Ranking Toronto Raptors' Best Options with No. 20 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
The No. 20 pick in the NBA draft has been a who's who of who cares since the lottery was introduced back in 1985.
The only noteworthy names of the bunch are Jameer Nelson and Zydrunas Ilgauskas—both of whom made at least one All-Star team, and the Cleveland Cavaliers retired Ilgauskas' number in 2014.
The Toronto Raptors will hope that their selection this year will break the trend of mediocrity, although history won't be on their side.
This will be the third time Toronto selects at No. 20, having drafted Kareem Rush in 2002 (who was immediately traded to the Los Angeles Lakers) and Bruno Caboclo in 2014.
A bottom-third pick won't fix everything in one fell swoop, but general manager Masai Ujiri's Raptors have a number of needs after being swept out of the NBA playoffs by the Washington Wizards—with rebounding and defensive efficiency being the two biggest.
Ujiri likely won't make any earth-shattering moves on June 25, but if he plays his cards right, he can take his lowly first-rounder and turn it into something head coach Dwane Casey can incorporate into his rotation in 2015-16.
5. Shock the World (Again) by Taking a Relative Unknown
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It won't be a popular scenario with fans, but it's one we saw Ujiri pull off not too long ago.
Picking Caboclo in last year's draft was one of the most bewildering moments of the night. Not only did NBA Commissioner Adam Silver mispronounce his name, but Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski—who had been spoiling picks throughout the evening on his Twitter account—had no idea Ujiri was going to roll the dice on the Basketball Without Borders MVP.
It was "an all-time swing for the fences pick," ESPN's Fran Fraschilla proclaimed following the shocking selection. Caboclo won't make his presence known for quite some time, though. He's still raw, as his physical framework and skill set on the floor are works in progress.
With the Raptors getting their own D-League affiliate next season, players like Caboclo will now have the opportunity to play guaranteed minutes of worthwhile basketball instead of withering away at the end of Casey's bench.
This also increases the chances of Ujiri scouring the globe again for another unknown talent who can pay dividends down the road. Stashing talent in the D-League and knowing they'll receive the proper training—unlike last year when the Raptors had to share the Fort Wayne Mad Ants with a number of other teams—will help provide peace of mind for the future.
Toronto would gladly welcome a prospect who could play on opening night, but as the history of the No. 20 pick shows, the chances of that happening are slim.
If there's another Brazilian Kevin Durant hiding in the shadows, Ujiri will do his best to find him. Or maybe he's already on Ujiri's radar, as team vice president Jeff Weltman jokingly said to Eric Koreen of the National Post: “We’re hiding him in plain sight."
4. Select Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
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The Raptors are still hoping Terrence Ross can one day develop into the quintessential three-and-D wing who can rain three-pointers and shut down his assignment on a regular basis. His 37.2 three-point percentage is respectable, but his countless mistakes on the defensive end are killing his chances of ever being what the team needs.
Selecting Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a 6'7" forward out of the University of Arizona, would provide Casey with someone who could give Ross a run for his money—if the rookie could ever establish some sort of outside game, that is.
Hollis-Jefferson was one of the most athletic college wings in the country, using his physical gifts to become a defensive nuisance and a thorn in the side of the opposition's best player. He was a huge reason why Xavier's Trevon Bluiett scored just two points on 1-of-6 shooting in the Sweet 16.
Toronto needs all the help it can get toward becoming a top-10 defensive squad again. Casey's players allowed 104.8 points per 100 possessions (23rd) during the regular season, a noticeable decline from its ranking one season earlier (102.4, ninth).
Combining the efforts of Ross and Hollis-Jefferson would create the ideal three-and-D swingman, with Ross spreading the floor and Hollis-Jefferson keeping his man at bay. That potential dynamic would change in a hurry, though, if the Wildcats rookie improves on his 20.7 three-point percentage and 32.8 percentage on jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com.
Altering his mechanics would help fix his shooting woes immensely, as J.Z. Mazlish of UpsideMotor.com explains:
"Hollis-Jefferson cocks the ball back too far behind his head, turns dramatically sideways, and the hitch in his release makes it hard to watch. It’s possible that Hollis-Jefferson can stick with his current form and become a decent shooter, but it’s unlikely to happen. If he is going to develop into a serviceable shooter, he is going to need to re-work his form completely.
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He's not a complete package, but Hollis-Jefferson's defensive intangibles and competitive nature may be too enticing for Ujiri to pass on.
3. Package the Pick in a Trade
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No one would be disappointed if Ujiri got rid of the pick in some capacity. There are no guarantees this late in the draft, so why even bother?
ESPN's Jalen Rose and Bill Simmons questioned the Caboclo pick in 2014, wondering whether Ujiri should have just traded down, acquired some assets and still taken the guy he wanted. That could be the strategy this year, with no surefire bets after the lottery and the possibility of other teams looking to move up in the order.
Trading down may be best for business.
Ujiri hasn't been outspoken about any talent projected to go in the first 10 or so picks, so it's unlikely he'll put together a package to snag someone near the top.
That didn't stop Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal from conjuring up an intriguing trade proposal involving the Raptors and Orlando Magic, though. In the deal, Toronto would send All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan to Orlando in exchange for the No. 5 pick:
"DeRozan isn't an ideal fit for the Magic, who desperately need some outside shooting. But even his mid-range prowess would be a welcome addition to the Orlando offense, and his defense would certainly complement Payton and Oladipo's talents.
For this to work, the Toronto Raptors would have to be totally sold on blowing up their core after an embarrassing playoff sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards. They may well be, and getting access to someone like Stanley Johnson at No. 5 would certainly make a small-scale rebuild an easier pill for the passionate fanbase to swallow.
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Don't hold your breath if you're pining for that, or a similar deal, to come to fruition. There are no signs the Raptors are going to start from scratch, so the chances of one of the team's most valuable players—who's earning a fair salary for the next two years—being sent away aren't good.
2. Roll with a Point Guard
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Greivis Vasquez isn't cutting it as the Raptors' backup point guard anymore.
He was a liability defensively every time he stepped on the hardwood, and his trigger-happy spurts on offense were beyond annoying. His biggest problem is that he tries to do too much by himself rather than settling in to what he does best—being a facilitator.
Toronto needs a different man playing behind All-Star Kyle Lowry—someone who can hold his own on offense and serve as the defensive spark the team doesn't have at the position. John Wall had a field day in the playoffs against both Lowry and Vasquez, torching the Raptors for 17.3 points and 12.5 assists through four games.
Two names that pop out are Jerian Grant of Notre Dame and Delon Wright from the University of Utah—playmaking 6'5" point guards who won't shy away on defense.
Grant, who was a consensus first-team All-American and ACC tournament MVP, averaged 16.5 points and 6.7 assists in his last season with the Fighting Irish.
Chris Johnson and Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated have the 22-year-old landing with Toronto: "As Toronto bounces back from a disappointing playoff performance, Grant’s experience, size and playmaking ability add depth and diversity to the Raptors backcourt. He’ll learn from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and could become a rotation contributor sooner than later."
Ujiri could probably move down a few spots and snag Wright, with DraftExpress.com projecting him to fall to the Golden State Warriors at No. 30. His jumper needs a lot of work, and his upside is limited since he's already 23 years old, but what he brings to the table defensively can help compensate for any red flags. Wright ranked fourth in the NCAA with 3.1 defensive win shares, per Sports-Reference.com.
With Vasquez falling out of favor and Lowry being prone to aches and pains, the need for some new blood at point guard has never been greater. Toronto can't ignore Grant and Wright in the draft.
1. Pick the Best Available Big
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Amir Johnson, Chuck Hayes, Tyler Hansbrough and Greg Stiemsma are all unrestricted free agents this summer, which leaves Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas as the only regular bigs signed through 2015-16.
The team needs to make changes in the frontcourt regardless, with Toronto finishing near the bottom of the league in rebounding (41.5, 26th), blocked shots (4.4, 23rd) and defended field-goal percentage from less than six feet (60.5, 21st).
The collection of bigs projected to hover around the Raptors' pick is mouthwatering: Montrezl Harrell of Louisville, Christian Wood of UNLV and Kevon Looney of UCLA could all be available.
Johnson is/was the most prototypical forward on the roster, performing more of the physical tasks like hustling for loose balls, setting screens and crashing the glass. Valanciunas has lapses in confidence from time to time, while Patterson prefers to work his magic around the perimeter.
If Johnson leaves in free agency, Toronto will need a 4 to pair with Valanciunas in the starting lineup who can be the scrappy warrior and rugged defender Johnson was. Harrell fits the criteria perfectly, emulating Johnson's game to a tee by overcoming a lack of size (6'8") at his position through sheer willpower and determination. There's nothing he won't do to help his team succeed.
Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman describes Harrell as "a frontcourt energizer—a big man who finishes, rebounds, plays physical defense and makes plays around the basket without needing touches."
Wood and Looney have more range at their disposal than Harrell, as they can step outside and knock down some bombs from behind the arc.
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com analyzed Looney's shooting:
"Looney also shows potential as a floor-spacer, knocking down 22 of his 53 attempts (41.5%) from beyond the arc on the season in the 36 games he played in. The sample size leaves something to be desired here, particularly when you consider the fact that he shot just 63% from the free throw line, but his mechanics are solid and he appears to fairly consistent when shooting with his feet set.
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Their upside is through the roof, although stints in the D-League would be wise, especially for the 19-year-old Wood.
Christopher Walder is a Featured Columnist for the Toronto Raptors at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
Statistics provided by NBA.com/Stats and Hoop-Math.com unless otherwise mentioned.
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