if Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose return to their old form, the Chicago Bulls have to rely on some aging pieces while learning how to function under new head coach Fred Hoiberg. The Raptors got better after signing DeMarre Carroll, but they still only won 49 games in 2014-15. The Washington Wizards, devoid of any true impact additions, might have trouble making the leap without Paul Pierce—Dan Woike of the Orange County Register reported he'll be joining the Los Angeles Clippers next season. 

Beyond that, you're asking Paul George to propel the David West-less Indiana Pacers up the standings, the Milwaukee Bucks to mature significantly in a short time or the Miami Heat to make a substantial leap. The Heat are certainly capable of doing so if Dwyane Wade re-signs with them, but they're also an injury-prone squad without much established talent coming off the pine. 

The East is wide-open, and the Hawks figure to enjoy plenty of continuity—one of the NBA's most underrated commodities. 

Sure, it would be a stretch to expect them to win 60 games again. They did admittedly overperform a bit during their historic regular season, and there was always going to be a slight regression to the mean. And sure, they looked significantly worse during the playoffs. They were also dealing with key injuries to plenty of rotation players and just picked a bad time to miss shots they'd made throughout the rest of the campaign.

This is still an elite squad, and Millsap keeps that adjective from becoming one that no longer applies. 

All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.