Beyond Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls 2015 Free-Agency Agenda Is Short but Critical
CHICAGO — The Chicago Bulls’ biggest offseason move has already taken place. The hiring of Fred Hoiberg to replace Tom Thibodeau as head coach signifies a change in culture and in style. Going from Thibodeau's grinding, defense-first mentality to Hoiberg's free-flowing, uptempo offense has the potential to be just as much of a game-changer for the Bulls as adding a top-tier free agent would be.
But as Chicago heads into its first offseason with its new coach and identity, the roster looks a lot like last season’s.
The Bulls are not among the teams chasing splashy names like Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge. Their plan really consists of three steps: re-signing Jimmy Butler, attempting to re-sign Mike Dunleavy and adding a backup point guard via the taxpayer’s mid-level exception.
Step 1: Re-Sign Jimmy Butler
Chicago’s first order of business is obvious: figuring out Butler’s future, which could get tricky if he really wants to be a free agent again sooner rather than later. The first-time All-Star and NBA's Most Improved Player is going to be in a Bulls uniform next season. That much is clear. It’s simply a matter of whether that will be for one year, three years or five years.
The Bulls extended Butler the standard one-year qualifying offer of $4.4 million as well as the seldom-used maximum qualifying offer, a five-year deal worth around $90 million. The max qualifying offer means that any other team's offer sheets to Butler must start at three years, not counting options. And since the Bulls have already put a five-year max deal on the table for Butler, there’s no reason to believe they’ve changed their long-held stance that they’ll match any offer sheet he signs with another team.
The only way for Butler to become a free agent before the 2018 offseason is to sign the one-year qualifying offer, which would involve taking $4.4 million over $90 million. He famously, and successfully, bet on himself by turning down the Bulls’ extension offer last fall, but with his minutes load and injury history (he missed 17 games last season with thumb and elbow issues), this gamble may be a bridge too far.
Assuming Butler doesn’t sign the one-year qualifying offer, his max deal for next season will start at around $15.8 million, putting the Bulls’ payroll for next season north of $81 million and into luxury-tax territory.
Step 2: Re-sign Mike Dunleavy
Re-signing Dunleavy will also be a priority for the Bulls, but they’ll have competition. He’ll be 35 by the start of next season, but he’s still a solid team defender who shot 40.7 percent from three-point range last season. Plenty of contenders will want him—including the Cleveland Cavaliers, according to ESPN.com’s Marc Stein.
Dunleavy is coming off a two-year, $6.5 million contract, and at his age, he shouldn’t command much more than that on a new deal this summer. The Bulls are already planning to be in the luxury tax, and with the salary cap spiking next summer, there’s no reason they won’t be able to make a competitive bid to keep Dunleavy.
All indications are that he’s comfortable in Chicago and fits well with the Bulls. The smart money is on his returning next season.
Step 3: Find a Backup Point Guard
Kirk Hinrich picked up his player option for next season, but his days as a useful rotation player are well in the past. Aaron Brooks’ production tailed off significantly after a strong start to the year, and he shot just 34.4 percent from the field in the playoffs. It’s unlikely he’ll be back in the fold.
To sign a replacement, the Bulls will have the taxpayer’s mid-level exception at their disposal—a three-year deal worth around $3.3 million per year. In that price range, they’ll be choosing from the likes of Cory Joseph, Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson and C.J. Watson. Not the sexiest of names, but that’s who’s there for that role, and any of them would be perfectly fine.
Next offseason will be when things get interesting in Chicago. Joakim Noah will hit free agency next summer, meaning he has one year to prove he’s closer to the 2014 Defensive Player of the Year than the injury-plagued shell of himself he was this season. Taj Gibson, Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Derrick Rose are up the following summer, in 2017.
They could look to move one of their big men before then, especially if first-round pick Bobby Portis blossoms. But that’s unlikely this summer—with Gibson’s recent ankle surgery, Noah’s down year and Gasol’s age, they can’t afford to lose any depth in the frontcourt right now.
If those changes happen, they’ll be well down the line. In 2015, the Bulls are poised for an uneventful offseason, presuming Butler’s situation resolves itself relatively quickly. The team that fell in six games in the second round to the Cleveland Cavaliers is the same team that will compete with them next season. They have no other options than to hope a new coach and a change in style are enough.
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