5 Keys for Houston Rockets to Defeat Clippers
After waiting for nearly a week, the Houston Rockets finally know who their opponent will be in the Western Conference semifinals.
Houston took care of business in the first round with a gentlemen's sweep of its rival Dallas Mavericks in five quick games. The Los Angeles Clippers, however, had a much different series with the San Antonio Spurs.
In seven grueling games, the Clips were able to outlast the Spurs thanks to a miraculous game-winning shot by an ailing Chris Paul. They survived a Western shootout against the defending champs, despite enduring two heartbreaking home losses, injuries to CP3 and Glen Davis and a whole lot of DeAndre Jordan free throws.
Considering their options, things could not have realistically gone much better for the Rockets. They get home-court advantage against a tired, banged-up Clippers team after spending the last five days relaxing. L.A. gets one day off before heading down to Texas to face a well-rested Houston squad.
The experts don't seem to think that will matter, with the majority taking the Clips in six. However, the Rockets have been proving people wrong all season, and the second round could be the same. Here are five ways Houston can take down the Clippers and advance to the conference finals.
Dwight Howard and the Interior Battle
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Recent history has not been kind to the Rockets when facing the Clippers. L.A. had won nine out of 10 against Houston heading into this season and tacked on two more blowout wins to make it six in a row against the Rockets.
Houston finally ended the drought by winning the last two matchups and splitting the season series with the Clips. However, the regular-season series doesn't tell the whole story.
First of all, Blake Griffin missed the two middle contests, a win for the home team each time. Secondly, did I mention that Dwight Howard didn't play in a single one of those games?! Howard, who missed half the season with leg injuries, did not face the Clips once this season, yet Houston still managed to split the four games.
In case you didn't watch the first round, Howard is back, and it's kind of a big deal. He dominated the Dallas Mavericks in Round 1, picking up dunks and blocks all over the place like the glory days in Orlando. Howard was a plus-34 in the Dallas series, according to Basketball-Reference.com, best of any player in that matchup.
The Clippers have two very formidable big men in Griffin and Jordan, but they have yet to face Howard down low yet this season, and that deserves some attention.
If Howard continues to produce like he did against the Mavs, the Clips could have a serious issue. In their four games, L.A. won the rebound battle every single time. But with Howard averaging nearly 14 boards per playoff game thus far, that changes everything.
In the first round, Josh Smith and Howard abused the Mavs with the 4-5 pick-and-roll, resulting in countless alley-oops. It won't be that simple in Round 2, with Griffin and Jordan in the way instead of old man Dirk Nowitzki and his four-inch vertical attempting to play defense around the basket.
However, if Dwight can continue to protect the rim, grab offensive boards and intimidate slashers, Houston has a good chance to win this thing. He also needs to make his free throws, which we're about to discuss.
Free Throws
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This series has the potential of being one of the most boring of all time. The Rockets and Clippers are the two-worst free-throw shooting teams in the postseason, and they were both hacked mercilessly in the first round.
Yet here they are, on to the Western semis, despite their glaring weaknesses at the charity stripe.
Last round, Howard shot 46 percent from the line. Josh Smith shot 43 percent. Believe it or not, Clint Capela, who started his career 0-of-15, was the best of all of them at 62 percent, but he had some head-scratching misses too.
Meanwhile, DeAndre Jordan against the Spurs shot just 38 percent on his free throws. Gregg Popovich continuously sent him to the stripe, until Doc Rivers had to ultimately pull his best interior defender from the game.
These teams both clearly have issues that affect their game, but the question is: Do the coaches abuse it or not?
This series could go one of two ways. Kevin McHale and Rivers can take turns hacking each other's players and create the longest playoff games in the history of the association. Or, if we're lucky, the two coaches may mutually agree to avoid the hacking, and we can see a great, close series with some good basketball.
I'm praying for the latter, but don't think it's very likely. The free-throw woes are just too irresistible to ignore. I predict that the first two games will be brutal in terms of hacking, but it will ultimately calm down as the series progresses.
Whatever happens, you can be pretty sure that Howard and Smith will be at the line quite often. Everyone just says these guys should practice their free throws, and it won't be a problem any more, but obviously it's more complicated than that.
These guys have been playing basketball for decades. I'm guessing at some point or another they have practiced shooting free throws, believe it or not. Howard even spent an entire summer with a scientist in an attempt to improve his free shots, to no avail. The fact of the matter is that they struggle from the line, and we will just have to deal with it and hope for the best.
The good news is, the Rockets don't even need to shoot their free throws that well. As long as they shoot better than Jordan, that could put the whole hacking issue to rest.
Chris Paul vs. James Harden (and Trevor Ariza)
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The biggest X-factor in this series is Chris Paul. He is the facilitator for the Clippers on both ends of the floor. However, his health may be an issue early on in the series.
CP3 came up limping in Game 7 against the Spurs, grabbing at his hamstring. He went to the locker room and appeared to be in pain but was still able to finish the game and lead the Clips to victory. Yet Rivers recent comments (via Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated), indicate he's questionable for the opener in Houston on Monday night.
This is potentially colossal for the Rockets. Paul is the leader for L.A., and this team would be nowhere without his heroics throughout the year. Paul played in all 82 games for the Clippers, keeping them afloat during Griffin's elbow injury and finishing off the year strong.
He led them past the defending champs, in quite impressive fashion. Not only did he hit the series-winner, but he also dished out 31 assists, while only committing two turnovers in the final three games. That is unheard of. He won't win, but he's always near the top of the MVP standings and deservedly so.
But, lucky for Houston, there is another MVP candidate in this series, and he goes by "The Beard." James Harden has also shouldered the burden for his team all season long, scoring in bunches and creating offense for others as well.
Harden, however, has had his struggles against the Clips. With Paul bodying him up and Jordan patiently awaiting his arrival at the rim, it's been tough for The Beard to get it going against L.A. In their four games, he averaged 20.0 points on 35.8 percent shooting from the floor. That's certainly not his best.
I expect Rivers to continue to harass Harden throughout the series. He'll crowd him with several bodies and stack the paint to make sure he doesn't get any easy lay-ins like he does so well.
Harden can't get frustrated and get off his game from these tactics. He has to continue to be the offensive catalyst he's been all year long. Even if he's not scoring, he must continue to create for others and get to the line. Fortunately, he'll have Howard to help him out this time.
The Paul vs. Harden matchup will be one for the ages, but it's not the entire picture. Trevor Ariza is equally as important as the Beard in this matchup, considering he will be squaring off with Paul on the defensive side of things.
Ariza typically guards the opposing team's best offensive weapon, and that is undoubtedly CP3 in this series. Ariza's length and lateral quickness could give Paul some trouble, particularly if he's as banged-up as we hear.
Even if he's injured, there's no way Jason Terry or Pablo Prigioni could stay in front of Paul, so it will be up to Ariza to shut down the Clippers offense from the source. It would also be nice if Ariza could hit some more of his threes, but that's a whole different issue.
The Bench Brigade
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While both of these teams have big stars and tremendous starting fives, the Rockets have the clear advantage off the bench.
Not only do the Clippers already have a severe disadvantage in terms of rest, but they also are paper-thin in terms of depth. They really have just a seven-man rotation, with Jamal Crawford and Glen "Big Baby" Davis as the only legitimate contributors in the second unit. Houston should be licking its chops when Austin Rivers or Hedo Turkoglu checks into the game, because those guys don't belong in the NBA playoffs.
I've been saying all year that the bench is the key to Houston's success, but now I mean it more than ever. With the Clippers' awful depth chart, the Rockets should take advantage with their high-powered bench. Josh Smith and Corey Brewer are the key contributors.
Brewer averaged 14.5 points against the Clippers this season. He played a big role in their most recent win in L.A., including a poster dunk over Griffin. In the first round versus Dallas, Brewer exploded in a couple of games helping the Rockets win. He is so dangerous in transition, always out on the break, and he is very sneaky in the passing lanes as well.
Smith did not have nearly as much success against the Clips, averaging just over 11 points per contest as a Rocket. However, Smoove was a huge factor in the Dallas series, terrorizing the Mavs with his scoring, rim protection and most importantly his passing. Smith is a unique tool with his size, athleticism and ability to facilitate.
These two, plus the rest of the bench, can take over this series by dominating against the Clippers' weaker second-stringers. Doc may be forced to play his starters for more minutes, but that won't stop the bench from coming in with fresh legs and pushing the tempo.
Throughout the year, the bench did a great job of playing pressure defense when Harden went to the bench. They aggressively attacked the ball-handler, forcing steals and getting out in transition. However, in the series against the Mavericks, we didn't see that killer instinct on defense.
The Mavs controlled the transition game, which is very uncharacteristic of Houston. In this next round, hopefully the Rockets get back to playing the passing lanes and running the fast break, and it starts with the bench.
Three-Point Shooting
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The Rockets shoot a lot of threes. They shattered the record for most threes attempted and made in a single season, averaging 32.7 attempts and 11.4 makes per game during the regular season.
However, Houston ranked just 14th in three-point percentage at 34.8 percent on the season. Considering they take so many threes, you'd hope the Rockets could shoot at a better percentage.
In the first round, the Rockets stayed consistent, hitting 35 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc. Against the Clippers, that number may need to creep up a bit.
In their losses against L.A. this year, Houston shot on average of just 23 percent from deep. In their wins, they connected on 31 percent, which isn't great either, but it's definitely better.
The Clippers were a top-five team in three-point percentage this season at 37.6 percent, but they struggled in the San Antonio series, dropping down to just 33.3 percent. The Rockets were the best team in the league this year at running teams off the line, holding opponents to just 32.2 percent from deep. The Mavs shot just 31 percent against them in Round 1.
Both of these teams like to shoot the three-ball, so expect it to be a factor in this series. If the Rockets can continue their prowess at defending the three, while getting their own percentages up a bit, they can win this series, three points at a time.
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