Imagining an Injury-Free NBA Playoff Bracket
Somewhere, there's an alternate NBA universe in which the 2014-15 regular season played out without pain.
Injuries didn't crop up to hobble contenders, dash playoff dreams or, more positively, allow unsung heroes to rise in relief.
In that universe, the San Antonio Spurs got a full season of defensive beastmaster Kawhi Leonard, the Oklahoma City Thunder got some version of Russell Westbrook's unhinged brilliance alongside a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka, and the Miami Heat trotted out a terrifying starting unit in a post-trade-deadline surge.
In that universe, we don't have to grapple with the seeming unfairness of luck.
"It's stunning to think the Thunder aren't going to be part of the postseason, a team that seemingly had a spot reserved for the next decade," ESPN.com's Royce Young wrote. "This isn't a team accustomed to scraping by; this has been one of the three most dominant teams over the past five seasons, behind only the Spurs and Miami Heat."
And yet, here we are, heading into a postseason sans Thunder.
We know injuries always define NBA seasons, so pretending they no longer exist is an exercise in fantasy.
But imagining what the upcoming postseason might have looked like without a single malady is too much fun to avoid.
Let's start with some hypothetical standings:
| 1. Atlanta Hawks | 1. Golden State Warriors |
| 2. Chicago Bulls | 2. Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 3. Indiana Pacers | 3. San Antonio Spurs |
| 4. Toronto Raptors | 4. Houston Rockets |
| 5. Cleveland Cavaliers | 5. Los Angeles Clippers |
| 6. Miami Heat | 6. Memphis Grizzlies |
| 7. Washington Wizards | 7. Portland Trail Blazers |
| 8. Milwaukee Bucks | 8. Dallas Mavericks |
A couple of explanations are probably warranted, especially for the notable drops by the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers. Those teams finished second and fourth, respectively, in the real NBA playoff ladders, and maybe it seems strange that they fell (particularly in Portland's case) with better health.
The reason is pretty simple for the Cavs: Indiana and Chicago had massive injury issues this year, and it's not crazy to think they'd both finish ahead of Cleveland with Paul George, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah and all the rest turning in healthy seasons.
Cleveland was mostly fortunate on the injury front this year, and its early-season struggles, which stemmed from uncertain chemistry and a pre-trade lack of talent, would still exist in this scenario.
Put simply, the Bulls won 50 games despite rotten luck, as Chuck Garfien of CSN Chicago pointed out:
It's safe to assume they'd top Cleveland's 53 wins with better fortune.
As for the Toronto Raptors finishing ahead of the Cavs, well, that's tied to the archaic rule that division winners have to be among the top four seeds. Even with the rest of the Atlantic healthy, nobody threatens the mostly mediocre Raps.
The story in the West is similar. Portland benefits when we erase LaMarcus Aldridge's banged-up hands and Wesley Matthews' torn Achilles. But it loses out on the No. 4 seed because the Thunder easily win the Northwest Division.
Furthermore, if guys such as Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley and Tony Allen don't battle health issues this season, their teams, on balance, are more dangerous than the Blazers are. A healthy Blazers team could win 55 or 56 games without surprising anyone (Portland won 51 this year). This is just an educated guess that six similarly healthy teams could do better than that in the West.
Next up, an imaginary playoff bracket:
| No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks | |
| No. 4 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 5 Cleveland Cavaliers | |
| No. 2 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 7 Washington Wizards | |
| No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Miami Heat | |
| No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Dallas Mavericks | |
| No. 4 Houston Rockets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers | |
| No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers | |
| No. 3. San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 6 Memphis Grizzlies |
Drink in those matchups, people.
Biggest Winners
Seeing as injuries were the difference between the lottery and title contention, it's safe to say the magically healthy Thunder came out best in our do-over.
The past several seasons have shown us that whenever Durant, Ibaka and Westbrook are healthy, OKC is as dangerous as any team in the league. In fact, that's something to keep in mind with head coach Scott Brooks' job security reportedly at issue, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. If not for some ill-timed injuries in years past, the Thunder could very well have a championship ring or two by now.
The Spurs also get a bump up the standings on the assumption that a full season of Leonard would make enough of a difference to earn them home-court advantage in the first round.
Leonard played 64 games this past year, but he was only his dominant self over the final 30 or so because it took him some time to get into a rhythm—especially because head coach Gregg Popovich thrust him into a role with much greater offensive responsibility. Uninterrupted, Leonard's season could have been one for the ages.
In the East, the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat dramatically improve their spots, going from the lottery to the middle tier of their bracket.
George gives Indy a superstar, while the Heat enjoy nearly two full months of a lineup that features Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Chris Bosh.
Scary, right?
Biggest Losers
We have to start with the New Orleans Pelicans, who don't make the dance in our hypothetical scenario. To be fair, they suffered injuries of their own this past season, and you'd have to think that full years from Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson would improve their win total.
Remember, in the tiny 13-game sample in which Omer Asik, Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon and Holiday shared the floor, that five-man unit posted a net rating of plus-11.3 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That's an elite figure.
Still, it's hard to see them cracking the 50-win barrier it would take to move past the Dallas Mavericks (who'd have a healthy Chandler Parsons all year) for that No. 8 spot.
The other bummer is the exclusion of the feel-good Boston Celtics, who'd be overtaken by the injury-free Heat and Pacers. The Nets, of course, are gone too.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchups
Out West, the dominant, 67-win Golden State Warriors would face the overlooked, eighth-seeded Mavs in a series that would perfectly mirror the Dubs' "We Believe" upset against Dallas in 2007. The Warriors spoiled Dirk Nowitzki's MVP season with that improbable triumph, and you can just see the narratives that would automatically coalesce if Stephen Curry were to win the award this time around.
The symmetry would be fantastic.
The other No. 1-versus-No. 8 matchup would be no less interesting.
In the East, an Atlanta Hawks team that thrives on ball movement and precise spacing would run up against a Milwaukee Bucks defense uniquely suited to disrupt it.
The Bucks finished second in defensive efficiency, per ESPN, this year by fielding ultra-long lineups that switched more often than any other team. All of the clever curls, back screens, flex actions and cuts the Hawks use to generate space and contort defenses would lose some of their effectiveness.
After all, smart screens aren't worth much when a defense will happily pass off a point guard to a power forward on a switch.
Toss in a healthy Jabari Parker, who adds some scoring punch to Milwaukee's attack, and you've got another potential upset brewing.
And let's not forget Pacers-Heat 3.0, a new twist on an old favorite.
These two teams have met in the conference finals twice in a row, and though two of the key players from those matchups—LeBron James and Lance Stephenson—won't be involved, the rivalry would feel as real as ever.
Plus, imagine what it would be like to see Hassan Whiteside give the Heat the interior presence to challenge Hibbert, not to mention Goran Dragic adding another dynamic pass-and-shoot threat. Best of all, George would have his best chance to finally defeat the troublesome Heat in a playoff series.
Fun stuff.
All of this is wishful thinking. And as deflating as injuries can be, part of what makes every season great is watching how teams adjust to them. We get to see who has what it takes to step up for fallen comrades. We learn which bit players are ready for bigger roles and which coaches have what it takes to adjust on the fly.
That's part of the fun, too.
If everybody were healthy, the potential playoff matchups would be incredible, almost too good to be true.
Which, of course, they are.
