Miami Dolphins: Breaking Down 5 Easiest, 5 Toughest Games on 2015 Schedule
The NFL released the 2015 schedule for all 32 teams on Sunday, and the Miami Dolphins wound up with a schedule that will see them racking up frequent flier miles in the beginning then settling down at home.
While the season's opponents were known after the final day of last year's regular season, this week we learned when the Dolphins will play which teams. The schedule includes a first half that features games against three of the five worst organizations in the NFL, but all of those games are on the road. The Dolphins will play eight of their first 11 games away from South Florida.
The second half of the schedule sees Miami getting a major home-field advantage, as five of its final eight games will be at home. The flip side to that is that four of those final five home games will be against 2014 playoff participants.
Today we're going to break down the schedule by looking at Miami's five easiest and five toughest games of the season. What makes these games so easy or tough? It's not just the opposing team's record, but also how Miami matches up to each team. Miami's past performances against each team factor in as well.
5th Toughest: At Philadelphia (Week 10, November 15, 1p.m., CBS)
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I'm putting this Week 10 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles as the fifth-toughest but not because I think the Eagles are better than the Dolphins.
The truth is, I have a sense about how good the Dolphins will be (better than last year's 8-8). I know the players, the schemes and the latest news.
That doesn't make me special in any way, because if you're looking for predictable teams, the Dolphins are one of them (and in a good way).
As for the Eagles, I don't know what they are.
If they go 4-12, I won't be shocked. If they go 12-4, I won't be shocked. They traded LeSean McCoy (the type of running back that traditionally kills the Dolphins), but they signed DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews.
Also their quarterback situation is less than ideal.
So why is this the fifth toughest game on the schedule? One reason is the location of the game in Philadelphia. The last time Miami won in the City of Brotherly Love, Don Shula was carried off the field after the game in celebration of his 325th victory, which broke George Halas' record for coaching wins.
Another reason is the placement on the schedule. It will be Miami's third consecutive road game, following trips to New England and Buffalo. Even if the Dolphins manage to win both of those games (or more realistically, split them), the potential for a let-down against the Eagles will loom large.
Finally, it's the coaching matchup.
I don't know how I feel about the groceries Chip Kelly bought this offseason, but I can tell you this: he's a better cook than Joe Philbin.
5th Easiest: Vs. New England (Week 17, January 3, 1p.m., CBS)
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Easiest vs. toughest is relative; it's not so much about the opponent but the circumstances surrounding the game.
Case in point: a Miami Dolphins team likely to be fighting for a playoff spot will battle a New England Patriots team that already clinched the AFC East and is trying to stay healthy.
I expect this to be the case come Week 17 when the Patriots visit Miami.
Some other things I'm keeping in mind when I count this game as one of the "easiest" for Miami: the Patriots have lost their last two games in Miami, and traditionally New England doesn't fare well when it travels to Miami in December.
4th Toughest: Vs. Dallas (Week 11, November 22, 1p.m., FOX)
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This is the type of matchup that the Dolphins often lose.
The Cowboys have a tough offensive line filled with maulers, a true alpha-dog receiver in Dez Bryant (who could post big numbers against a team that doesn't play press coverage) and a defense that, in theory, Miami should be able to play well against but, in reality, rarely does.
I'm getting shades of Miami's game against Detroit from last season from this game. The only difference is Ndamukong Suh is on Miami's side.
Suh should neutralize Dallas' tough offensive line (or even destroy it like he did in the 2014 Wild Card game when he had two sacks and five QB hurries), but I have a hard time imagining Brent Grimes effectively covering Bryant.
This is a winnable game for Miami but also their fourth-toughest.
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4th Easiest: Vs. New York Giants (Week 14, December 14, 8:30p.m., ESPN)
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I don't have a lot of reasons to believe in the New York Giants this year.
It's been a while since this team has looked good. Eli Manning has struggled mightily the last two seasons, the Giants' offensive line has been just as bad and the Giants' defense isn't what it used to be.
I don't see much in the way of change this year, unless Odell Beckham Jr. gets cloned a couple of times.
Meanwhile, on the Dolphins' side, it will be their second straight home game. They will have an extra day of rest and a tough defensive line ready to make Manning run for his life.
Matchups-wise, this should be a game Miami wins.
3rd Toughest: At New England (Week 8, October 29, 8:25p.m., CBS/NFL Network)
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This is the tough game against New England.
Yes, they're all tough; the Patriots are the Patriots after all. But remember: the Dolphins match up well against New England, probably better than they do against the other two AFC East teams.
This one is the tough matchup because it's in New England, where the Dolphins haven't won since 2008. Miami's last three trips to New England have been disasters, with the Dolphins losing 41-13 last season, 27-17 in 2013 (in a game Miami led at one point, 17-3) and 28-0 in the 2012 season finale.
Miami will also be coming off a short week in this game, as it's on Thursday night.
This game starts a three-game road trip for the Dolphins, a stretch that will be their toughest of the season and could define 2015.
3rd Easiest: At Jacksonville (Week 2, September 20, 4:05p.m., CBS)
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Last season the Dolphins defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-13, but the game was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Jacksonville's offense gave the game to the Dolphins thanks to three turnovers (two of them pick-sixes) and general ineptitude from rookie quarterback Blake Bortles and the Jaguars' porous offensive line.
The Jaguars defense was very good that day, holding Miami to 326 total yards, sacking Ryan Tannehill three times, forcing an interception and being pests in the pocket all afternoon. Miami's offense only really got going on the ground; the aerial assault was grounded save for a deep-ball connection between Tannehill and Mike Wallace.
Jacksonville's offense doesn't look much better than last year, but their defense absolutely does. Jared Odrick is now Jacksonville's defensive tackle, and he should thrive in Gus Bradley's system next to former Seahawk Chris Clemons and whichever edge-rusher Jacksonville takes in the upcoming draft.
Despite the defensive improvements, this is still a game Miami should win. Weather won't be an advantage for the Jaguars, because the Dolphins will be used to the Florida heat and humidity. Miami's defense has also improved up front, and the Dolphins should have a better offensive showing.
This game might get more interesting than you think, but it will end in a Dolphins win.
2nd Toughest: At Buffalo (Week 9, November 8, 1p.m., CBS)
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If you could build a team specifically to beat the Miami Dolphins, it would look like the Buffalo Bills.
We've seen this the past three seasons since Joe Philbin took over in Miami, as the Bills are 4-2 against the Dolphins in that time, including 3-0 in Buffalo.
Buffalo's defensive line is just as good (and possibly better) than Miami's defensive line, and the Bills will have the right coach in new head man Rex Ryan. (Ryan is only 3-3 against Philbin, but those Jets teams had less talent than the Bills teams of the last three years).
The Dolphins did beef up their run defense by adding Suh, but Buffalo has always found a way to beat Miami on the ground. LeSean McCoy is the type of running back Miami has had problems with in the past, and he will be used early and often in both contests.
Why did I choose the game in Buffalo in Week 9 and not the Week 3 game in Miami for this list? Location and circumstance.
The circumstance that hinders the Dolphins is that it's the second game of a three-game road stretch. The good news is the Dolphins will have extra time to prepare for the game, since it follows their Thursday night game in New England, but that's the only point in their favor.
Mix Buffalo's already-stout defense with a defensive mastermind in Ryan, who has shown the ability to derail Miami's offense even with lesser talent, and you have the recipe for a potential disaster.
Tannehill and Philbin have never won in Buffalo, and they will likely have to in order to make the playoffs.
2nd Easiest: At Tennessee Titans (Week 6, October 18, 1p.m., CBS)
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This entry comes with an asterisk, as it assumes that the report from Michael Gehlken of The San Diego Union-Tribune is true and no trade for Philip Rivers has been discussed between the Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers.
There is no reason Miami shouldn't win this game over the Titans.
You can point to the game being on the road as a possible excuse, but that won't hold water. The Titans are 9-23 over their last two seasons and more likely than not will be starting an inexperienced quarterback.
Tennessee also boasted a defense ranked 29th in the league in points allowed per game last season and had a minus-184 point differential.
If Marcus Mariota is the Titans' draft pick, it won't be enough. Their defense is absolutely atrocious, even with the signing of Brian Orakpo and the hiring of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.
Even if the Philip Rivers trade happens, it won't be enough because of Tennessee's weak defense.
I'll remove the asterisk; this game is a winnable one for the Dolphins.
Toughest Game of the Year: Vs. Baltimore (Week 13, December 6, 1p.m., CBS)
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It feels like the Baltimore Ravens could field a Pop Warner team with Joe Flacco at quarterback and still beat the Dolphins.
This is Miami's toughest game of the year because of the psychological implications. The Dolphins haven't beaten the Ravens since 2007, and in the last two years they lost to Baltimore by losing the battle of attrition.
Baltimore's style of play is physical, and Miami just doesn't do physical as well as it should. The Ravens' receivers tend to be more physical than Miami's corners, Baltimore's offensive line tends to wear down Miami's offensive line and Baltimore's front seven destroys Miami's offensive line.
It's not a talent thing; it's a stylistic thing. Baltimore (like Buffalo) has a style that gives Miami fits. The hope is that will change in 2015, but until we see evidence of that, Miami's two toughest games will be against Buffalo and Baltimore.
Finally, with the Ravens there's a mental block. You can make the case that Baltimore has kept the Dolphins out of the postseason the last two years. Last year's loss came when Miami had every advantage in the playoff race, and 2013's loss to the Ravens was the difference despite the game occurring early in the season.
This should motivate the Dolphins for revenge in 2015, especially with the game coming late in the season. The danger, though, is that it's too big of a psychological hurdle, thus making this the toughest game of the year.
Easiest Game of the Year: At Washington (Week 1, September 13, 1p.m., CBS)
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If you're going to criticize owner Stephen Ross, I might agree with you, depending on the criticism.
But no matter what, I'm going to hit you back with this: he's not Dan Snyder.
Week 1 sees Miami traveling to Washington to take on the NFL's most consistently dysfunctional team.
Yes, Washington is a team that has made the playoffs more recently than the Dolphins, but it is still more dysfunctional. You'd expect Robert Griffin III to be the Redskins' starting quarterback, but it won't be a surprise if they draft Marcus Mariota.
Jay Gruden is the Washington head coach, and the only thing he shares with his brother, Jon, is the facial expressions.
A defense that ranked 29th in points allowed hasn't improved much this offseason, either, and it even lost a key player in Brian Orakpo.
I'm going to be hyperbolic here: this is the Dolphins' best way to start the season if they have to start it on the road. It is their easiest game of the year.
If the Dolphins lose this game, which is a possibility, expect the calls to fire Philbin to be at their loudest. A loss here would be a disaster on the level of losing to the Houston Texans to open the season in 2003.
Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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