Trades the Boston Red Sox Should Already Be Thinking About

The 13-15 Boston Red Sox aren't the world-beaters the way many fans had dreamed. Just like the Fenway faithful not-so-secretly feared, the starting pitching has proved to be the Achilles' heel of this team. Rick Porcello leads the staff with a 4.38 ERA after stringing together a pair of strong outings. The rest of his rotation-mates all tout ERAs north of 5.10.

That brings us to trade possibilities that would help bolster this listless club. Despite Mike Napoli's struggles, you won't find a hitter in this rundown to come. The Boston offense will finish among MLB's elite, and the team's unlikely to shop for bats, given its significant offensive investments this past offseason.

While Ben Cherington and John Farrell preach patience with the starting staff, it's clear this group as presently constructed won't take this team anywhere. Management can't say the sky is falling because, (a) it would hurt the bargaining position, and (b) they have to publicly support the beleaguered rotation members to avoid completely shattering their confidence. 

But hoping these starters will magically turn it on is as far-fetched as Joe Kelly's Cy Young proclamations. The Red Sox need pitching help, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and the guys on this ensuing list can fortify what's presently a lackluster group. 

Cole Hamels

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Let the eye rolls commence.

Despite some Red Sox's fans distaste for the rumors, the most talked about trade possibility remains Boston's best hope of landing a big-time starting pitcher. I'm not the only one peddling such logic, as David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News rides by my side.

Murphy reported last week that the Red Sox are still the front-runners to land Cole Hamels, despite a new host of suitors emerging after injuries to their starting pitchers. Even more importantly than a loose label of "front-runner" is the reported decision made by the Philadelphia Phillies to send former manager Charlie Manuel to scout Red Sox prospect Manuel Margot. 

At this point, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro knows Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart and Yoan Moncada are not on the table. The same way the Phillies took a closer look at Boston's farm system back in March, they're now expanding to closely vet other possible pieces in a potential blockbuster trade. When it comes to Plan B options, the upside of 20-year-old Margot is about as good as it gets. 

In an interview with The Boston Globe, Salem manager Carlos Febles compared Margot's offense to Carlos Beltran, his defense to 10-time Gold Glove winner Andruw Jones and said the "true base stealer" has the upside to swipe 50 bags in a season.

Margot is currently batting .289 with a .351 on-base percentage and 11 steals in 22 games in High-A this year. Boston's seventh-ranked prospect also has shown a phenomenal contact rate by striking out just three times in 83 at-bats.

Putting the ball in play consistently to take advantage of his blazing speed and put pressure on the defense is a great sign of maturity for such a young player. In an age when strikeouts have skyrocketed and hitters routinely try to do too much, Margot knows exactly what he is and plays within himself. 

I can rehash the same reasons the Red Sox should go get Hamels that I've been writing since December.

He's a known entity who has excelled in a compact hitter's park his whole career. The three-time All-Star is a workhorse who has eclipsed 200 innings six times and 180-plus innings eight times. He has a career 3.29 ERA, a World Series MVP award and would be under team control through at least 2018. 

Now, the critics will point to Hamels' less than stellar 4.14 ERA in six starts so far in 2015 as proof he's lost it. However, his strikeout rate remains strong (9.2 per nine innings), and he's actually surrendering his lowest amount of hits per nine innings (7.5) since 2011.

What has really hurt Hamels this season has been an unusual spike in walks. He's allowing 4.6 free passes per nine innings in 2015. In Hamels' eight full seasons since 2007, his career-high walks per nine innings was 2.6 (twice). The command has alluded him at times thus far, but that kind of spike would be almost unheard of barring some kind of injury. Chalk it up to a blip in a 162-game season. 

Then there is the case of Hamels' version of Porcello-itis.

The left-hander has surrendered eight home runs in his first six starts of the season. It's worth noting that four of those gopher balls came off the bats of Red Sox players on Opening Day, and seven of the eight homers were allowed in Hamels' first three starts. He's always been a guy who has given up some home runs (in part due to his compact home ballpark), but the walks have made those long balls hurt particularly so far this season.

FanGraphs shows Hamels' velocity is unchanged from recent super-successful campaigns, and when paired with his strikeout rate, there is little cause for concern. Once he stops getting himself into binds by putting guys on base, the ERA should drop to levels we've grown accustomed to over the course of his career.

If he can be had for Margot and a high-end pitching prospect (Brian Johnson, Henry Owens or Eduardo Rodriguez), that's a deal the Red Sox would almost certainly accept. 

Scott Kazmir

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Red Sox fans should remember Scott Kazmir from his early days in a Tampa Bay Devil Rays uniform. He was one of the lone bright spots in the early years of the expansion franchise who was notorious for shining his brightest against Boston. 

The left-hander is 31 years old now and in the final year of his contract with the Oakland A's. Given that his current team is run by well-known penny pinchers, and general manager Billy Beane is always active at the trade deadline, it's very conceivable that Kazmir could become available. This is true especially if the 12-17 A's continue on their current trajectory. 

Kazmir has lost a little maximum velocity from those younger days, but he still averages over 91 mph with his fastball and can touch 95 mph. That's plenty of speed disparity between his mesmerizing changeup, which FanGraphs says averages a tick over 77 mph. That disappearing off-speed pitch, along with his strong command, is where Kazmir makes his living.

Should Boston wish to extend him beyond this season, that makeup is an encouraging sign Kazmir can be successful later in his career, even if his velocity dips more.

Though he got hit hard Wednesday night, the former first-round pick is off to a strong start to the 2015 season. Kazmir has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across six outings. This success is coming on the heels of a 2014 campaign where Kazmir reestablished himself as a high-quality arm. He was an All-Star for the third time in his career a season ago and looked like his old self after being hampered by injuries from 2011-12. 

It is worth noting that while Kazmir threw 190.1 innings last year, the second-highest mark of his career, his results did fade in the second half. He went 4-6 with a 5.42 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break. It was a far cry from his 11-3 mark and 2.32 ERA before the Midsummer Classic. 

While fatigue and injury risk should be taken into account, those risks are likely to make Kazmir easier to obtain than the upper-echelon arms to come on this list.

A three- to four-month rental of an expiring deal that Oakland will be unlikely to afford come 2016 could be had for a middling prospect—particularly given the aforementioned financial constraints the Athletics are always battling. If the A's are out of the playoff hunt, dealing Kazmir would save the frugal club a chunk of his $11 million salary. 

Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman

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The Cincinnati Reds aren't in fire-sale mode yet, but give them a couple of months, and the brutal National League should beat them down.

Even with Adam Wainwright out for the season, it seems unlikely the Reds will catch the St. Louis Cardinals (20-7), one of the best-run franchises in baseball over the past two decades.

That'll leave Cincinnati to battle for one of two Wild Card spots with the Chicago Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the defending World Series champions San Francisco Giants (though it is an even year), the revamped San Diego Padres and the NL East runner-up—either the Washington Nationals or the emerging New York Mets.

The Reds were outclassed by all of those clubs before their thin rotation lost Homer Bailey for the season to a torn UCL. Middling prospects Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Lorenzen are pitching over their heads to this point, and Jason Marquis is prominently involved. The talent level the Reds have is far worse than their 14-13 record.

They'll be one of the dregs of the league when all is said and done. 

That means by the midseason mark, a franchise that Fox Sports reported was trying to dump salary back in December should again be looking to shed payroll. The Reds' best asset to move to save money and simultaneously get young pieces to stock the farm system is Johnny Cueto.

Cueto, who finished second in the 2014 NL Cy Young voting, is a true ace who is set to hit the free-agent market after the season. He's off to another stellar campaign, posting a 2.72 ERA and myopic 0.86 WHIP through six starts.

Unlike Hamels, Cueto's expiring deal will make him cheaper than the other prominent ace on the market. A couple of young second-tier prospects with room to blossom could do the trick.

The other tantalizing piece the Reds can dangle is their electrifying closer Aroldis Chapman. The triple-digit machine is a weapon at the end of games and has struck out 340 batters in 189.1 innings from 2012-14.

The 27-year-old won't become a free agent until 2017, but it makes little sense for the Reds to pay a closer a hefty arbitration price tag in 2016 when they're likely to be a bottom-feeder again. Dealing him this season also can save them a lump of his $8 million salary. 

Chapman is in his prime and possesses rare ability, which means he won't come cheaply. The Atlanta Braves sold off their stud ninth-inning man Craig Kimbrel for a package that was essentially a key prospect (Matt Wisler, No. 34 in Baseball America's Top 100 entering 2015), a serviceable/MLB-ready outfielder (Cameron Maybin) and the 41st overall pick in the draft.

Kimbrel was more desirable, given his three years of team control at the point of acquisition, compared to the one-and-half years the Sox would be guaranteed from Chapman, making the so-called "Cuban Missile" more affordable. 

Though Koji Uehara has looked sharp since coming off the disabled list, he's still 40 years old. Acquiring Chapman would give them their bullpen anchor for years to come, and this current roster would still certainly benefit from his addition. Perhaps the Red Sox go all-in for both Chapman and Cueto and entice the Reds by surrendering a higher-tier prospect in the package like Owens or Rodriguez.

Rafael Betancourt

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It's safe to say that Rafael Betancourt is the least sexy name on this list. He's 40 years old, has never made an All-Star team and is pitching for the first time since 2013 after suffering a full UCL tear in his elbow.

That doesn't exactly scream "must-have trade acquisition."

But while Betancourt was never considered a dominant player, he's served as a highly successful reliever over the course of his 11-plus MLB seasons. The right-hander has amassed a 3.16 ERA over 657 innings out of the bullpen with a 9.5 strikeout per nine innings ratio. His career fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 3.01 and ERA+ of 141 are even more impressive than his standards stats. 

Coming off the dreaded Tommy John surgery, Betancourt has picked up where he left off—excelling in the second half of his career. He has a 1.69 ERA in 10.2 innings this season with an even better FIP (1.15) and an unbelievable 0.56 WHIP, which I quadruple checked because I assumed it had to be wrong. 

Though Betancourt has lost a little life on his fastball from his heyday, FanGraphs has him averaging a shade over 90 mph on heaters in 2015. That's on par with where he was pre-injury in 2013. His fastball placement has been strong enough to still leave hitters in the dust (.080 batting average against).

The former closer also is mixing in his changeup more this season. In 11 appearances, he's featured the pitch 26 times after throwing the changeup just 32 times in 2013 (32 games) and 56 times in 2012 (60 games). Opponents have yet to record a hit against the offering in 2015. 

Betancourt has succeeded in the American League with the Cleveland Indians and then thrived in the best hitters' park there is in Coors Field during his time with the Colorado Rockies. Transitioning to Fenway shouldn't be a concern and strengthening the pen is imperative with so many Red Sox starters struggling to make it through five innings.

Betancourt would upgrade the bullpen spot currently held by Edward Mujica or Robbie Ross. Because of his age and uselessness of a setup man on a terrible Rockies team going nowhere fast, Betancourt should almost certainly be put on the market.

One would assume the price wouldn't be too extravagant, but that could vary depending on how many contenders are searching for a bullpen boost. 

 

Note: Stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All prospect rankings courtesy of BaseballAmerica.com.