Breaking Down Danny Ainge's Recent NBA Draft Track Record with Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge is widely considered to be one of the top drafters in the NBA. He built that reputation shortly after joining the Celtics front office in 2003 by nabbing an impressive collection of mid-to-late first-round selections in the mid-2000s.

Al Jefferson (No. 15 overall, 2004) proved to be the centerpiece of the deal that brought Kevin Garnett to Boston in 2007. Rajon Rondo (No. 21 via Phoenix, 2006) was the best Celtics player in the postseason for the 2010 NBA Finals runner-up. 

Ainge also nabbed diamonds in the rough such as Kendrick Perkins (No. 27 via Memphis, 2003), Delonte West (No. 24, 2004) and Tony Allen (No. 25, 2004) who served as valuable trade chips or useful role players during the Big Three era. 

In recent years, however, some pundits have questioned whether Ainge is in a bit of a drafting slump. Unlike the first few years of his tenure in Boston, he has selected some busts recently, and no franchise building blocks are in sight, outside of potentially Marcus Smart.

Has Ainge’s drafting ability fallen off after a strong start? Or is the seasoned GM merely making the best of some mediocre draft classes?

Let’s take a closer look at Ainge’s first-round picks in the last five drafts to determine whether he is still worthy of his stellar reputation.

2010: No. 19 Avery Bradley

Steven Senne/Associated Press

School/Year: Texas, Freshman

Position/Height: SG, 6'3"

Career NBA Stats: 10.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 43.5 FG%, 36.0 3P% (282 games)

Notable Players Selected After Bradley: No. 33 Hassan Whiteside, No. 40 Lance Stephenson

When critics question Ainge’s drafting track record in recent years, Avery Bradley is the first player he should point to in rebuttal. Bradley was unable to make an impact in his rookie season at age 19, but he has progressed admirably during his five years in the league.

Bradley’s on-ball defense has always been his strong point since first earning rotation minutes during the 2011-12 campaign, but the shooting guard has matured as a capable scorer as well, averaging 14.4 points per game in the last two seasons. 

Ainge believed he was getting a steal when he selected Bradley at No. 19 in 2010, and that proved to be true. Outside of Eric Bledsoe (No. 18) and Paul George (No. 10), Bradley has had the best career to date of any prospect selected in the teens from that class. After signing a four-year extension last summer, Bradley appears poised to be a member of the Celtics' starting backcourt for seasons to come.

2011: No. 27 JaJuan Johnson

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

School/Year: Purdue, Senior

Position/Height: PF, 6'10"

Career Stats: 3.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.2 APG, 44.6 FG%, N/A 3P% (36 games)

Notable Players Selected After Johnson: No. 28 Norris Cole, No. 30 Jimmy Butler, No. 38 Chandler Parsons, No. 60 Isaiah Thomas

The biggest blemish on Ainge’s resume came in 2011 with the selection of JaJuan Johnson. The former Purdue star saw spot minutes at reserve power forward for one year in Boston before being shipped off to the Houston Rockets as salary filler in a sign-and-trade deal for Courtney Lee in July 2012. 

Houston waived Johnson before the start of the 2012-13 season, and the big man has bounced around the NBA Development League and international game since. Normally, whiffing on a late first-round pick would not cause a GM much grief, but the emergence of Jimmy Butler, whom the Bulls selected right behind Johnson at No. 30, looms large. Dozens of players selected after Johnson had better careers, but Butler was projected by many to head to Boston in the days leading up to the 2011 draft. 

The Celtics could have used a reserve wing to take the onus off Ray Allen and Paul Pierce at the tail end of the Big Three era, and Butler fit that mold. The team worked him out in 2011 but did not pull the trigger on draft night. Years later, this may be the pick Ainge regrets the most.

*Johnson was acquired via trade with Brooklyn Nets.

2012: No. 21 Jared Sullinger, No. 22 Fab Melo

Garrett Ellwood/Getty Images

Jared Sullinger

School/Year: Ohio State, Sophomore 

Position/Height: PF, 6'7" 

Career Stats: 11.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, 44 FG%, 27.5 3P% (177 games)

Fab Melo

School/Year: Syracuse, Sophomore

Position/Height: C, 7'0"

Career Stats: 1.2 PPG, 0.5 RPG, 0 APG, 50 FG% (six games)

Notable Players Selected After Sullinger and Melo: No. 34 Jae Crowder, No. 35 Draymond Green, No. 39 Khris Middleton

You have to gamble in the NBA draft when you select in the 20s, and Ainge took a chance with both of his first-round picks in 2012. Despite experiencing weight and injury issues, Sullinger has proved to be worth the roll of the dice at No. 21.

He’s outperformed many players taken ahead of him in the teens (Maurice Harkless, Kendall Marshall, Andrew Nicholson), despite being sidelined for significant portions of his first three seasons. With a contract year upcoming, Sullinger has plenty to prove, but he’s shown the capability to regularly post double-double when healthy. He’s not a core piece for the Celtics but has been a net positive pick for Ainge. 

We can't say the same for Fab Melo. Boston desperately needed size in the summer of 2012, so the team took a risk on the former Syracuse star at No. 22. The highlight of Melo’s career proved to be falling through a chair at an NBA rookie photo shoot. After suiting up for just six games in green, Melo was sent to the Memphis Grizzlies in the summer of 2013 and has been out of the league since.

Celtics director of player personnel Austin Ainge addressed past draft gambles such as Melo and Sullinger this past week in an interview with Bleacher Report:

"

There are guys every year [that we red flag], whether it’s concerns we have about their off-court life, or their health or game. We eliminate guys based on those reasons every year, and that’s the process. I will say it’s a bit of a sliding scale, right? You have to be better than your problems. We are willing to put up with a little more [with some guys]. 

Without talking about some of the background issues we have found in players, I’ll make a parallel: Leon Powe had knee issues in college, and it was a big risk [to take him] in the first round in 2006, but at some point in the 40s, it was worth the risk. [Powe was selected at No. 49 in the 2006 NBA draft and traded to Boston]. You can use the same exact thing sometimes with their personality and/or off-court issues. Sometimes you say, 'let’s give them a few months in training camp and see if they can mature.'

"

In hindsight, it’s hard to fault Ainge for drafting Melo when the remaining picks in the 20s of the first round did very little. There were some valuable pieces taken in the second round, but dozens of executives passed on Green and Middleton, so Ainge shouldn’t get too much heat for it.

2013: No. 13 Kelly Olynyk

Jason Miller/Getty Images

 School/Year: Gonzaga, Junior

Position/Height: C, 7'0"

Career Stats: 9.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 47.1 FG%, 34.9 3P% (134 games)

Notable Players Selected After Olynyk: No. 15 Giannis Antetokounmpo, No. 20 Tony Snell, No. 21 Gorgui Dieng, No. 27 Rudy Gobert 

Ainge dealt away two 2014 second-round picks to the Dallas Mavericks in order to grab Kelly Olynyk at No. 13, and the jury is still out on how wise a decision that was. The 7-footer has shown promising glimpses of passing and outside shooting in his first two seasons, but his limitations on defense are glaring.

He lacks the athleticism to stick with many bigs, and he is simply not an interior presence when it comes to rebounding or shot blocking.

Olynyk’s selection was one of the few lottery picks Ainge has made during his Celtics tenure. Boston, like most teams, missed on a couple of gems later in the first round in Antetokounmpo and Gobert. However, Olynyk has been a useful contributor, and his production matches up with his spot. Ainge gets a passing grade for this choice. 

*Olynyk was acquired via trade with the Dallas Mavericks.

2014: No. 6 Marcus Smart, No. 17 James Young

Brian Babineau/Getty Images

Marcus Smart

School/Year: Oklahoma State, Sophomore

Position/Height: PG, 6'4"

Career Stats: 7.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.1 APG, 36.7 FG%, 33.5 3P% (67 games)

James Young

School/Year: Kentucky, Freshman

Position/Height: SG, 6'6"

Career Stats: 3.4 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 35.3 FG%, 25.8 3P% (31 games)

Notable Players Selected After Smart and Young: No. 10 Elfrid Payton, No. 16 Jusuf Nurkic, No. 23 Rodney Hood

One year is far too early to make an accurate assessment on either of these players, but Marcus Smart did earn rave reviews for the majority of his rookie campaign thanks to his stellar defense. The former Oklahoma State star has to improve his ugly field-goal percentage, but his versatility in defending multiple positions ensures he will have a spot in any team's rotation for years to come. 

At age 18, James Young was the youngest player selected in the 2015 NBA draft and spent much of his debut season in the D-League with the Maine Red Claws. The swingman showed a reliable outside shooting touch in his 17 games there (44.2 percent from three-point range), but those numbers have not yet translated to the NBA level. Young also has to develop on the defensive end before Brad Stevens can trust him with regular minutes. Still, there's plenty of untapped potential here. 

In Bleacher Report's 2014 NBA re-draft, Smart went to the Celtics again at No. 6, while Young fell into the late 20s. So for now, it appears Ainge hit on at least one of his two picks.