Portland Trail Blazers Must Go All-Out to Keep LaMarcus Aldridge in Free Agency
LaMarcus Aldridge isn't the only one with a franchise-defining decision to make this summer.
The Portland Trail Blazers must also settle on a direction for their organization. And they don't have to wait for Aldridge's call to make their own.
But they'd be foolish not to.
The four-time All-Star forward is racing toward an unrestricted-free-agent market that surely won't lack suitors or astronomical offers. As the only NBA player to post at least 23 points and 10 rebounds both this season and last, Aldridge possesses the rare lottery ticket that promises a jackpot prize.
Any and every team with sizable cap space is preparing to chase him. The Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs all have interest, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. The Blazers are obviously in that mix as well, with firsthand knowledge of the dominant force that he can be.
But Portland's roster situation is complicated. Only four players hold fully guaranteed contracts for next season: Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum, C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard.
The Blazers could sacrifice their financial flexibility to keep their core together. They won 64 percent of their games over the last two seasons. Their starting lineup of Lillard, Batum, Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez throttled opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions.
The formula doesn't look anywhere close to broke, so general manager Neil Olshey sees no incentive to fix it.
"Keeping this group together and building off of it is what the goal has always been," Olshey said, per Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune. "This (collective-bargaining agreement) is favorable for teams that want to retain their players. It gives us a home-court advantage in doing so. That's what we hope to accomplish."
If Portland hopes to remain an annual playoff participant and fringe title contender, retaining this group would seemingly ensure that future.
But before reaching that conclusion, the Blazers have to answer one crucial question: Has this collection of players hit its peak?
That's an uncomfortable inquiry for any title hopeful to make, and a particularly unsettling one for Portland. Frankly, this nucleus hasn't spent enough time together to provide a definitive answer.
Last season, the Blazers snapped a two-year playoff drought and promptly dismissed the Houston Rockets in the opening round. But Portland's run came to an unceremonious end during a surgical five-game elimination at the hands of the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs.
The Blazers seemed primed for bigger and better things this time around. Their offense was still lethal, and their defense was suddenly dominant. Once Arron Afflalo arrived at the trade deadline from the Denver Nuggets, Portland's previously problematic bench seemed to transform into an asset.
But an unfortunately familiar foe, the injury bug, brought everything to a halt. Matthews tore his Achilles tendon. Aldridge (torn ligament in thumb) and Batum (torn ligament in wrist) battled nagging ailments. Afflalo strained his shoulder late in the year and never found his form after returning midway through Portland's opening-round series with the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Blazers gritted their way to a win in Game 4, but that's all their battered group could manage.
It isn't easy finding ways for Portland to change its fate.
Lillard still has plenty of room to grow—especially at the defensive end—and rising prospects McCollum and Leonard should be regular contributors next season.
But Aldridge turns 30 in July, meaning his best basketball could be behind him. Matthews is a walking question mark in his attempt to recover from an injury that has spoiled some prolific NBA careers. Lopez is a valuable glue guy but nothing more. Afflalo plans to opt out of his $7.8 million player option, according to Stein.
Keeping this group would be a costly endeavor, especially with Lillard now eligible for his own extension and eyeing nothing "less than the designated max," according to Shams Charania of RealGM.
That might lead the Blazers to consider other options, including those that don't involve heavily pursuing Aldridge.
"Aldridge doesn't owe Portland a thing. But the Blazers don't owe him anything either," wrote John Canzano of The Oregonian. "They get to start over if they'd like. They're unencumbered by bad contracts. They're sitting on some good young players and the luxury of cap space."
Portland has just a shade over $23 million in guaranteed money on next season's books. Lillard, McCollum and Leonard give the franchise a small foundation on which to build. Batum could be included as well, though "there have been rumblings the Blazers could look to move" him this summer, according to CSN's Jabari Young.
If Portland wants to overhaul its roster over the offseason, it will have the buying power to do just that.
| Nicolas Batum | 26 | 9.4 | 20.7 | $12,235,750 |
| Damian Lillard | 24 | 21.0 | 13.1 | $4,236,287 |
| C.J. McCollum | 23 | 6.8 | 13.1 | $2,525,160 |
| Meyers Leonard | 23 | 5.9 | 14.8 | $3,075,880 |
The most recent salary-cap projections set next season's mark at $67.1 million, as Draft Express' Jonathan Givony noted.
The Blazers could have a lot of money to burn.
"Portland could be flush with cap space if Aldridge bolts," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe, "and if it doesn’t sign-and-trade him, the Blazers could fill that space with youngish free agents on long-term deals—contracts that will age well."
The Blazers could get younger and healthier on the wings with someone like Khris Middleton or Jae Crowder. They might try to bolster their frontcourt with Greg Monroe or DeAndre Jordan. Prioritizing youth—Portland will also have the 23rd pick in the upcoming draft—could give this team the upside its current cast might lack.
Some change would be good. The Blazers could use more defenders on the perimeter and extra bodies on the interior. Grabbing a starting-caliber wing is nearly a must, regardless of whether Matthews or Batum (or both) stick around.
But Portland should not close the door on Aldridge's return. If he wants to leave, so be it. But otherwise, the Blazers should do whatever they can to keep their best player around.
For all the talk surrounding his availability, he doesn't seem close to making a decision. He can see the benefits of continuing his career in Rip City but also sounds ready to see what other options he has.
"I've always loved being here, and I've had a great nine years here—that's always going to have more weight than anything else," Aldridge said, via Jason Quick of The Oregonian. "... I'd be lying if I said I didn't want to be wanted, because it would mean you are one of the top players at your position."
Which is precisely what Aldridge is.
Teams reset themselves when they don't have stars. Letting one walk in the hopes of eventually landing another just doesn't make sense.
Before Matthews went down on March 5, the Blazers had the fourth-best winning percentage (.683) and fifth-highest net efficiency rating (plus-5.2 points per 100 possessions). Those are contender-quality marks. And if Aldridge can delay his decline while Lillard, McCollum and Leonard continue their development, this core could still improve.
They don't have to lose Aldridge to gain flexibility. With so many open roster spots, they can grab some extra money elsewhere and plug in the smaller holes around him. Retooling around the Aldridge-Lillard duo could give them something far more substantial than what they could build around the point guard alone.
Portland still needs emergency plans in place, because Aldridge undeniably looks like a flight risk. But until he books his ticket out of town, the Blazers should continue planning their present and near future around him.
They won't find a better option than him this summer and might not come across one for years.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
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