Dallas Mavericks' Offseason Begins with Point Guard Question
Following yet another first-round exit from the NBA playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks head into the offseason with plenty of personnel decisions to make. Perhaps the biggest question mark remains in the point guard department.
The Mavericks rightfully gambled when they swung a deal for Rajon Rondo in mid-December. Even though their offense was beautiful to behold with Jameer Nelson at the point, he was clearly just a placeholder for whom the Mavs settled in free agency.
Rondo was supposed to be the long-term solution but turned out to be a gigantic mistake. His ball-dominant style of play was always going to be a tough fit in Dallas' free-flowing system, but even his defense wasn't nearly as good as advertised.
It hurts to have given up Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright, Nelson and two draft picks for a Rondo rental, but at least the Mavs aren't trying to salvage any artificial pride. Head coach Rick Carlisle has already indicated that Dallas will cut its losses by letting Rondo walk this summer and start over.
In retrospect, it's perhaps even more frustrating for the Mavericks that Goran Dragic became available a couple of months after the Rondo acquisition. The Slovenian slasher would have been a fantastic fit in Carlisle's system. But the Mavs jumped the gun by refusing to wait until the trade deadline and are now paying the price.
While Dallas looks to fill a major void at point guard, seemingly every playoff team already has a competent floor general in place. The position has a huge contemporary talent pool, but the Mavs still haven't been able to find their long-term guy. It's not like they haven't tried—they've gone after superstar guards to pair with Dirk Nowitzki in the past but have mostly struck out.
When Deron Williams, a Dallas local, hit free agency in the summer of 2012, the Mavs had the cap room ready but failed to convince him to leave the Brooklyn Nets (a blessing in disguise in hindsight). Jason Kidd also changed his mind about staying in Dallas at the same time, and the Mavs have had a different starting point guard every year since then (Darren Collison/Mike James, Jose Calderon and Nelson/Rondo).
The Mavericks need consistency at the point, but this summer's free-agent pool might force them to settle on a placeholder yet again. If Dallas keeps Monta Ellis or adds another solid wing, it wouldn't necessarily need an expensive, ball-dominant slasher.
An ideal candidate would need to be able to shoot, defend and drive. Nelson had two of those qualities, and that's all Dallas needed to light the league on fire offensively.
So what are the Mavericks' options in this summer's free agency?
The Long Shots
The three best free-agent point guards this summer will be looking for hefty pay raises compared to their present contracts and will be very tough to get.
Dragic has a $7.5 million player option for next season but will likely opt out in pursuit of a deal that could pay him somewhere around twice as much annually. He has already indicated via Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post that he would like to stay with the Miami Heat—as long as they reach common ground when negotiations commence.
Since Miami gave up two draft picks and four players to land Dragic, it's highly unlikely they will low-ball him. But if he somehow became available, he'd be the perfect fit.
If Dallas wants to sign any big-time free agent this summer, it would most likely mean letting go of Ellis. Dragic could fill that potential void as a primary ball-handler. He is a terrific finisher and a good enough shooter to stretch the floor during Dirk post-ups.
The other two candidates—Reggie Jackson and Brandon Knight—are both restricted, and their respective teams will likely match any reasonable offer sheet an optimistic team might throw their way. The Detroit Pistons and the Phoenix Suns gave up a bunch of trade assets to land their point guards and are already committed to building around them.
Both players are young enough to be worthy of a hefty financial investment, and Dallas could theoretically throw one of them a massive four-year deal somewhere close to the max, if only to watch Detroit and Phoenix agonize over matching it. It would strip the Mavs of their present flexibility, but a near-max contract this summer won't look nearly as bad when the cap jumps in 2016-17.
Jackson has already proven capable of being a starter by putting up 17.6 points and 9.2 assists per game since arriving in Detroit, while Knight was having the best season of his career with the Milwaukee Bucks before being traded to Phoenix and picking up some injuries.
Any of these three players would work in Dallas. Jackson isn't that good of a shooter and might be the toughest fit, but he is quick and athletic and can get to the free-throw line, unlike Rondo. Knight can be a threat both on and off the ball.
Either way, the chance of anyone out of this trio leaving their respective teams, let alone landing in Dallas, is so slim that the Mavs are unlikely to even go after them.
Cost-Effective Options
Assuming the above-mentioned trio is out of reach, the Mavericks have several interesting names to consider.
Patrick Beverley is perhaps the most fitting choice. He is restricted, and the Houston Rockets would probably like to keep him. Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas will both be eligible for extensions on their rookie scale contracts this summer and will hit restricted free agency in 2016-17 if no agreement is reached. Assuming Houston wants to secure the signatures of its young big men, it remains to be seen how much of a raise they would be willing to offer Beverley.
Something like $5 million per year would be a reasonable price tag for Beverley, a hardworking and pesky defender with three-point range. However, he has shot an abysmal 38.3 percent from the field and can't be relied upon as a pick-and-roll threat or playmaker.
If the Mavs go for Beverley, they'd likely have to look for a shooting guard who can break down the defense next to him, or put the ball in Chandler Parsons' hands a lot more in pick-and-rolls (a very efficient option, by the way). Ellis already does this for the team, and the two wouldn't be a bad match if Dallas keeps its starting 2-guard.
As long as there is enough playmaking in other positions, the Mavericks' offense could still thrive with Beverley, while the perimeter defense would get a healthy boost. But he has already made it clear that he wants to stay in Houston, per Mark Berman of Fox Houston, so the Mavericks would likely have to come up with a crazier offer to even get the Rockets' and Beverley's attention.
The three most interesting free-agent names for the Mavs after Beverley should be Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks and Jeremy Lin. They aren't defensive stoppers by a long shot but would fit in offensively.
Each guy has enough shooting range and off-the-dribble bounce to keep the Mavs' offense flowing. It's unclear what kind of money Lin will look for this summer, but Williams and Brooks should be available for under $5 million per year. Brooks constantly slips under the radar of most teams, although his solid play for the Chicago Bulls could drive up his stock.
The Indiana Pacers' C.J. Watson was also solid this year, shooting 40 percent from deep, and should come at an accessible price tag. Nelson, Will Bynum and Steve Blake could also be available if the Mavs settle on bringing in a placeholder.
Most of the above-mentioned guys are solid backups and not starting-caliber point guards on a roster with championship aspirations. But they could still meet the Mavs' offensive demands for a season or two.
Final Thoughts
The Mavs also have the option of ignoring the need for a starting point guard for a year and working with what they have.
Devin Harris is a better starting option than many of the other free agents. He is a solid two-way player, which can't be said for a lot of the guys Dallas could bring in from the outside.
Harris himself isn't opposed to the notion, via Tim Cato of Mavs Moneyball: "However RC wants to use me, that's how he'll use me. If it's starting, if it's coming off the bench, he'll figure that out, but I think that he likes me coming off the bench, but starting is something I've done my whole career, so I definitely can go back to it."
Carlisle has indeed liked what Harris brings in a bench role, but he'll have to at least consider changing his stance. J.J. Barea's postseason explosion was also encouraging and served as a reminder of just how comfortable he is playing next to Dirk. Re-signing him at a reasonable price and adding a cheap third-string option is certainly on the table.
The Mavericks would save money by sticking with Harris and Barea—money they could throw at someone like Danny Green or another three-and-D wing. Locking in a solid 2-guard and postponing the issue at the point could be the way to go.
Outside of Mike Conley, the 2016-17 free-agency period doesn't look to offer many elite point guard options either. But the league is stacked at the position, and guys become available all the time. Rondo and Dragic were up for grabs this season, and there is a high probability another attractive option will end up on the trade market in the future.
The Mavs could also consider drafting at the position, but considering Carlisle's reluctance to even give big minutes to rookies it's unlikely he'd let one run his team.
Either way, there is no clear answer to Dallas' present point guard conundrum. Adding one will likely be a priority, but the Mavericks should at least consider upgrading on the wing before doing anything else.
All salary information is courtesy of HoopsHype.com, unless otherwise noted.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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