NBA Playoffs 2015: Breaking Down Every Opening-Round Series
The NBA's 82-game marathon has finally given way to its furious four-round sprint to the championship.
After six months of posturing, the playoff field is finally set. All 16 participants know the first step of this delicate dance of survival and advancement.
For some teams, that simply entails handling business in a series that the stat sheet and eye test both say they should win. Fans might be enchanted with dream-big Davids, but history falls in the favor of most menacing Goliaths.
In other series, the separation isn't nearly as significant. A host of similarly skilled teams will wage war in the opening round, highlighted by a sooner-than-expected clash of two championship contenders out West.
That's the Cliffs Notes version of what lies ahead.
But we're digging much deeper into all eight matchups and uncovering all the pertinent information needed to set the first-round stage.
East: No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 8 Brooklyn Nets
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Season Series: Hawks 4-0
The Atlanta Hawks (60-22) destroyed the Brooklyn Nets (38-44) by an average of 17.3 points per game. That's just one of the many statistics that paint this as an incredibly lopsided series.
The Hawks had far better efficiency marks on both sides of the ball. Atlanta holds staggering advantages in talent, depth, execution and chemistry.
Brooklyn has...a bigger payroll.
"I don't think we have any advantages over the Hawks," Nets coach Lionel Hollins said, per Devin Kharpertian of The Brooklyn Game.
Atlanta boasts a balanced offensive attack that incorporates players of all styles. The Hawks have perpetually attacking guards (Jeff Teague, Dennis Schroder), a slew of versatile bigs (headlined by Al Horford and Paul Millsap) and arguably the league's best sniper (Kyle Korver). They string all of those weapons together with a San Antonio Spurs-style penchant for passing.
The Nets, which ranked 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions, will rely on ball control and a methodical offense to cover for their leaky defense. Brook Lopez will be a big part of that, and he closed the season on a high note (23.7 points per game over his final 16 outings). But Brooklyn also needs Deron Williams (38.7 field-goal percentage) and Joe Johnson (35.9 three-point percentage) to bounce back from their down years.
Even if the Nets play well, this could get out of hand quickly. Atlanta won 22 more games than Brooklyn (four different NBA teams failed to win 22 games total). The talent gap between these clubs could rear its head early and often in this series.
East: No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics
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Season Series: Tied 2-2
The Boston Celtics (40-42) are this season's most surprising playoff participants. This is a team that won just 25 games a year ago, then traded both its top scorer (Jeff Green) and distributor (Rajon Rondo) during the first half of this one.
But Boston's coaching wunderkind Brad Stevens puts his players in positions to succeed and fills them with self-confidence. The Celtics play as hard as any team in this field, and that effort pays particular dividends at the defensive end.
However, elbow grease only goes so far. Talent often takes over at this time of year, and the Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) are overloaded with just that.
"Let's be honest. Probably five of the top six players in this series play for the Cavs," wrote ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "The concerns about the Cavs' lack of collective playoff experience are rather mitigated by the largely inexperienced Celtics."
This should be a learning experience for both sides.
It's the first playoff run of LeBron James' second tenure with the Cavs—and the postseason debuts of Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson. A pesky, pressure-free team like the Celtics should make for a good sparring partner, and Boston might hasten the development of its young players with this unexpected playoff appearance.
But the Celtics lack the scoring punch to keep pace with the explosive Cavaliers. The last time these teams played a meaningful game—Boston's two wins came after Cleveland had clinched the second seed—the Cavs rolled to a 31-point victory.
Boston should put up a better fight than that, but not one that actually threatens to send Cleveland to a premature exit.
East: No. 3 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks
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Season Series: Bulls 3-1
Offense enthusiasts, this is not the series for you.
Not once during the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks' four Central Division clashes did either club crack triple digits. The Bulls (50-32) averaged just 92 points in those games, while the Bucks (41-41) went for only 84.8 a night.
If Chicago is healthy—something it hasn't been all season—it should have a better shot to rip the lid off the rim. Between Jimmy Butler's emergence as a 20-points-per-game scorer, Derrick Rose's slippery slashing game, Nikola Mirotic's stretch skills and the high-low craftiness of Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah, the Bulls have as many offensive weapons now as they've had at any point in Tom Thibodeau's coaching tenure.
But Milwaukee has a lanky, athletic, disruptive defense. Only the Golden State Warriors surrendered fewer points per 100 possessions. A paint packed with long-limbed Bucks defenders is a terrifying sight. It's also one the Bulls are likely to see if they can't expand their three-point attack.
"They may be in the top 10 in the league in three-point percentage, but teams don't defend them that way," SB Nation's Mike Prada wrote of the Bulls. "Only Mike Dunleavy and Mirotic really scare opponents from behind the line, and in Mirotic's case, it's more because he's willing to fire away at any time than his actual three-point percentage."
The Bucks have the defenders to hang around, but only if their offense awakens from its second-half slumber. Milwaukee swapped out top scorer Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams at the trade deadline and subsequently posted the fifth-worst offensive rating after the All-Star break.
The young Bucks have their issues, but the Bulls aren't perfect, either. Rose is still finding his way after his third knee surgery in three years, and Noah missed the last two games with a hamstring problem.
Chicago should, and probably will, win this series. But Milwaukee won't go down quietly.
East: No. 4 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 5 Washington Wizards
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Season Series: Raptors 3-0
The Toronto Raptors (49-33) and Washington Wizards (46-36) have more in common than they'd like.
While both follow the lead of an All-Star point guard (Kyle Lowry and John Wall), they also went long stretches without their backcourt mates (Bradley Beal and DeMar DeRozan). Each side started strong—Toronto won 24 of its first 31 games, while Washington held a 31-15 mark on Jan. 27—and struggled in the second half.
They've also been plagued with severe one-way problems, which should make this series an interesting clash in styles.
The fun part will be watching how Washington's fifth-ranked defense handles Toronto's third-ranked offense.
The Raptors get more than 53 points a night from the trio of Lowry, DeRozan and spark plug Louis Williams, and this offense can be a nightmare to defend when Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson hit their outside shots. The Wizards had the league's second-lowest field-goal percentage against, and Wall led all playoff-bound point guards with a 1.95 defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com.
The not-so-exciting side will be seeing which shows signs of competence first: the Wizards' bottom-half offense or the Raptors' bottom-third defense.
Washington doesn't take many threes, despite making a good percentage of them. That can make floor spacing an issue, which hurts Wall's penetration game and the interior play of twin towers Nene and Marcin Gortat. Toronto allowed opponents to shoot 45.9 percent from the field, which ranked 26th overall and worst among playoff teams.
With contrasting strengths and weaknesses, this has potential to be a memorable battle.
West: No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans
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Season Series: Warriors 3-1
The New Orleans Pelicans (45-37) are playing postseason basketball for the first time since 2011. Could they spend their run serving as the Golden State Warriors' sacrificial lamb?
It's certainly possible. The Warriors (67-15) are coming off a historically strong campaign, in which they posted the league's first double-digit point differential (plus-10.1) since Michael Jordan's—and Golden State coach Steve Kerr's—Bulls had a plus-10.8 mark in 1997.
The Dubs dominated on both sides of the ball, pacing the NBA in defensive efficiency and sitting second at the opposite side. Splash siblings Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson led the offensive charge with 45.5 points and 6.7 triples per game combined. The versatile Draymond Green and paint-protecting Andrew Bogut helped this defense hold opponents to a league-worst 42.8 percent shooting.
But the Pelicans, led in all aspects by soaring superstar Anthony Davis, won't back down from this colossal challenge. And they're motivated after feeling overlooked the last time these two squared off (a 103-100 New Orleans win April 7).
"They came out and said it was going to be a scrimmage game," Davis said after his 29-point, 10-rebound, four-block performance in the victory, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "We kind of took that personal."
The Pelicans will need strong showings from Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon and the recently returned Jrue Holiday. New Orleans coach Monty Williams also has to masterfully balance the minutes of defensive-minded center Omer Asik and stretch forward Ryan Anderson.
Golden State has the talent, depth, two-way execution and playoff experience to control this series. But it's going to have its hands full with Davis, and New Orleans might make things interesting if its supporting cast can score consistently.
West: No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks
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Season Series: Rockets 3-1
Before even touching on any basketball reasons, this already looks like a fun series.
There's no love lost between these two Southwest Division rivals. And the Houston Rockets (56-26) and Dallas Mavericks (50-32) don't try to hide their disdain for one another.
When Dwight Howard chose Space City in free agency, Mavs owner Mark Cuban said the center had "made a mistake in judgment," per ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. When the Mavericks lured Chandler Parsons away from the Rockets as a restricted free agent last summer, Houston general manager Daryl Morey called Parsons' pact "one of the most untradeable" contracts he'd ever seen, as reported by MacMahon.
"These teams have battled for every free agent to come on the market since Dwight Howard chose the Rockets in 2012," wrote ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne. "They don't like each other. They don't pretend to like each other, and it shows."
Three of their four regular-season meetings were decided by single-digit outcomes.
Both can pack a mean offensive punch. The Rockets run everything through MVP candidate James Harden, who easily led the club in scoring (27.4 points per game) and assists (7.0). The Mavs have a more balanced attack, getting 15-plus points per game out of Parsons, Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki.
The defensive end shows a much wider split. Houston had the league's sixth-best defensive rating, while Dallas checked in at No. 18. But the Mavs have defended better since plucking Rajon Rondo out of Boston in a mid-December deal, although the point guard has had a tougher time fitting in offensively.
Houston is playing without reserve big man Donatas Motiejunas (back surgery) and starting point guard Patrick Beverley (wrist surgery). Parsons missed the last six games with a nagging knee injury and recently suffered a setback in his recovery.
The Rockets have an advantage on paper, but their injury woes, Harden's spotty playoff resume (42.1 percent shooting in 55 career postseason games) and the genius mind of Mavs coach Rick Carlisle make this one of the toughest matchups to predict.
West: No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio Spurs
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Season Series: Tied 2-2
The Western Conference is insane. That's the only way to explain how the Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) and San Antonio Spurs (55-27) are squaring off in the opening round.
Both teams find themselves among the league's uber-exclusive group of legitimate contenders. According to their point differentials—widely held as one of the best measures of team success—the Clippers and Spurs are the second- and third-best teams in the league, respectively.
"Six months ago, this seemed like a possible conference finals matchup," wrote ESPN.com's J.A. Adande. "Instead, there's a credible threat to end the Spurs' reign of dominance or to prompt a Clippers shakeup after one round of the playoffs."
Both squads come steamrolling into the playoffs. The Clippers closed their campaign with seven straight victories and won 14 of their last 15 games. The Spurs took 21 of their final 24 contests.
San Antonio strictly adheres to the fundamentally sound principles of head coach Gregg Popovich, which have netted the franchise five world titles since 1999. Los Angeles plays a more flashy game, with Chris Paul's superb ball control and the aerial assaults struck by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan making this club a regular on the highlight-reel circuit.
Pop is sure to have some strategic tricks up his sleeve. He might force Doc Rivers' hand if Jordan, who shot an atrocious 39.7 percent at the line this season, can't convert the free-throw attempts that will come early and often. The Spurs are also likely to throw lanky, tenacious defender Kawhi Leonard at Paul if (or maybe when) the point guard becomes a problem.
Los Angeles needs to play with a controlled aggression. This team is a terror in the open floor, especially with sniper J.J. Redick causing constant problems with his Midas touch from deep. But it can get bogged down in the half court if Paul and Griffin can't get their mid-range shots to drop.
There is no margin for error on either side. Both clubs feast on turnovers, and each posted top-10 rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency after the All-Star break.
This is the premier series of the opening round and might be one of the best in this entire postseason.
West: No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies
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Season Series: 4-0 Grizzlies
The playoffs could not have started at a worse time for the Memphis Grizzlies (55-27) and the Portland Trail Blazers (51-31). But their first-round survival hopes were both markedly improved when the two down-trending teams drew one another.
Memphis backed into the postseason with six losses over its last 11 outings. Injuries were the key culprits—Mike Conley missed four games to a sprained right foot, while Tony Allen sat out the last nine with a hamstring problem—but the Grizzlies' struggles date back further than this recent skid.
They carried a 39-14 record into the All-Star break and went just 16-13 the rest of the way. Jeff Green still hasn't looked comfortable since Memphis acquired him from Boston in mid-January. The Grizzlies have been 9.8 points per 100 possessions better when the scoring forward isn't playing.
Portland's demarcation point was easier to spot. The Blazers lost three-and-D swingman and emotional leader Wesley Matthews to a season-ending torn Achilles on March 5 and never recovered.
They were 41-19 on the night Matthews went down. They went 10-12 after that and nosedived from third in defensive efficiency to 24th.
To make matters worse, the Blazers' injury woes don't stop with Matthews. Dorell Wright (broken hand) is out for a while, and Arron Afflalo (shoulder sprain) isn't sure if he'll be ready for the series opener, per Blazers.com's Casey Holdahl. Nicolas Batum (knee) and C.J. McCollum (ankle) have also battled injuries, but they said they'll suit up Sunday, according to Joe Freeman of The Oregonian.
The Blazers' key will be piling up points too quickly for the grit-and-grind Grizzlies to keep pace. Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge will share that responsibility. They averaged a combined 44.4 points per game in the regular season and 55.3 during last year's first-round win over the Rockets.
Memphis needs an effective Conley on defense and an aggressive Marc Gasol at the other end. The Grizzlies did not allow the Blazers to break triple digits in their four regular-season meetings, but if Portland's shooters get hot, Memphis must have a counterpunch.
This should be a nail-biter, although both teams are capable of breaking it open.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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