Dallas Mavericks Have Big Decisions to Keep Status Quo Next Season
There's no use in sugarcoating what comes next for the Dallas Mavericks. Even as they lick the inevitable wounds of a 4-1 first-round defeat to the Houston Rockets, this summer promises to be an eventful one—replete with a new floor general, decision time for Monta Ellis and the near-certainty that owner Mark Cuban and general manager Donny Nelson attempt a little magic on the free-agency and trade fronts.
This isn't an organization that settles, least of all with franchise face Dirk Nowitzki turning 37 in June. That urgency is compounded by Dallas' failure to advance beyond the first round since its title run in 2011.
"We'll see what happens this summer," Nowitzki told reporters after his team's postseason exit on Tuesday, via ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon. "I know we've got a bunch of free agents again. We'll just see what happens. Mark and Donnie, as always, are going to look to make this franchise better."
There's no rebuilding in the offing, but make no mistake: There will be some serious tweaking. Expectations surround these Mavericks even amid an unyielding Western Conference with ever spryer talent. Injuries may take some of the blame for this opening-round loss, but that's of little consolation to a front office aiming for improvement.
Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons and Devin Harris are the only Mavericks officially under contract next season. Ellis, Raymond Felton and Al-Farouq Aminu all hold player options to remain with the club, and sparingly used Bernard James is owed a modest qualifying offer just under $1.2 million—at which point he'll become a restricted free agent.
| Player | 2015-16 Status or Salary |
| Tyson Chandler | Unrestricted free agent |
| Chandler Parsons | $15,361,500 |
| Rajon Rondo | Unrestricted free agent |
| Monta Ellis | Player option for $8,720,000 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $8,333,334 |
| Devin Harris | $4,053,446 |
| Raymond Felton | Player option for $3,950,313 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $1,100,602 |
| Greg Smith | Unrestricted free agent |
| Richard Jefferson | Unrestricted free agent |
| Charlie Villanueva | Unrestricted free agent |
| Jose Juan Barea | Unrestricted free agent |
| Dwight Powell | Non-guaranteed $845,059 |
| Amar'e Stoudemire | Unrestricted free agent |
| Bernard James | Qualifying offer of $1,181,348 |
Depending on how those player options shake out, the Mavericks should have anywhere between $20.5 million and $33.6 million in available cap space, according to Basketball Insiders. Even if Ellis opts to stick around for a completely reasonable $8.7 million, this team could remain a serious player in the free-agent market.
With several holes to fill this summer, that's a good thing.
There could be one more hole to fill if Ellis walks, which is reportedly a distinct possibility. In March, Basketball Insider's Steve Kyler wrote, "The big wrinkle for the Mavericks is Monta Ellis, as sources close to the situation believe Ellis will opt out of his deal this summer and seek a new multiyear deal based on his current play."
If Dallas re-signs Ellis to a more lucrative deal, that would further encroach on all that cap space, forcing the organization to spend particularly wisely this summer. The Mavericks probably won't find a better all-around scorer (or shooting guard), so Nelson will likely find himself giving Ellis a raise while attempting to save some cash for some of those other needs.
Replacing Rondo
It wasn't exactly fun while it lasted, and it didn't last long. By all accounts—including head coach Rick Carlisle's—the Rajon Rondo experiment is officially over in Dallas.
"In the case of anything, there is risk, but there are risks worth taking," Carlisle told ESPN Dallas 103.3 FM last week, via MacMahon. "That trade [for Rondo] was a risk worth taking. We all agreed on that. Now, we're at a point where, hey, it's time to move on."
Once Rondo exited the postseason stage with a back injury, Carlisle told reporters after Game 2 that he didn't expect the 29-year-old to wear a Mavericks uniform again.
It came as little surprise on the heels of Rondo's painfully average 46 appearances with the team. He averaged just 9.3 points and 6.5 assists during that span while struggling to take command of the Mavericks offense.
Then there was Rondo's one-game suspension in February, the predictable outcome of a public spat on the bench with Carlisle.
"Well, it's an emotional game, and we had a difference of opinion," Carlisle told reporters at the time. "There was an exchange, and then in my mind, it was over."
Clashing personalities (and playing styles) seemingly doomed Rondo's stint with the organization from the near-outset. And now, the organization finds itself right back where it started: in desperate need of a top-shelf floor general.
Unfortunately, the free-agent pickings are pretty slim. Brandon Knight, Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverley will all be restricted free agents, but it's hard to imagine their respective clubs letting them walk. If Goran Dragic opts out of his current deal—as he's likely to do for financial reasons—he would almost certainly be the best available catch.
Whether he's affordable is another matter. Remember, Dallas will look to address multiple needs this summer. Making a pricey splash isn't automatic, and Dragic has given every indication he's happy in Miami, so he might not be on the market for long.
Instead, a point guard-by-committee approach may be the more likely scenario. Dallas could snag some combination of unrestricted free agents like Jeremy Lin, Mo Williams or Aaron Brooks. It could even give Raymond Felton another chance.
One intriguing option is New Orleans Pelicans reserve (and former champion with the Miami Heat) Norris Cole. He's scheduled to become a restricted free agent, and Nelson and Co. could theoretically outbid New Orleans with a relatively modest offer of $6 million or $7 million annually.
San Antonio Spurs backup Cory Joseph will also be a restricted free agent, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him pursue more playing time elsewhere.
The most likely outcomes aren't the sexiest. Dallas' trade assets are limited after separate deals for Rondo and Tyson Chandler, and free agency is unlikely to deliver a big name in the near-term—at least at the point guard spot.
Other positions may be a different story.
The Tyson Chandler Variable
Much depends on whether Chandler re-signs with Dallas when July rolls around. He'd almost certainly command less than the nearly $15 million he made this season, but he would still occupy a significant chunk of payroll.
Chandler has indicated that he'd like to return to the Mavericks. There's just that small matter of arriving at a contract that makes both sides happy. When asked about his future after Tuesday's loss, Chandler told reporters, via MacMahon, "That's up to management and what they decide to do."
While the 32-year-old was predictably solid in his return to the franchise, the Mavericks could investigate other options—Portland Trail Blazers big man LaMarcus Aldridge chief among them. Aldridge is from the Dallas area and could well decide his best title hopes lie in Texas. Earlier this month, ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported via Twitter that the Mavericks (and San Antonio Spurs) believed they "have [a] shot at him."
Dallas hasn't had an abundance of luck with adding superstar talent in recent years, but there's no reason to stop trying now. The Dallas Morning News columnist Kevin Sherrington argued for a measure of urgency this week.
"The Mavs need Aldridge more than they needed [Deron] Williams, more than they needed [Chris] Bosh, more than they needed [Dwight] Howard," Sherrington writes. "They need a player of his caliber now because Dirk Nowitzki's just not the same, as this season indicated and Tuesday echoed."
Should the organization whiff on Aldridge, there's at least one other available big man with a big name.
On Wednesday, MacMahon wrote, "Another potential prize summer target for the Mavs: Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, who multiple sources say has made it clear through back channels that he will be extremely interested in coming to Dallas."
This season's league leader in rebounding and field-goal percentage, Jordan is from the Houston area and played his college ball at Texas A&M. And while it's hard to imagine the 26-year-old abandoning his successful Los Angeles Clippers, going to another playoff-caliber team like the Mavericks is at least conceivable.
As Jordan himself said to USA Today's Sam Amick in March, "the free-agency process is definitely going to be a fun one."
Perhaps less fun for the Mavericks front office. It has some serious work to do, much of which may be less glamorous than introducing prized free agents.
Rounding Out the Roster
Depth was actually something of a strength for this season's Mavericks. The second unit ranked 11th in scoring with 36.1 points per contest, according to HoopsStats.com, and the midseason addition of Amar'e Stoudemire helped compensate for the loss of backup center Brandan Wright via trade.
With guys like J.J. Barea, Devin Harris and Richard Jefferson in the mix, Dallas' rotation largely consisted of veteran role players who knew how to do their jobs. One way or another, 2015-16's roster should be similarly well-built. It may entail some bargain-bin signings or a minor trade, but the supporting cast should be fine.
There's already talk about the Mavericks attempting to reacquire restricted free agent Jae Crowder this summer, and that's precisely the kind of moves we should expect—small, savvy and economical.
There may be more of Barea, Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva, all free agents who played well at times this season. And there may be some new names, glue guys or shooters who complement the team's core playmakers.
One can only speculate and trust that Nelson will do what he's done many times before: assemble a team that can compete.
This season's team was doomed by the Rondo situation and untimely Parsons injury. Last year's team pushed the title-bound Spurs to a seventh game. This is still a good team. No need to panic.
Still, assembling the right personnel is key, and it will involve some change.
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