Why the Raiders Are One Year Away from Playoff Contention
The Oakland Raiders' 2015 offseason moves have put them in a great position to make a playoff push in 2016.
I know...I know, Raiders fans are tired of hearing the phrase “next year” for what seems to be a sport's eternity, but this year really paves the way for the following season. Rome wasn't built in a day, and one offseason of good fortune rarely brings a team from the basement to the top of the division.
In fact, the Raiders have scored big in two consecutive offseasons, snagging a promising young quarterback, a polished dynamic weapon for their QB, a potential perennial defensive centerpiece and a proven head coach. Those are four ingredients for a playoff contender.
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General manager Reggie McKenzie has brought in a shopping cart of valuable groceries, and now the recipe has to be seasoned and left overnight. By 2016, the Raiders will be cooking.
6-Win Season Ahead
Before we get into the distant future, what should we expect from the 2015 season? Six wins. Yes, another sub .500 season with some struggles. But think in terms of baby steps—walking before you run, and running before you're scoring touchdowns in January.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler has the right idea here:
Before wrecking your TV set in response to another losing season, remember where the Raiders are coming from in recent history: three consecutive seasons of four wins or less.
Six wins with a young, electric offense is a step in the right direction. Patience is a virtue; allow the offense to click before we can say they're already clicking on all cylinders.
Another Year, Another Offense to Install
Keep in mind, Derek Carr will have to learn a whole new offense—his second in two years.
This particular offense under new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave should be exciting. According to Musgrave via Jerry McDonald of the San Jose Mercury News, the new Raiders offense will have Chip Kelly's prints all over it:
"Working as quarterbacks coach with former Oregon coach Chip Kelly and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, Musgrave got a crash course in the up-tempo offense that ranked fifth in the NFL and ran more plays than any team in the league.
Musgrave still believes in running the ball and having an offense impose its will on the defense, but he plans on integrating some of Kelly's offense in Oakland.
"The last 12 months have been terrific for me to see the system in Philadelphia, be a part of it, be a contributor,'' Musgrave said in a conference call Tuesday. "We're going to do quite a bit if it fits the players (in Oakland)."
"
The Raiders have a young core of dynamic offensive skill players who can really frighten opposing defenses if the system fits in Oakland.
It's Carr to Amari Cooper in a variety of schemes. It's Rod Streater attacking from the slot as a deep threat or as a catch-and-run receiver. It's the experience of Michael Crabtree picking apart the weak points in the opposing defense. It's Latavius Murray and Trent Richardson alternating run styles to keep the defense off guard.
What's there not to be excited about on offense as a spectator?
Nonetheless, the installation is step one. Musgrave must find out what works and what doesn't before we can call it a top-10 offense, though it has the potential to reach that expectation rather quickly.
Changing the Losing Culture
Head coach Jack Del Rio has made references to changing the culture of the franchise. He went as far to say he has already accomplished this feat in an interview on Sirius XM NFL Radio.
Though I believe in Del Rio's leadership and the immediate impact he brings to the team, before this transformation is considered complete, it must translate on the field.
One thing that keeps a losing culture down is, well, losing.
The Raiders were the last team to win a game last season. That won't happen this year, but I expect this to be a losing season (sub .500). The goal is to look at this on a macro level. Six wins don't make a giant step up from four, but within the season, how were players competing? Were the losses close? Is there substantial improvement in weak areas?
What's the bigger picture outside the wins and losses?
Too Many Questions on Defense
Speaking of weak areas on the roster, how about that defense? The only way to attack an offense is to do one of three things: stop the run, provide elite coverage in case of a weak pass rush or provide a solid pass rush in case of weak coverage in the secondary.
The Raiders will only do one out of these three things pretty well this season: stifle the run.
Signing Dan Williams, Curtis Lofton and drafting Mario Edwards Jr. were all great moves to improve the Raiders' 22nd-ranked run defense from the previous year, but this is a QB league.
Passing offenses are running amok on teams week to week, and the Raiders' best pass-rusher is a 32-year-old Justin Tuck, who had five sacks in 2014. Oakland's best defender in coverage is a safety, Nate Allen. Travis Carrie may surprise folks this season, and D.J. Hayden has yet to stay healthy enough to perform at a high level. They're both unknowns at this point.
The Raiders are pushing their best defensive player, Khalil Mack, to the line of scrimmage as a part-time pass-rusher. They also are depending heavily on two cornerbacks with a combined 13 NFL starts in the league. I totally believe in Mack supplementing at defensive end on a part-time basis, but the secondary could either become the NFL's biggest surprise or an easy-pass turnstile for elite wide receivers.
There are just too many questions on the defensive side of the ball to put too much faith in the defense improving at the same rate as the offense.
Who's going to be the second-best pass-rusher or the best full-time QB-crusher off the edge? Will Hayden remain healthy and justify himself as a solid first-round pick? Does Lofton regain his status as a solid ("Mike") linebacker after an abysmal tenure with the New Orleans Saints? Just how much will be Mack be used as a DE? Was Edwards' poor play with the Florida State Seminoles just a case of "senioritis," as Del Rio coined it?
Looking Ahead to 2016 Draft
These questions bring me to some possible answers. Looking into the crystal ball for the 2016 draft, the Raiders will have holes to fill at defensive end, offensive tackle and safety in that order of severity.
Why these positions?
Tuck is entering the last year on his deal. Menelik Watson is labeled as a bust by his own coaching staff, and it's evident. Austin Howard is the front-runner to takeover the starting right tackle position, and he struggled for two years at tackle for the New York Jets before moving to guard last season in Oakland. Right tackle will be problematic this year for the Raiders, mark my words, and McKenzie will need to draft high on a tackle to protect Carr going forward.
Finally, the ageless Charles Woodson will retire—a toast to Woodson for an illustrious career.
So, who should the Raiders already have their eyes on for the 2016 draft to fully ensure a playoff return? One man: defensive end Shilique Calhoun.
According to Bleacher Report's Matt Miller via Twitter, Calhoun is up there with top-ranked pass-rushers drafted this year, but he chose to return to the Michigan State Spartans for his senior year:
By the way, he'll bring some attitude to the defense, something the Raiders have been missing for decades. Here's Calhoun body slamming QBs like raggedy stuffed animals, per Bleacher Report's Tyler Brooke.
According to CBS Sports, Calhoun is currently ranked as the third-best DE for the 2016 draft. We all know these projections fluctuate, but he's a name to watch out for when the Raiders are on the clock in the first round.
Imagine a monster like him coming off the edge opposite Mack or Edwards on the defensive line. He would ensure Peyton Manning's retirement at 40 and run Philip Rivers out of the San Diego Chargers all by himself. He should be on McKenzie's big board right now.
As far as offensive tackle is concerned, Oakland picked up Anthony Morris in the seventh round of this year's draft. He should be worth a look to compete with a future high draft pick at the position. Brandian Ross played adequately at safety in 23 starts over the past two seasons, but it wouldn't hurt to draft another prospect in the third round of the next year's draft for depth and competition.
If Hayden or Carrie disappoint in the secondary, expect Keith McGill to get a push into the starting lineup with a veteran joining in the offseason.
Optimism and Answers
The good news concerning the defense is those questions get answered this season. Hayden enters a make-or-break year, and we'll find out where Edwards fits within the defense.
The silver lining here for the Raiders defense is defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. It's his first year in Oakland, but Raiders fans will soon witness the magic he works, especially with his linebackers as he did with the Seattle Seahawks.
Conveniently, the draft has equipped Norton with versatile hybrids Max Valles and Neiron Ball. Under Norton, expect at least one of these players to flourish within a year. The Raiders have a strong linebacker corps already, and Norton will elevate those players to another level by his second year.
The 2015 season may seem a bit cloudy with a chance of a storm or two, but the extended forecast looks bright for their playoff hopes, whether it's in Oakland or Los Angeles.
Playoffs!?!? Playoffs!?!? Yes, I said playoffs.
But for now, let's just win some games.
You can follow Maurice Moton on Twitter for the latest Raiders and NFL chatter.
Advanced statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com.
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