5 Keys for Houston Rockets to Win Western Conference Finals
The Houston Rockets are not good enough to be in the Western Conference Finals. Someone forgot to tell them that, though, and they’re there. While the Golden State Warriors are the heavy favorites, the Rockets won’t care about that. They’re going to come out continuing to believe they can win games they’re not supposed to win.
But this is by far the biggest task they’ve faced. The Warriors are the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, but that just scratches the surface. Per Basketball-Reference.com, their Simple Rating System ranking (which accounts for net rating and strength of schedule) is the seventh-best in NBA history.
The only team with a better SRS than the Warriors to not win the title was the 1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks, who lost to the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers—another one of the six teams ahead of the Warriors.
Furthermore, the Warriors swept the regular-season series. That includes a pair of blowouts on Jan. 17 and 21, when Houston was mostly stocked with a healthy roster.
Were the Rockets to win this series, it would be a monumental upset, but they just pulled off a historic comeback against the Los Angeles Clippers. After losing back-to-back games by 25 points, they won the next three by double digits, becoming just the ninth team to bounce back from a 3-1 deficit.
Critics dismissed their first-round win over the Dallas Mavericks, which was an easy five-game thumping. But beating the Clippers should have gotten them a little more respect.
So, as they say, never say never. Here’s what Houston must do to make that happen.
5. Bring Energy on Defense
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There’s no way to assure you’re going to beat Golden State, but there is a way to guarantee you will lose to it. Don’t hustle. If you don’t, the Warriors will run you out of the gym quicker than you can say fast-break points.
If you want to beat the Warriors, you have to take away their transition and passing, and that takes an active defense.
This season, per NBA.com, the Warriors led the NBA with 20.2 points off turnovers when they won. They also were first in fast-break points with 22.2. However, in losses they scored just 17.3 and 15.0 respectively.
In wins, they averaged 11.1 threes and 28.1 assists. In losses 9.4 and 23.2. That suggests when defenses are hopping, running through off-ball screens and closing out hard on three-point shots, teams can beat Golden State.
But it takes work.
These are areas where Houston has excelled at when it was winning and failed at when it was losing this postseason. When it has lost, its opponent has notched averages of 12.3 threes and 27.3 assists, 21.5 points off turnovers and 20.3 fast-break points.
When the Rockets win, they’ve yielded just 7.1 threes, 20.6 assists, 17.0 points off turnovers and 12.4 fast-break points.
All this means one thing: energy.
Houston must bring it. That's something it didn't do against the Clippers or even the Mavericks. It has to beat the Warriors back on defense, fly around the court and defend the three-point line. If the Rockets accomplish that—and they can—their chances of winning go up significantly.
4. The Bench Has to Score
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The Rockets have one major advantage in this series, and that is their bench. During the playoffs, they have averaged 33.3 points from their second team, while the Warriors have gotten just 23.1. That’s a difference of more than 10 points per game.
The Warriors have an advantage in the starting five, which, at 19.4, had the third-best plus-minus per 48 minutes of any group in the league with 200-plus minutes played in the regular season. That same group is plus-14.8 during the playoffs.
The Rockets’ current assembly of Jason Terry, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard has been their most frequent lineup during the playoffs. They were plus-14.2 per game during the regular season and plus-9.3 in the playoffs. That’s not too shabby, but it’s not as good as the Warriors.
Golden State might have the edge with the starters, but is it a 10-point edge? If the Rockets can use their depth to their advantage, they can offset the Warriors' biggest pro. That means guys like Corey Brewer and whichever of Terrence Jones and Josh Smith isn’t starting are going to have play big. They're going to need to score, rebound and ignite the offense on the fast break.
Or else the Rockets will lose the one advantage they have.
3. Trevor Ariza Must Have an Impact
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Trevor Ariza is about as X-factor as a player can get. He owns the most eye-opening plus-minus stats I’ve ever seen, and it reveals just how much it matters when his presence is felt.
Based on his game log, the Rockets are 44-4 when he registers a positive plus-minus. When it is zero or below, the Rockets are 12-22. That’s a difference between a 91.7 winning percentage and 35.3 percent.
Furthermore, in all eight of the Rockets' wins this postseason, they have outscored their opponents with him on the court. In their four losses, they’ve been outscored.
That’s not just a tangential correlation either. According to HoopStats.com, when he matches or exceeds his counterpart’s production, the Rockets are 39-7. When he is outplayed, they are 17-19.
And surprisingly, his production doesn’t vary much whether they’re winning or losing. He averages 13.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists in wins. He has 11.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists in losses. That’s a slight dip but not enough to explain the extreme difference in winning and losing.
Where things really swing is the consistency of his defense. When the Rockets win, their defensive rating is 95.6 with him on the court. When they lose, it’s 109.1.
Ariza is not the most important player, but he’s the tipping point. He needs to bring it on both ends for the Rockets to have a chance against the Warriors, particularly since Ariza should have an advantage over Harrison Barnes.
He'll be guarding Klay Thompson or Stephen Curry most of the time. He has a length advantage over both of them and has held shooters 5.1 percent below average from 15 feet or farther during the postseason. If he can take one of the two out of the offense, it will make Golden State human and beatable.
2. Dwight Howard Has to Stay Out of Foul Trouble
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Dwight Howard has been proving his doubters wrong this postseason. He’s been physical and dominant. His 13.8 rebounds per game lead the playoffs. He’s averaging 17.2 points and shooting 58.8 percent from the field. And that’s come against two of the most physical bigs in the league, Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan.
But how aggressive he is able to play is having a big impact on whether the Rockets win. He’s getting 18.8 points on 11.6 attempts and 16.1 rebounds in wins. He’s settling for 14.0 points on 9.5 attempts and 9.3 boards in losses.
The same goes for his defense. Per the media version of NBA.com's advanced tracking info, when the Clippers won, they made 70.5 percent of their shots inside the restricted area. When the Rockets won, they held L.A. to 66.3 percent shooting at the rim.
As a result, with Howard on the court, the Clippers' offensive rating was 98.7 when Houston won and 118.2 when Los Angeles won. That’s what we call making an impact.
With one exception, his other numbers are close to the same: He’s getting 4.3 fouls in losses and only 3.5 in wins.
Because he’s not in foul trouble, he’s able to play harder and more aggressively. He’s able to guard the lane and defend the rim. He needs to stay away from ticky-tacky fouls to stay dominant. Howard must stay out of foul trouble for the Rockets to win this series.
1. James Harden Must Outplay Stephen Curry
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Stephen Curry won the MVP, and Harden finished second. Now their teams are squaring off to see who goes to the Finals.
How rare of a treat is it to see the two top contenders for MVP squaring off in the conference finals? It hasn’t happened since the 1980-81 season, when Julius Erving won the award for the Philadelphia 76ers. (Anticipating the flood of “corrections,” LeBron James was third in 2010-11 when Derrick Rose won, not second.)
But, Larry Bird’s Boston Celtics won in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Rockets will be hoping for a similar outcome here.
Thus far in the playoffs, it can be argued that Harden has played just as well if not better than Curry. The MVP is averaging 26.2 points, 6.3 assists and 4.7 rebounds per 36 minutes and has a 58.4 percent true shooting percentage. The runner-up is notching 26.3 points, 7.9 assists and 4.8 rebounds on 61.8 percent true shooting.
And Harden had the superior numbers in the conference semifinals as well, with 24.9 points, 8.0 assists and 5.5 boards per 36 compared to Curry’s 23.2, 6.2 dimes and 4.7 snared misses. Harden also had a 59.3 true shooting percentage compared to Curry’s 55.9 percent.
Curry, however, per RealGM.com, has a slightly higher player efficiency rating for the postseason, 25.9 to 25.7, and a 23.1 to 23.0 edge in the semis.
So the pair has been pretty close to even. However, there’s this strange narrative floating about—even among writers whom I have tremendous respect for—that Curry is playing a significantly better postseason than Harden.
Perhaps the only way for the Beard to prove himself to some is to outplay Curry in this series. He must do that if the Rockets are going to win this anyway.
Whoever accounts for more combined points, scoring and passing plays for all the marbles.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com unless otherwise indicated.
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