2015 NBA Draft: Ranking the 7 Teams Under the Most Pressure to Hit Big
No matter how Tuesday's draft lottery unfolds, a number of NBA franchises will be under immense pressure to acquire a future star at Brooklyn's Barclays Center on June 25.
Whichever teams land a top-three pick should have little trouble accomplishing that mission, but there are no guarantees during the draft process. For every Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or John Wall is a cautionary tale such as Greg Oden, Michael Beasley or Derrick Williams, proof that no selection is a surefire bet to pan out.
Further complicating matters is the perceived depth of this year's draft class. As ESPN.com's Chad Ford revealed in a recent online chat, just about every lottery team should expect to snag a projected long-term starter:
"The lottery is pretty deep. Scouts are pretty high. Is there a superstar like LeBron or Kevin Durant here? Not sold on that. But there's 6 maybe 7 guys who could be All-Stars and 13 or 14 that could be good starters in the league. That's a good draft. But after that, the dropoff is pretty stark. It gets pretty shaky in the 20s.
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Accordingly, some franchises will be under far more pressure than others to hit a home run on draft night. Based on projected draft range, roster construction, upcoming free agents and proximity to playoff contention, seven in particular stand out.
Honorable Mention: Indiana Pacers
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Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird set the stage for a tumultuous offseason during his end-of-season press conference. After finishing 24th in offensive rating in 2014-15, Bird told reporters the Pacers will be undergoing a stylistic transformation:
"I was talking to coach earlier; we'd like to play a little faster tempo. And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller. We just got into it, so I don't know what style, but we'd like to change it a little bit. … But I would like to score more points, and to do that, you've got to run.
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In particular, both Bird and head coach Frank Vogel mentioned two-time All-Star center Roy Hibbert as one whose role remains uncertain if he opts into his $15.5 million player option. "I can't guarantee him anything," the Pacers president said.
By firing off such forceful verbal salvos, Bird ramped up the pressure on himself to deliver a vastly different roster this offseason. If the Pacers truly plan on playing faster and smaller, the draft is their first chance at establishing that identity.
At the draft combine, Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein claimed Bird called him a "$100 million player," per Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star, which could foreshadow the Pacers' draft-night plans. Selecting a highly touted center with a late-lottery pick could perhaps entice Hibbert to opt out in fear of a diminished role.
With Indiana all but guaranteed to have the No. 11 selection, a franchise-changing talent such as Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor isn't likely to be taking up residence in Naptown. That doesn't mean the Pacers can afford to strike out entirely with their draft pick, however, as they seek to put their lost 2014-15 campaign behind them.
Other Honorable Mentions: Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves
7. Miami Heat
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Free agency is ultimately what will make or break the Miami Heat's offseason. After giving up two future first-round picks to acquire point guard Goran Dragic, re-signing him will be the team's No. 1 priority, while swingman Luol Deng could further complicate matters by declining his player option to test free agency.
If the Heat don't lose their top-10-protected first-round pick during Tuesday's lottery, however—there's only a 9.1 percent chance of it conveying to Philadelphia—they'll also be under significant pressure to strike gold with it.
Assuming Dragic and Deng both return, the Heat's top six could go to war with just about any team. However, as the 2014-15 campaign illustrated, Miami's lack of depth is too great an obstacle to overcome if injuries rear their ugly head again.
No team serious about competing for a championship should be relying heavily upon guys like James Ennis, Henry Walker and Tyler Johnson as top contributors off the bench. The Heat, who haven't had a top-10 pick since spending the No. 2 overall selection on Michael Beasley in 2008, thus need to make good on this draft.
Unlike Dragic, who hasn't been shy about expressing his desire to re-sign in Miami, Deng appears far more uncertain about his imminent future. While he described the Heat as "top-class" back in mid-April, per Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post, he also said he hadn't given much thought over whether he'd opt out.
Lieser thus believes Miami should target a small forward in the draft, where prospects such as Arizona's Stanley Johnson, Kansas' Kelly Oubre and Wisconsin's Sam Dekker may still be available at No. 10. Miami's top-tier talent should make the team competitive regardless of how its draft pick fares, but Deng opting out could leave the Heat woefully short on reliable wing depth next season.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
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With Kevin Durant's free agency only a year away, no team will be under more pressure this offseason than the Oklahoma City Thunder. In all likelihood, however, the draft will not provide OKC with the type of franchise-changing talent that would entice Durant to re-sign next summer.
Barring a 1-in-55 shot on lottery night, the Thunder will wind up with the No. 14 overall pick. While they could still land a difference-maker at that spot—Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Serge Ibaka were each selected outside of the lottery—the odds of finding such a prospect aren't great.
With Durant's upcoming free agency in mind, Oklahoma City may decide to swing for the fences with its late-lottery pick to convince him it will stop at nothing to win a title. On the other hand, as ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton writes, the Thunder could instead seek to draft a player better suited for a complementary three-and-D role:
"I think it's fair to call a 3-and-D wing to play next to Durant a desire. Andre Roberson is a standout defender but a dreadful outside shooter at this stage of his career, and Anthony Morrow gives the Thunder the shooting they need but is limited defensively. Dion Waiters struggled in both regards after a midseason trade.
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ESPN.com's Chad Ford poured some cold water on that idea, however, writing, "I'm not totally sold that the right 3-and-D guy will be there when they draft—trades or free agency might be the better route given that they're trying to win a title."
If OKC does keep its pick, Kentucky's Devin Booker and Georgia State's R.J. Hunter loom as legitimate possibilities. With 13 roster spots already occupied before factoring in restricted free agent Enes Kanter, however, the Thunder could decide to package their pick with other young players to acquire a potential game-changer on the trade market.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
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If the Philadelphia 76ers don't win the No. 1 pick, they'll need to leave the draft with either Emmanuel Mudiay or D'Angelo Russell. It's that simple.
Their decision to swap Michael Carter-Williams for the Los Angeles Lakers' top-five-protected first-round pick pigeonholed them into this position. While Tony Wroten, Ish Smith and Isaiah Canaan each showed positive flashes at the point occasionally, none possess the look of a franchise-caliber floor general.
Mudiay and Russell each bring something different to the table. The former has the top "mix of physical tools and playmaking upside" of any backcourt prospect, per Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien, while the latter's "penchant for creating and making jumpers and innovative passes makes him an irresistible combo guard."
It's far too early to know which of the two the Sixers would prefer, but failing to acquire either would represent a major setback. The free-agent market isn't exactly rife with top-tier options likely to land in Philadelphia, which puts added pressure on the Sixers leaving the draft with a high-upside prospect at the 1.
"Stability at the point guard position is necessary when building a winning program," CSNPhilly.com's Dei Lynam wrote in late April. "Assuming the Sixers bring in someone new as their starting point guard next fall, it will be the third presumed cornerstone at that position in the past four years."
With Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, the Sixers have their potential frontcourt of the future. To continue moving their rebuild along, they desperately need to find a long-term point guard to pair with their trio of talented bigs.
4. Orlando Magic
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In the three seasons since trading Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Orlando Magic have won 20, 23 and 25 games, respectively. Heading into year four of the post-Dwight era, Orlando will be under serious pressure to begin showing legitimate progress in its ongoing rebuild.
Barring some lottery luck or an unexpected draft-day slide, however, the Magic figure to just miss out on obtaining either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor. With Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton in place, meanwhile, they have little need for either Emmanuel Mudiay or D'Angelo Russell.
That doesn't mean Orlando won't have a shot at a star-caliber player if it stays put at No. 5, however. Even if Towns, Okafor, Russell and Mudiay are gone when the Magic are on the clock, they figure to have their choice between Justise Winslow, Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja or Willie Cauley-Stein.
With Tobias Harris set to become a restricted free agent July 1, drafting Winslow could give Orlando a strong backup plan in case Harris receives an offer sheet too rich for its liking. Porzingis, meanwhile, is a sharpshooting 7-footer who drew significant praise from multiple executives at the NBA Draft Combine, per NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper.
Hezonja would also provide a much-needed infusion of floor spacing for a team that finished among the bottom 10 in both three-pointers made and attempted. And with the Magic having finished ranked 25th in defensive rating, Cauley-Stein could help fortify their frontcourt paired alongside the offense-minded Nikola Vucevic.
No matter how the lottery unfolds, the Magic should have a wealth of palatable options at their disposal. The question thus becomes: Which of these players has the star-caliber potential to help Orlando move past the Howard era once and for all?
3. Sacramento Kings
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Given the rampant coaching upheaval that plagued their 2014-15 campaign, the Sacramento Kings enter the offseason with immense pressure to convince star center DeMarcus Cousins they're headed in the right direction.
In an interview with Michael Lee of the Washington Post back in March, Cousins described the season as "a complete circus" and "a disappointing year." As CBSSports.com's James Herbert wrote at the time, "It's the organization's job to make sure he never deals with a circus like this again."
According to Bill Herenda of CSNBayArea.com, "The Kings want to make a playoff run next season with DeMarcus Cousins as the centerpiece of the franchise." To do so in a brutally competitive Western Conference, however, they'll need to strike gold with their first-round draft pick.
Sacramento enters Tuesday with the sixth-best odds of winning the lottery, but there's roughly a 75 percent chance it ends up with either the No. 6 or No. 7 pick. Regardless of where the Kings land, they'll need to seriously consider using that selection on a frontcourt complement for Cousins.
They were seeking to acquire such a player at the trade deadline, according to CBSSports.com's Ken Berger. "The Kings want to pair Cousins with a front-line player who would fit with his post-up skills—either a stretch 4 or above-the-rim defender," sources told Berger.
Assuming that remains true, Kristaps Porzingis, Willie-Cauley Stein and Myles Turner should all be on Sacramento's draft radar. Continuing to trot out Jason Thompson and/or Derrick Williams at the 4—the latter is a restricted free agent this summer—would all but certainly ensure Cousins' continued disenchantment with the franchise.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
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No team has more at stake during Tuesday's draft lottery than the Los Angeles Lakers. They have a 17.2 percent chance of dropping outside the top five and conveying their first-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, which would be nothing short of an outright disaster.
Fresh off the worst season in franchise history, the Lakers badly need a top-five selection to continue building their post-Kobe Bryant core. According to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News, general manager Mitch Kupchak is under the assumption the 2015-16 season will be Bryant's last.
Accordingly, Bryant can no longer be L.A.'s primary draw in pitches to free agents. Instead, the Lakers will need to tout a handful of promising young players to lure the top-tier stars they're planning on targeting this summer, as Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding reported.
Rising sophomores Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle should help in that regard, assuming the latter recovers from his broken leg without complications. A top-five pick in this year's draft, however, would give the Lakers their best shot at a homegrown star since Andrew Bynum.
With Clarkson, Randle and, say, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell or Karl-Anthony Towns in tow, the Lakers would appear far more appealing to big fish such as Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love. Even if they strike out on the elite free agents, perhaps that young core could entice someone like Greg Monroe.
No matter what happens in the lottery, the Lakers will have the 27th overall pick, courtesy of the Houston Rockets, but that's not likely to produce a superstar. Thus, so long as the potential top-five selection doesn't wind up in Philadelphia's hands, the Lakers will be under immense pressure to play their cards right at the draft.
1. New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks are in a depressingly similar boat to the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason, with two major exceptions.
First, instead of having to worry about their franchise superstar's swan song, Carmelo Anthony is only entering the second year of his five-year, $124 million contract. Like the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, however, Anthony is coming off a season-ending surgery that raises questions about how effective he'll be in 2015-16.
More importantly, the Knicks are even more devoid of young talent than the Lakers, who at least have Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson to tout to free agents. Tim Hardaway Jr., Langston Galloway and Cleanthony Early all appear to be sound rotation players, but none project as potential franchise-caliber building blocks.
With just five players under contract for next season—Anthony, Hardaway, Early, Galloway and Jose Calderon—the Knicks are thus under the most pressure of any franchise to strike gold at the draft. Failing to acquire a future superstar would be a devastating blow following the worst season in franchise history.
Luckily, New York enters the lottery with the second-best odds of winning the No. 1 pick and no chance of falling outside the top five. While dropping to No. 5 could entice team president Phil Jackson to trade the pick, per Marc Berman of the New York Post, the Knicks have to make lemonade out of lemons no matter how the lottery shakes out.
Once free agency kicks off, Jackson is hoping to sign two starters, according to Berman. That goal figures to be far easier to accomplish with one of Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay in the fold.
All statistics via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All salary information via Spotrac. All lottery scenarios via LotteryBucket.com.
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