Chris Paul or James Harden: Who Is Under Greater Pressure to Win Game 7?

James Harden and Chris Paul will square off in Game 7 of their Western Conference Semifinals series. Both players are the leaders of their respective teams, but which of the two superstars is under more pressure to win?

Depending on which side you take, either Harden's Houston Rockets just pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in the history of elimination games or Paul's Los Angeles Clippers suffered through one of the most epic collapses. Elias tells us, via ESPN.com:

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The Rockets rallied from a 19-point third-quarter deficit to stay alive with a 119-107 Game Six win over the Clippers at Staples Center…. No team had staved off playoff elimination with that large a comeback since the Mavericks, also down 19, stormed back to take a 103-91 win at San Antonio in Game Five of the 2003 Western Conference Finals. The Spurs won at Dallas two days later to take the series and went on to defeat the Nets in the Finals.

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The Rockets’ epic comeback came with Harden on the bench throughout the fourth quarter. The plus-minus numbers for the game didn’t favor Harden at all:

Paul was on the court in the fourth quarter but did little. Per NBA.com, he was just 2-of-7 and the Clippers were minus-25 while he was on the court in the final frame.

Magnifying the loss was the fact that the Clippers had roared to a 3-1 series lead, dominating the Rockets with consecutive 25-plus point blowouts in Games 3 and 4. Now the Clippers need to go on the road and win in the Toyota Center to take a series that was theirs for the taking.

Both Harden and Paul will have pressure to lift their teams to success in the deciding game. Fairly or not, one will be heralded as a hero and the other scapegoated as the reason for failure. So who has the greatest expectation upon him?

Perceptions and Realities

There’s a degree of sophistry to the argument. A player can play great and still lose a game, a fact often overlooked these days.

Bear in mind, though, that what should be and what will be aren’t always the same thing. Overall, both Harden and Paul are playing brilliantly this postseason.

Player name	PTS/G	TRB/G	AST/G	TS%	PER
Chris Paul	21.7	4.4	8.6	0.633	25.9
James Harden	26.3	4.6	8.0	0.625	24.2

Per Basketball-Reference.com, Paul leads all players who have logged 200 minutes in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Harden is tied for third with Stephen Curry. (Paul’s teammate Blake Griffin is second at 25.1.) So, categorizing either player as a “choker” off of a Game 7 performance is unfair, but unfair happens.

Ian Levy wrote for the Cauldron after Game 5 of the Clippers series with the San Antonio Spurs:  

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Paul has played in 58 career playoff games, averaging 20.8 points, 9.5 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 2.3 steals, shooting 48 percent from the field and 38 percent on three-pointers. The list of players who have hit those benchmarks over at least 50 career playoff games has exactly one name on it — Chris Paul.

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Levy, quite fairly, adds:

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Not to put too fine a point on it, but the past playoff losses of Paul’s Clippers (and his Hornets teams’ before that) were collective failures that happened despite Paul’s best efforts. His teams have worked through playoff games relying on contributions from Rasaul [sic] Butler, Julian Wright, Sean Marks, Willie Green, Nick Young and Randy Foye — a veritable who’s who of … who?

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Harden, since coming to Houston, has also had remarkable postseason success—reputation to the contrary notwithstanding. In his three seasons as a starter in the playoffs, he’s averaged 26.4 points, 6.5 assists and 5.2 rebounds.

Players who have averaged 26, 6 and 5 in their playoff careers include only LeBron James and Jerry West.

Yet while Paul has his defenders, Harden seems to have mostly detractors who ignore his success. Tom Ziller of SBNation argues:

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Personality-wise, Howard is a bit similar to Blake Griffin, at least as far as we know. Both show immature streaks and a general goofy aloofness typically not associated with reliable leaders. But Griffin has CP3 to lead the charge and an extraordinarily involved coach in Doc Rivers. Howard has Harden, who continues to inspire little confidence, and Kevin McHale, who exists in a very weird place. The regular-season work of both Harden and McHale were worth heralding loudly, yet neither has met that level in the postseason, especially against a Clippers team that should be exhausted after a first-round war and CP3's hamstring injury.

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Both players thrive individually during the playoffs, yet only Paul’s success is recognized. Harden's seems to be glossed over.

Affections

Neither player will need forgiveness if his team doesn’t win, but there will be more of an inclination to want to forgive Paul.

That may be because Chris Paul is generally more well-liked than Harden. If you’re looking for a moment to define the way the public looks at Paul, think of when Austin Rivers was going off against the Rockets in Game 4 and Paul told Austin’s dad, coach Doc Rivers, “This is one time you can be a dad and not just coach.”

Let your hearts melt, America. Let your hearts melt.

Harden’s signature moment came in the preseason when he told Joaquin Henson of the Philippine Star, “Dwight (Howard) and I are the cornerstones of the Rockets. The rest of the guys are role players or pieces that complete our team. We've lost some pieces and added some pieces. I think we'll be fine next season.”

He got labeled a prima donna. Mike Prada of SBNation decreed:

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On the other hand, the words when presented this way, don't help the growing perception that Houston treats its players like fungible assets instead of human beings. Without knowing it (or maybe he does know) Harden is separating himself and Howard into a higher class and his teammates into a lower one.

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The perception is that Chris Paul is a genuinely nice guy and James Harden is a self-entitled diva. Their respective roles make that an easy narrative to spin.

Paul is a point guard. His job is to set up his teammates and help them score (though he’s also a remarkable and efficient scorer). Harden’s job is a shooting guard. His job is to score first. (But he also does a splendid job of passing.)

Both are balanced, but Paul is viewed more as a passer—the selfless job. Harden is the scorer—the selfish job.

Paul led the league in assist percentage, which vindicates his altruistic image. Harden was fifth in usage percentage. He ran 576 isolation plays. The only player who was even within 200 of that was LeBron James, who had 458. That ties into Harden's egocentric image.

That’s not to say such perceptions are valid or fair—just that they exist. Nor are they universal. Some dislike Paul and some love Harden, but if there were a vote, I have little doubt that Paul would win in a landslide.

In short, Paul is more liked and more likeable. People want him to succeed and would love to see Harden fail.

The Ruling

All this would make it seem that Harden is under more pressure, but the reality is that it takes pressure off him. What is there for him to lose?

If Harden flops (see what I did there?), everyone will just have their opinions confirmed. In a sense, Harden is playing with house money.

Furthermore, the truth is that Harden has actually performed better than Paul in the fourth quarter. Here are the splits for the series.

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	FG%	3P%
Harden	34	37	9	6	52.4	50.0
Paul	21	18	1	4	45.5	50.0

Paul has never been past the second round. In general, the national media has kept letting that slide, though it’s increasingly getting attention. After getting past the Spurs in a legendary series, it was accepted that he was going to catapult his team to the Conference Finals.

After taking a 3-1 series lead over the Rockets, it was a forgone conclusion that he would get there.

Should the Clippers falter again and get sent home—particularly with Paul having a less-than-stellar fourth quarter—he has a long way to fall.

There’s little the national media likes more than toppling someone from the pedestal it’s put someone on. If there is anything more well-liked, it’s the phoenix rising from the ashes story—which, should the Rockets win, Harden would slide into easily.

Furthermore, Harden is just 25 years old. Paul is 29. This is Harden’s first trip as the main man to the second round. It’s Paul’s fourth. There’s a clock ticking on Paul’s career, but not on Harden's.

More pressure is on Paul to win because there is more belief in him, more history to his career and a greater distance to fall. Should Harden fail, it only confirms the narrative; it doesn’t change it. And he has more time left to his career to reverse it.

But all things considered, neither player should catch flak if their team loses. They just lost to a team headed by another great player, and there’s no shame in that.