Biggest Threats to Sign the Top 10 Free Agents in the 2015 NBA Offseason
NBA free agency would be nothing without outside suitors looking to poach top-tier talent from rival teams.
Competition is the entire point of the free-agency process. Incumbent teams are typically given an advantage over external parties, and most big-name free agents don't leave. But, at its core, the league's offseason extravaganza is a battlefield that pits franchise against franchise.
Even when a player's return is deemed a formality, there is usually a wild card—one particular admirer that threatens to pry a star out of his current digs. And in the spirit of that, we're going to identify that one threat for each of this summer's best available talents.
Rankings will be plucked from this list of the top-20 names. But there will be one caveat: Restricted free agents are being bumped from consideration.
Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green, among others, are virtual locks to stay put. Their teams can and will match any offer they receive. For the sake of being able to cite potential threats with a straight face, they, along with every other restricted free agent, won't be making an appearance.
In those instances where they would appear, we'll just defer to the next available unrestricted free agent. .
Ensuing threats will be determined by parsing the rumor mill, evaluating cap situations and looking at the on-court fit between players and teams. These are not end-all predictions, to be sure. Most players are still more likely to re-sign with their current teams.
We're just taking a look at which squads can and should make those current teams sweat.
10. Greg Monroe
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Biggest Threat: Boston Celtics
If we're being honest, the real question here is: Which team is the biggest threat to steal Greg Monroe from the Celtics?
Trading for floor-spacing Ersan Ilyasova, has the Detroit Pistons traveling in a direction completely opposite of Monroe. Coach and president Stan Van Gundy readily admitted he's "not entirely optimistic" that Monroe will return, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com).
Five teams figure to be aggressive suitors in the race for the 25-year-old, according to the Advocate's Darrell Williams: the Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers.
Monroe has eliminated some of those interested parties by default, telling reporters, per Williams: “I’m looking to be with a team that’s ready to win. Hopefully it will be a team where I’m the missing piece.”
Boston is as good as it gets in that regard, even though Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski cites New York as the early front-runner. Both the Lakers and Knicks won't be competing for anything next season; the Blazers may-or-may-not-but-probably-are gearing up for a rebuild; and the Bucks' positionless rotation isn't one for which Monroe is suited.
To that point: It'll take a super-specific situation to maximize what Monroe does best.
More than 89 percent of his shot attempts came within eight feet of the bucket last season, so he's not a power forward in today's NBA. His next team needs to trot him out at center.
And they must do so knowing he won't provide much in the way of rim protection. His 1.3 percent block rate ranked 106th in the league last season. Consider that Danny Green, all of 6'6", rejected 2.8 percent of the shots he contested.
Featuring Monroe demands you have both a floor-spacing 4 as well as capable perimeter defenders who keep opponents out of the paint. The Celtics have sweet-shooting frontcourt members in Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger, and their outside corps of Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart and Evan Turner will take a world of pressure off Monroe's nonexistent shot blocking.
They also satisfy Monroe's desire to compete. They're working off a 40-win campaign that saw them clinch the Eastern Conference's No. 7 seed, and he has yet to make a playoff appearance since entering the league in 2010.
Together, in a conference begging for contenders located outside Cleveland, the Celtics and Monroe could make sweet music—to the tune of 45, maybe even 50, victories.
9. Goran Dragic
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Biggest Threat: Dallas Mavericks
Fans of the Miami Heat needn't worry. Pat Riley is more likely to show up for training camp wearing a spandex onesie and fluorescent-colored crocs than Goran Dragic is to sign elsewhere.
Dragic is preparing to field a five-year offer from the Heat worth between $90 million and $100 million, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (h/t Pro Basketball Talk). If that's not enough to tickle his fancy, the prospect of year-round boogie-boarding will seal the deal.
In the unlikely event Dragic does leave—either because the Heat suddenly love Shabazz Napier or Dragic finds what he believes to be greener pastures—the Mavericks rank as an interesting fit.
Monta Ellis already opted out of his contract, a move ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon previously intimated would spell his departure. And with Rajon Rondo's and Tyson Chandler's pricey pacts coming off the books, the Mavericks have the ability to carve out max-contract space.
Big men, it seems, are the team's primary targets at the moment. League sources told Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher that the Mavericks are the "biggest threat" to sign LaMarcus Aldridge, while MacMahon has them atop DeAndre Jordan's free-agent wish list.
Still, the Mavericks could whiff on their top targets as they did in 2012 (Deron Williams), and 2013 (Dwight Howard), and 2014 (Carmelo Anthony). They could also decide to reverse course.
Devin Harris is already getting paid, and J.J. Barea is a lock to return. But the Mavericks run a pick-and-roll-heavy attack that allows for, if not downright encourages, dual-point guard backcourts.
That's basically been their model since signing Ellis in 2013. He's a ball-dominating combo guard who functions as a playmaker. He just can't score off the catch, dooming his partnership with Harris and Rondo from their separate inceptions.
It's easy to envision Dragic as part of an undersized backcourt. He thrived at times while headlining the Phoenix Suns' point guard platoon, and more than 16 percent of his total shot attempts came as standstill threes last season, of which he nailed a blistering 37.8 percent.
Landing Dragic also makes a ton more sense than maxing out Aldridge. The latter would either force fellow power forward Dirk Nowitzki to the bench or he would play the 5 and serve as the fulcrum for a terribly porous defense.
Heading into next season with Dragic would allow the Mavericks to re-sign the defense-friendly Chandler without gumming up their rotation. It would also give them the top-tier, high-octane offensive pilot they've spent three years trying to track down.
8. Dwyane Wade
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Biggest Threat: Los Angeles Lakers
This feels dirty/weird/obnoxious to even write. At the same time, Dwyane Wade appears to be a bigger flight risk than Dragic.
The 33-year-old has officially passed on the $16.1 million he's slated to earn next season and will explore free agency, according ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne. This isn't what the Heat prefer, and the two sides are apparently at odds over what Wade's next contract should be worth, as Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick previously explained.
Skolnick also named Los Angeles as a possible destination should Wade decide to walk. And though the Los Angeles Clippers, a title contender, naturally spring to mind, they don't have the financial flexibility necessary to make a competitive offer.
Wade leaving Miami is a longer than long shot to begin with, remember. If he does sign with another team, it won't be for the veteran's minimum or anything crazy cheap—not when, again, he could have brought home $16.1 million by doing absolutely nothing.
Playing next to Kobe Bryant and rookie D'Angelo Russell admittedly isn't the most ideal fit. But if the Lakers strike out on all the in-their-prime superstars, they're nothing if not a candidate to throw Wade a two-year deal with a player option for 2016-17.
Fielding those three together in the same starting five would be worth it for sheer entertainment value alone. Signing Wade also doesn't clog the Lakers' books as they prepare for the impending cap boom, assuming he would opt out in 2016 and scour the market for a bigger, better deal.
Syncing up with the rebuilding Lakers does mean Wade would be throwing away a year of his twilight. A core consisting of him and Kobe Bryant contends for an eighth seed at best in the brutally built West.
But this entire scenario, beginning with a Miami exodus, is difficult to picture. If Wade really is looking for a one-year detour en route to his last long-term payday, he could do worse than the bright lights of Hollywood.
Especially if, for that one year, the cap-rich Lakers are prepared to pay him what no other team will.
7. Paul Millsap
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Biggest Threat: Toronto Raptors
Paul Millsap shouldn't be a flight risk. Not after helping the Atlanta Hawks secure a franchise-best 60 regular-season victories.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, that's exactly what he is.
Because Millsap initially signed a two-year deal, they do not own his Bird rights. Those take three seasons to transfer, and until they do, the Hawks cannot go over the salary cap to re-sign him.
DeMarre Carroll poses the same problem. He's coming off a two-year contract of his own and tracking toward a massive raise.
Some draft-day maneuvering will give the Hawks upward of $25 million to split between the two, which isn't even close to enough. Millsap is the only player who has averaged at least 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, three assists and 1.5 steals in each of the last two seasons, putting him in max-contract territory.
Even if he returns at a discounted rate, it's beyond unlikely he begins 2015-16 earning under $15 million, leaving little for Carroll. And though Millsap is a rarer commodity, he's also older. The Hawks may be more inclined to funnel a chunk of their cap space into someone on the right side of 30 (so, Carroll).
Shipping Greivis Vasquez off to the Bucks puts the Toronto Raptors in play for just about any free agent they desire, and power forward was statistically one of their two-worst positions last season, according to 82games.com.
Re-signing Amir Johnson or Tyler Hansbrough won't get the Raptors out of the first round. They need a power forward who spaces the floor and is quick enough to guard other modern-day, three-point-shooting, dribble-driving 4s.
Those players aren't available in abundance overall, let alone in free agency. There is only Millsap right now.
Handing him a small fortune is a good way for the Raptors to elevate their ceiling and turn their postseason pushes into more than first-round formalities.
6. DeAndre Jordan
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Biggest Threat: Dallas Mavericks
Just so we're clear, the Mavericks cannot afford to sign Dragic and Jordan as currently constructed. Dumping Chandler Parsons' deal would put them in dual-max territory, but short of that, they only have room enough for one.
Consider Dragic Plan B.
Sources "close to the situation" told MacMahon that Jordan's "decision most likely will come down to the Clippers and the Mavericks."
Dallas is looking for a younger, more explosive version of Chandler—someone who can play above the rim, grab rebounds and block shots. Jordan fits that bill. He remains a lethal dunker off slashes to the basket and is now the lone qualified player to maintain a rebounding percentage of 24 and block percentage of five in the same season.
Although the Clippers can offer Jordan a contract valued at more than $100 million over the next five years, he is 26 and has missed only two games over the last five seasons, making him a perfect candidate to sign a short-term deal in free agency.
Inking a two-year contract with a player option for 2016-17 lets Jordan hit the open market again next summer, when the cap explodes. Leaving Los Angeles for Dallas would force him to wait three seasons before the Mavericks own his Bird rights, but the outright difference in player salaries for 2016-17 mitigates much of the financial damage.
Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times is also hearing that Jordan isn't wholly happy with his role in the Clippers offense. And that role is not going to change anytime soon.
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are the focal points and need primary control of the rock. Jordan will always be a pick-and-roll or alley-oop tool while playing beside them.
Joining the Mavericks won't necessarily guarantee him more touches. Coach Rick Carlisle deploys a pick-and-roll-packed offense that will demand Jordan do everything he does now. The Mavericks also ranked 27th in post-up frequency last season and aren't about to groom Jordan's back-to-the-basket game.
Yet, if this is a status thing, Dallas has curb appeal.
Nowitzki remains the team's highest-profile player and isn't nearly as polarizing as Griffin or Paul. With Ellis and Rondo good as gone, Jordan instantly becomes the Mavericks' most or second most important player—a stark shift from the role of third fiddle he's pigeonholed to now.
5. Tim Duncan
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Biggest Threat: The creation of a time machine that would send Tim Duncan back to the summer of 2000 and force him to sign with the Orlando Magic.
Basically, there is no existing threat that will keep Duncan from returning to the San Antonio Spurs for a 19th season and shot at a sixth NBA title.
Not even retirement is a factor anymore. Ken Berger of CBS Sports wrote that the Spurs are already operating under the assumption that both Duncan and Manu Ginobili will return for 2015-16.
With Father Time bound and gagged and locked in his plaid-shirt closet, Duncan has no reason to retire either. He's 39 years young and coming off a seven-game playoff campaign in which he averaged 17.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.4 blocks on 58.9 percent shooting.
All that's left to ponder at this point is how much coin Duncan will be making.
Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News has the Spurs and Duncan shaking hands on a deal that would pay him between $6 million and $7 million next season—a discounted rate that paves the way for San Antonio to do some serious free-agent shopping.
Absent a foray into the past—specifically the summer of 2000, when Duncan flirted with the idea of spurning San Antonio for Orlando, per Sports On Earth's Tim Casey—the Spurs have nothing to worry about.
4. Kevin Love
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Biggest Threat: Los Angeles Lakers
Kevin Love's stature as the NBA's biggest superstar flight risk is gradually fading.
Pretty much every sign ever now points to him re-signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers, according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst—which truthfully makes too much sense.
Two victories separated the Cavaliers from their first championship, and that was without Love. Think of what LeBron James and crew could accomplish with him.
Having another superstar in the chamber seldom hurts, and Cleveland was much better statistically with Love compared to without him. Assuming health, he gives the Cavaliers enough firepower to steamroll the Eastern Conference yet again.
Frankly, it's also too darn early for this partnership to end. Love has done nothing but pledge his allegiance to Cleveland, and the Cavaliers traded Andrew Wiggins, a megastar in the making, to get him.
They can also offer Love more money than any other suitor if he intends to sign a long-term deal. If he's looking to re-enter free agency once the cap explodes, it still behooves him to give this marriage another year and then re-evaluate his options next summer, when his departure wouldn't be a public relations nightmare.
Then again, the threat of the Lakers, despite claims to the contrary, remains ubiquitous.'Take what Grantland's Zach Lowe and Windhorst said while recording a late-May episode of The Lowe Post podcast (h/t RealGM):
""Every executive I talk to, every agent I talk to, every quasi insider, every girlfriend's cousin's sister's boyfriend all says this guy is out of there," said Brian Windhorst during a podcast with Zach Lowe.
"I hear the same thing from everybody,; said Lowe. 'From everyone that is two or three or four steps removed. I don't quite believe all of that."
"I agree," replied Windhorst.
"Part of what's going on there is the Lakers' boogeyman,' said Lowe. 'They don't just say he's out of there, they say 'He's going to the Lakers.' That has much to do with the fear people have of the Lakers as it does with Kevin Love."
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Passing over Jahlil Okafor for Russell with the No. 2 pick in this year's draft leaves the Lakers still in need of a big man. Love is a natural fit as a floor-spacing 4 and California native.
Plus, Jordan looks like he'll end up with the Mavericks or Clippers, and Marc Gasol has no interest in sporting purple and gold, per the Los Angeles Times' Mike Bresnahan. The Lakers, then, are limited to a market of two premier big men: Aldridge and Love.
Neither is a touted rim protector, but they both shoot threes and can play beside fellow bigs who do protect the rim. Love is just the more realistic option between the two—if only because Spurs coach Gregg Popovich doesn't seem to have his number stored on his pay-as-you-go flip phone's speed dial.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge
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Biggest Threat: San Antonio Spurs
If you're wondering which NBA free agents Popovich does have on speed dial, wonder no more.
A person "with knowledge" of the situation told the Columbian's Erik Gundersen that Aldridge has already informed the Blazers of his intent to leave. He later denied the rumor through general manager Neil Olshey, per CSNNW, but Portland's actions speak louder than Aldridge's resistance.
Flipping Nicolas Batum to the Charlotte Hornets for Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh doesn't look good. Vonleh plays Aldridge's position, and Batum, even after a career-worst season, ensured the Blazers would remain competitive in the Wild West.
Marc Stein and Chris Broussard of ESPN.com have also pegged San Antonio as Aldridge's "most likely" destination. And knowing it's impossible to pinpoint a better fit, that's all the evidence one needs to buy stock in this scenario.
Bringing on Aldridge will cost the Spurs two of Boris Diaw, Green (free agent) and Tiago Splitter. They're not known for blowing up the roster on a whim, but exceptional times call for exceptional measures.
Duncan and Ginobili won't be around much longer. Same goes for Popovich. A soon-to-be 30-year-old Aldridge wedges the Spurs' title window open well past their departures, giving them someone to pair with Kawhi Leonard for at least the next five or six years—future contract negotiations permitting.
Aldridge is also a seamless fit for the Spurs' system, able to function as a tertiary playmaker and on- or off-ball weapon. With the exception of last season, he posted an assist percentage north of 10 in each of his four previous campaigns, and he has expanded his offensive arsenal to include three-point attempts.
To wit: He shot a career-best 35.2 percent from beyond the arc last season while drilling more treys (37) than he did through his first eight crusades combined (24).
Everything about the Spurs signing Aldridge, right down to the unavoidable collateral damage, just feels right.
2. Marc Gasol
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Biggest Threat: New York Knicks
Imagination is a prerequisite for this one.
According to the New York Post's Fred Kerber, the Knicks long ago gave up hope that they could sign Gasol. That's by no means an absurd notion. The Memphis Grizzlies have made a concerted effort to diversify the roster and remain favorites to sign the big man, per Wojnarowski.
But Gasol hasn't committed to anything. In fact, while doing an interview for Catalan radio station RAC1 (h/t EuroHoops.net), he sounded undecided about his future. That, coupled with his reported distaste for the Lakers, at least leaves the door open for the financially flexible Knicks to get in on the Gasol sweepstakes.
So too does his fit in their triangle offense.
Finding a preeminent behemoth who can score and pass from the post is part and parcel of running the triangle. And, as CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote, Gasol is that player:
"Gasol is a Brahma bull that moves lightning quick like a hippo and can hedge a ball-handler to the sideline, to the concession stand, to their home down the street. He has a sweet running hook and a series of counter moves. He's quick and agile, but also powerful and strong. He possesses better passing instincts than 90 percent of the two-guards in the NBA and about half of the starting point guards. A ruthless competitor and quality leader, Gasol can anchor your defense, makes winning plays, shares the ball, and generally speaking, makes your entire team better.
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Depending on how much the Knicks play rookie Kristaps Porzingis, signing Gasol could chain Carmelo Anthony to the 3 spot. But Porzingis' playing time will be curbed no matter what, so Anthony should still see ample time at the 4, where he's best suited.
Besides, that's a promising frontcourt trio. Porzingis stands at 7'1 ¼" without shoes, per ESPN New York's Ian Begley, and can shimmy between the 4 and 5 while Anthony does the same between the 3 and 4.
When Gasol's contract is up in four years—three, if a player option is included for 2018-19—the Knicks will have a better idea of whether Porzingis is a full-time 4 or 5 and can go from there.
Indeed, the rumor mill doesn't bode well for this pairing. But the Knicks have cap space. And so long as they have cap space—as well as a 31-year-old Anthony in tow—they're going to also have eyes for the biggest names available.
1. LeBron James
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Biggest Threat: Cleveland LeBrons Cavaliers
Twenty-nine other teams would love to sign James.
Exactly zero of those teams have a chance at signing James.
Opting out of his contract is all business. It allows James to sign for slightly more money ahead of next season, and the threat of him leaving forces the Cavaliers to act swiftly and extravagantly as they look to maintain and retool the roster.
There is no other subplot to James' free agency. He won't even be taking meetings with other organizations, according to Broussard.
And why would he? He has unparalleled power in Cleveland, and the ramifications of jumping ship again would be unfathomably detrimental to his legacy.
Really, the Cavaliers are their own biggest threat. They have James, and he's planning on staying in Cleveland for the long haul.
They're the only ones capable of turning this sure thing into an unnecessary issue.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information courtesy of Basketball Insiders and Larry Coon's CBA FAQ. Draft-pick commitments from RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
