NBA Playoffs 2015: Predicting the Top X-Factors in Finals Series
This is it. This is the culmination of a season’s worth of work, hardship and struggle. The NBA Finals, where dreams come true and legends are made, or at least that’s what the television broadcasts would have you believe.
It is all true, though. The Finals are the time when every mistake a player makes is amplified to the extreme and each shot carries a new level of pressure that hasn’t been seen in the subsequent rounds.
But while the biggest stars in the series—players like Stephen Curry and LeBron James—will be expected to shoulder the weight of these moments, it is often the lesser stars who make the biggest difference in the series.
So with two teams chock full of stars and the Golden State Warriors set to face off with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals starting next week, here are some of the smaller-name players who are primed to have the biggest impact on the final outcome.
J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers
While two of the game's best shooters will be sporting Warriors colors in the series, there is something special about watching Cleveland’s J.R. Smith get on a roll shooting the ball.
Much as he did against the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1, when the Cavaliers were struggling and needed a boost, Smith has shown in the past he has a second gear that, when reached, is almost impossible to guard.
On that night, Smith finished with 28 points and hit 8-of-12 shots from beyond the arc to help power the Cavaliers to a nine-point road win. It didn’t take long for the former New York Knick to undergo a serious transformation and lose almost all of the luster he had in Game 1:
Just a couple of nights later in Game 2, Smith finished with just nine points, only hitting one three-pointer and remaining a relative non-factor throughout. The Cavaliers won the game by 12 points, but it was largely without the help of the shooting guard.
Against the Warriors, whichever Smith shows up has the potential to shift the series in either team’s favor.
If good Smith is the one on the floor, it will be hard to stop the Cavaliers on offense with James and Kyrie Irving always threats to score. On the other hand, if it is bad Smith out there, the Warriors can put their best defenders on the two stars and watch the other players struggle to produce on offense.
Smith can’t single-handedly win a game or a series like some of his teammates can, but his play might very well be the deciding factor in the finals this year.
Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
In the same vein as Smith for the Cavaliers, Harrison Barnes is a player you never know quite what you are going to get from on any given night.
During a Game 3 blowout win against the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals, Barnes failed to score on 0-of-9 shooting, despite the Warriors dominating.
But in the fourth quarter of Game 5 with the Warriors holding onto a slim six-point lead, Barnes played the best he has in the playoffs, scoring nine-straight points for Golden State in a two-minute span to help extend the lead to 15 points. The team would never look back and Barnes would finish with a postseason-high 24 points in the series-clinching victory:
Barnes isn’t as accustomed to crazy swings in play like Smith is, and he can’t shoot the lights out of any building he walks into, but he does have the ability to turn a game on its head with a hot run of play.
There are already so many offensive weapons at the Warriors’ disposal that Barnes getting hot and taking over a game for a stretch makes the Western Conference champs nearly impossible to slow down.
Barnes is more likely to put up an average performance than hit either extreme, but if he has a great outing or a terrible one against the Cavaliers it could be just enough to make the difference that decides the series.
Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers
The final piece of the puzzle in the trade that also brought Cleveland Iman Shumpert and Smith, Timofey Mozgov was arguably the most important part of the Cavaliers' turnaround in the regular season and has been a key contributor throughout the postseason as well:
Tied for the third-most minutes on the team in the playoffs, Mozgov is averaging 9.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game as the starting center, but his biggest contribution comes on the defensive end of the floor.
Although not the best all-around defender on the Cavaliers roster—that honor belongs to James, of course— Mozgov’s presence around the rim has the ability to alter a team’s game plans and force them into taking mid-range jumpers they aren’t comfortable with.
The Warriors are probably the team best equipped to handle a strong interior presence, since the offense rarely runs through the paint and most players on the team are capable shooters, but Mozgov will make himself known.
It just takes one monstrous block to swing a game’s momentum, however, and Mozgov will be more than happy to oblige.
If the big man can dominate the paint and possibly create a few fast-break chances with his defense it could be a big boost for the Cavaliers. If not, the Warriors won’t hesitate to jump on the opportunity and take control of the series early on.
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