Do the Memphis Grizzlies Need a Style Change Approaching the 2015-16 NBA Season?
The Memphis Grizzlies have made five straight playoff appearances but only one trip beyond the second round. Hence, their style, centered on playing bruising defense and attacking the inside, is taking a hit.
Writing for Hardwood Paroxysm, Ian Levy compared the Grizzlies to Greek mythology's Sisyphus, who rolled a boulder up a hill only to watch it roll back down.
"The partnership between Zach Randolph and the Grizzlies has been transformational, in both directions, but each failed attempt to be their best selves with Grit-and-Grind makes that particular process more flawed and untenable. In this way, the Grizzlies are actually freed from the Sisyphean myth—they don't actually have to do the same things in the same ways.
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Randolph has been an integral part of their ground-and-pound attack, but the team couldn't reach the top while focusing so intensely on this style.
When they did adjust in the past year with acquisitions of Vince Carter and Jeff Green, it didn't change the outcome. Green couldn't make shots and Carter didn't heat up soon enough to help the Grizzlies match the Golden State Warriors' array of shooting in the Western Conference semifinals.
ESPN.com's Royce Young said, "The Grizzlies take pride in being different, in being stubborn, in being rigid with their style. ... Only one problem: It just can't win."
The skepticism from national voices hasn't changed the mindset within the organization.
Randolph felt confident the Grizzlies can improve on the perimeter by adding a bit, telling The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery, "The organization can change. I think we'll address (the shooting)."
Ultimately, Randolph doesn't think the Grizzlies will change any of its central pieces. To him, it's about augmenting the cookie dough to make it better, not finding a new recipe for a nicer result.
Head coach Dave Joerger shot down the idea of wholesale alterations, telling Tillery, "I don't think that you go start tearing it apart. We don't have a lot of room to make moves anyway. You add a piece here or there. We've got to move the basketball a little bit better and maybe allow our wings to make plays and be comfortable with that."
Coming from Joerger, this is nothing new. From the time he took the helm, he pushed for better ball movement. Opening the offense to empower the wing developed early this season, when they were in the top 10 in three-point shooting through 25 games before slipping to a 22nd-place finish.
Hence, the Grizzlies are focused on improving mostly within their current rotation to bring some balance between the perimeter game and the inside attack while not abandoning their physical style.
Where they get outside shooting without changing faces
Working to improve with the current group seems realistic.
Memphis will be over the salary cap after a likely re-signing of Marc Gasol to a maximum contract upwards of $20 million and guaranteeing a couple of contracts next month.
With Gasol returning, the Grizzlies would have seven years led by the same core. Even if the men on Beale Street perennially bang their heads against the wall and fall short of a title, the long-running trio is appreciable in an era rife with player movement and discord.
Getting closer to a title requires lessening Allen's minutes in favor of a playmaker like Carter or Jordan Adams.
The Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington noted that fitting more three-point shooting around a lineup featuring Tony Allen, who is inactive offensively, and Randolph, who rarely takes threes, is difficult.
Adams made 40 percent of his threes as a rookie after hitting 35.6 percent in his last year at UCLA. Carter, who drained better than 39 percent the two years before joining the Grizzlies last summer, should do somewhat better after hitting a career-worst 29.7 percent from long range this season.
Allen missed 46 games through the past two campaigns. The Grizzlies were reliant on his defense this season with Gasol giving them less support on that end in the first half. They allowed 8.3 more points per 100 possessions with Allen off the floor.
As he sat out Game 5 and most of Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals with a sore right hamstring, the Golden State Warriors scored 115.8 points per 100 possessions.
With Allen turning 34 in January and losing his durability, Memphis must look to transition to a new Grind era. Adams, who can both create for himself and force turnovers, is a worthy candidate.
Conley, a career 37.5 percent three-point shooter, can shoot from downtown and his aching body seems to be telling him he should do it more often. He took a career-high 31.4 percent of his shots from beyond the arc in 2014-15.
The Grizzlies would experience a considerable boost if Conley took it even higher, as he had his highest offensive ratings in months when he shot better than 41 percent from long range.
The luck of health
Saying the Grizzlies could reach the next level if Conley and Courtney Lee stay healthy would be short-sighted, but the team's second-half slump was partly due to injuries for their main outside shooters.
In an interview with CBSSports.com's James Herbert, Lee blamed his slump on a sprained ligament in his right hand suffered Feb. 25 against the Sacramento Kings. During his 20 games from then to April 4, in which he shot 23.8 percent from long range, Memphis went 9-11.
Although Lee was only part of their early-season success, the Grizzlies were 29-11 when he was on fire, shooting 48.6 percent from downtown through Jan. 17.
This is one aspect to which Joerger alluded in terms of letting wings create.
While Conley's health requires patience, Lee's injury was a freak occurrence.
One potential asset
Instead of just adding a difference-making shooter with a salary exception, Memphis absolutely must also move one significant player to expand their horizons.
Even though Green shot 36.2 percent from long range in 45 games for the Grizzlies after being acquired Jan. 12 from the Boston Celtics, he was still a drag offensively. The Grizzlies scored 2.3 more points per 100 with him off the floor. Also, he made more than a third of his long-range attempts only 16 times.
Green is likely to exercise his $9.2 million option for next season, as Tillery reported, which would be outrageous for someone who saps shots away from more efficient players like Gasol and Lee.
The Grizzlies would do better dealing him for one or two role players. He's shot 38 percent in two full seasons, but they shouldn't bet that on the inconsistent soon-to-be 29-year-old.
Getting a more reliable, lower-usage player would make a deeper playoff run a bit easier. A sign-and-trade with the Atlanta Hawks could net Kent Bazemore, who is due $2 million in 2015-16, and DeMarre Carroll, who will be an unrestricted free agent.
Bazemore averaged 5.2 points per game with 36.4 percent from long range, including 43.3 percent before the All-Star break. Carroll, who started his career in Memphis, scored 12.7 per game while hitting 39.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Getting Danny Green, who scored 11.7 points per game while hitting 41.8 percent from downtown for the Spurs in 2014-15, would be ideal.
Conclusion
The Grizzlies have tried and will continue to adjust on the margins.
Carter and Green were part of their bid to expand their outside game. But when their three-point shooting drifted with Carter's struggles, Conley and Lee's injuries and Green's erratic aim, the Grizzlies reverted to the inside game like a club pro who likes his home course too much.
To win a championship, Memphis hopes to boost its outside shooting more than it did last summer when Carter came onboard.
The core isn't about to change, although more threes from Conley would help. As long as Gasol and Randolph are around, the inside attack will remain a significant part of their playoff offense.
Continuity isn't the most exciting thing, and it may not produce a title next year unless everything goes right for the Grizzlies. Improved outside shooting with a couple offseason acquisitions in that area would increase the likelihood, as well as fair health.
Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.
Tom Firme is a Memphis Grizzlies featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @TFirme.
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