Predicting the Biggest Surprises of the 2015 NBA Offseason
If there's one thing the NBA's offseason rarely lacks, it's drama.
From LeBron James' decision to take his talents South Beach-ward in 2010 (and back to Cleveland in 2014) to Chandler Parsons flipping from one Texas-based team to another last summer, the league often features at least a handful of genuine surprises during the draft and free agency.
The 2015 offseason promises to be no different, with a number of top-tier stars set to reach the free-agent market. While Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan could elect to re-sign with their respective franchises, the smart money would be on at least one of them departing for a different locale come July.
Unpredictability, likewise, figures to reign supreme during the draft, as the teams toward the top of the board could go in any number of directions on June 25. While the Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic should stick with the "best player available" approach, the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers could decide to flip their top-five picks for immediate veteran help.
Using recent reports and informed speculation as a guide, the following offseason surprises figure to have the largest league-wide impact, both in the short term and long term. Though not all will come to fruition—spare me your crowing in three months' time, please—each is at least a realistic possibility to occur.
Kevin Love Will Sign a Long-Term Contract with Cleveland
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No matter how often Kevin Love declares his intention to return to the Cleveland Cavaliers next season, skeptics will remain in full force until he puts pen to paper. During a recent appearance on the podcast The Lowe Post, ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst and Grantland's Zach Lowe discussed that ongoing speculation (via RealGM.com):
""Every executive I talk to, every agent I talk to, every quasi insider, every girlfriend's cousin's sister's boyfriend all says this guy is out of there," said Windhorst.
"I hear the same thing from everybody," said Lowe. "From everyone that is two or three or four steps removed."
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Both Lowe and Windhorst proceeded to express their skepticism about Love's supposedly imminent departure, with the former placing some blame for the rumors on the "Lakers boogeyman." Windhorst, meanwhile, noted how Love "has at every turn even gone out of his way to make statements about how he intends to remain in Cleveland."
To wit: When a reporter in late May asked if he expected to return to the Cavaliers in 2015-16, Love replied, "Yes sir," per Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. He likewise told ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne he wanted to continue playing for Cleveland because "I want to win."
As Daniel Leroux explained at Sporting News, it makes little sense for Love to sign a long-term extension with Cleveland this summer, as "waiting a year... could mean about $6.2 million more in the first year of the deal" thanks to the impending salary-cap spike. Fresh off his second season-ending injury in three years, however, the security of a long-term deal with Cleveland will entice Love to ignore the minor financial setback.
Emmanuel Mudiay Will Fall to Sacramento at No. 6
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For much of the year, the 2015 draft class appeared to have a clear top four: Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns, Duke center Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State combo guard D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, who spent the past season in China. Two weeks from the draft, that may no longer be the case.
The New York Knicks, holders of the No. 4 overall pick, are threatening to throw draft boards into chaos if they decide to keep their selection. "From what I am hearing from individuals close to the draft process in New York City, the Knicks have almost 'no idea' what to do at number four," Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton recently reported.
Following the lottery, ESPN.com's Chad Ford suggested the Knicks are "big Justise Winslow fans" and said he's "not sure they're sold on Mudiay." Frank Isola of the New York Daily News extrapolated on New York's supposed stance toward Mudiay, writing that teams under the command of Knicks president Phil Jackson "historically never feature a top point guard" and mentioning the franchise's belief in Langston Galloway turning into a key contributor.
Instead, the Knicks may turn their attention to Kentucky forward Trey Lyles, whom they have been "enamored with" for months, per Isola. ESPN.com's Ian Begley, meanwhile, reported New York will host workouts for Murray State point guard Cameron Payne and Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein, both of whom could be targets either at No. 4 or if the team trades down.
The Orlando Magic are already set at point guard with Elfrid Payton, last year's No. 10 overall selection, so the Knicks bypassing Mudiay should send him tumbling down to the Sacramento Kings at No. 6. According to Sean Deveney of Sporting News, his draft-day slide will end there, as "there's no way he'd get past the Kings," one league source told him.
Mike D'Antoni Will Resurrect Linsanity in Denver
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Despite playing at the league's fourth-fastest pace this past season, the Denver Nuggets limped their way to a 30-52 record, earning head coach Brian Shaw a pink slip in the process. Denver is hoping to play even faster in 2015-16, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, which figures to help determine who the franchise hires as its next head coach.
One candidate under consideration is Mike D'Antoni, the architect of the mid-2000s Phoenix Suns' famed "seven seconds or less" offense. If Denver is serious about hiring an offensive-minded coach—other candidates include former Sacramento Kings head coach Mike Malone, Portland Trail Blazers assistant David Vanterpool and interim Nuggets coach Melvin Hunt—it won't find a better fit than D'Antoni.
Assuming the Nuggets hire the 64-year-old, his first order of business should be luring Jeremy Lin to the Mile High City. Lin experienced his greatest professional success under D'Antoni during the pair's days with the New York Knicks in 2011-12, setting career highs in points per game (14.6), player efficiency rating (19.9), usage rate (28.1), win shares per 48 minutes (.140) and box plus/minus (2.2).
It's no surprise Lin thrived under D'Antoni's pick-and-roll-centric attack, as the Harvard product considers those types of plays his bread and butter. "That's who I am," Lin told Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News in March. "That's what allowed me to have success in the past. That's the reason why people are paying me money to play pick-and-roll."
D'Antoni shouldn't have much trouble luring Lin away from the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency, given how much the 26-year-old butted heads with head coach Byron Scott. If Lin can carve out a significant role with the Nuggets—a strong possibility with Ty Lawson and Jameer Nelson no lock to return—Peyton Manning won't be the only professional athlete drawing rave reviews in Denver this fall.
The Pacers Will Send Roy Hibbert to New York
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During his season-ending press conference, Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird made it clear the team will look far different in 2015-16. "I was talking to coach earlier; we'd like to play a little faster tempo," Bird told reporters. "And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller."
That stylistic shift doesn't seem to bode well for Roy Hibbert's long-term future with the franchise. Speaking about the lumbering 7'2" center, who has a $15.5 million player option for the 2015-16 season, Bird told reporters, "I can't guarantee him anything. He's going to have to earn it."
Instead of parking the two-time All-Star on their bench for 20-plus minutes a night, the Pacers should shop him around the league this summer if he does decide to opt in. One logical destination is the New York Knicks, who are badly in need of a rim protector after having traded Tyson Chandler to the Dallas Mavericks last June.
By virtue of falling to the No. 4 spot, the Knicks are all but guaranteed to miss out on either Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns or Duke's Jahlil Okafor. Kentucky center Willie-Cauley Stein should still be available when New York is on the clock, but given the team's wealth of needs—it only has five players under contract for the 2015-16 season—it can't afford to deviate from the "best player available" strategy.
Trading the No. 4 pick to Indiana for Hibbert and the No. 11 would allow the Pacers to grab Cauley-Stein, who would fit into the versatile scheme they're pursing, while giving the Knicks two quality pieces for the price of one. The deal couldn't officially go through until Hibbert opted in, but the two sides could agree in principle prior to the draft, allowing each to take players for the other at Nos. 4 and 11.
Dwyane Wade Will Leave the Miami Heat
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It's hard to believe Dwyane Wade may have already played his last game as a member of the Miami Heat, but it's true. The so-called "Heat Lifer" is reportedly "open to at least considering other teams this summer" if he and the franchise can't agree upon contract terms once he declines his player option and becomes an unrestricted free agent, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
According to Jackson, "Wade would welcome a contract averaging $20 million annually over the next three years," while the Heat reportedly want the 11-time All-Star to opt in for $16.1 million before becoming a free agent in 2016. A Wade associate told Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick the team "intended to offer less than $10 million per season on a three-year deal," a claim Miami vehemently denied.
Why are the Heat so wary of handing a huge contract to a 33-year-old guard with a history of knee problems, beyond the obvious health concerns? As BBALLBREAKDOWN's Matthew Way explained in February, Hassan Whiteside's impending free agency in 2016 is already looming large in this summer's contract negotiations.
Miami only holds early Bird rights on Whiteside, not full Bird rights, by virtue of him being signed to a two-year deal. Accordingly, the team can only exceed the salary cap to re-sign him if he agrees to a contract worth no more than 104.5 percent of the average player salary in 2015-16, which should be somewhere around $6 million.
If the Heat hand Wade the contract he desires and sign Goran Dragic to a max contract this summer, they'd be all but guaranteed to lose Whiteside next year, as he figures to command a far higher annual salary than $6 million. Given team president Pat Riley's history of not bending in contract negotiations, the prospect of Wade suiting up in a different uniform this fall may very well go from unfathomable to reality.
Goran Dragic Will Sign with the L.A. Lakers
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If Dwyane Wade follows through on his threat to leave the Miami Heat this summer, the fallout will have wide-reaching implications across the league. It also could prove devastating to Miami's chances of re-signing point guard Goran Dragic, who is set to decline his player option and become an unrestricted free agent like Wade.
"We are monitoring closely what's going on; Wade is a very important piece for Miami's future; he's a superstar," one of Dragic's two agents, Rade Filipovich, told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "Goran wants Wade to stay. But it's my opinion. I can't answer for Goran. It's not the focus for Goran."
If both Wade and Luol Deng walk this summer and Miami signs Dragic to a five-year max contract, the team will still only be able to use the mid-level and/or bi-annual exceptions to add other pieces of note. While Dragic, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside would comprise a strong Big Three, Miami's depth outside of those players wouldn't drive fear into the heart of any opponent.
Accordingly, if Wade walks in free agency, Dragic figures to follow him out the door, perhaps with an eye on Los Angeles. The Lakers plan on extending "an aggressive four-year offer" to Dragic, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, and the Slovenian floor general supposedly "'loves the opportunity' to join the Lakers and sees them as a 'perfect fit,'" Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News reported at the trade deadline in February.
Armed with the No. 2 overall pick, Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson, the Lakers' post-Kobe Bryant future suddenly appears bright, which could help lure Dragic to the City of Angels. Though he'd be sacrificing nearly $30 million of financial security by leaving Miami, he could always sign a two-year deal with a second-year player option to take advantage of the impending cap spike in 2016.
The Rockets Will Trade for Ty Lawson
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Point guard Ty Lawson and the Denver Nuggets appear to be careening toward a breakup this offseason. According to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post, "If Lawson wants to remain with the Nuggets, he has an uphill battle to convince the organization there are enough good reasons to put him back on the untouchable list."
The Houston Rockets, long in pursuit of a third star to play alongside James Harden and Dwight Howard, would be a logical trade partner. Following the Rockets' loss to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, Harden expressed how he hopes the Rockets acquire someone to alleviate some of his ball-handling duties next season, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins.
Houston could always use its first-round pick to draft such a player—the team has "been on" Duke floor general Tyus Jones "for a while," per ESPN.com's Chad Ford. However, with the Rockets firmly in "win now" mode, relying upon a rookie floor general is a dangerous proposition come playoff time, especially in the Western Conference, where Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Mike Conley and Tony Parker lurk.
Grantland's Zach Lowe called Houston "an intriguing possibility" for Lawson, noting, "He'd probably shoot better from deep on the diet of spot-up looks Harden would feed him, and the Rockets could use another guy who can work off the bounce." Lowe mentioned Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, along with the No. 18 overall pick, as possible trade bait.
It would take some creative financial finagling from general manager Daryl Morey, but a deal structured around the No. 18 pick, Kostas Papanikolaou and one of Jones or Motiejunas for Lawson should do the trick. The Nuggets could use that pick on a replacement floor general, and acquiring either Jones or Motiejunas could enable them to move on from Kenneth Faried too.
LaMarcus Aldridge Will Sign in Detroit
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Last offseason, LaMarcus Aldridge told Joe Freeman of the Oregonian he wanted "to be the best Blazer—ever" and he didn't "have any reason to jump ship." One year later, it appears as though his long-term future with the Portland Trail Blazers is far more up in the air than he indicated to Freeman.
"LaMarcus feels, as all great players do, that wherever he goes he'll have a great chance," a source familiar with his thinking told Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher. "But don't think about this as what makes the most sense. He feels he's been in Portland a long time and that maybe it's time for a change. That's what is driving this."
Given the disparity between the Eastern and Western Conferences, Aldridge's best chance of advancing deep into the playoffs would be to join an up-and-coming East team. With the Detroit Pistons having just hired his agent, Arn Tellem, as vice chairman of Palace Sports & Entertainment, don't rule out the prospect of Aldridge signing in the Motor City this summer.
Even after factoring in the salary of the newly acquired Ersan Ilyasova ($7.9 million) along with the cap holds of their No. 8 overall pick ($2.4 million) and Reggie Jackson ($5.5 million), the Pistons should enter free agency with somewhere around $18.5 million in cap space. With a bit of finagling, Detroit could free up enough room to sign Aldridge to a four-year max deal, which should start at around $18.8 million.
The four-time All-Star would be an ideal pick-and-pop complement to Jackson, and his floor-spacing ability could help Andre Drummond break out as one of the league's most terrifying young centers. If the Pistons can lure Aldridge, ink Jackson to an extension and grab Mario Hezonja or Stanley Johnson with their first-round pick, they'd suddenly become an under-the-radar contender in the East.
All statistics via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com, unless otherwise noted. All contract information via Spotrac.com or Basketball Insiders. All salary-cap information via Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, unless otherwise noted.
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