Why the Boston Red Sox Won't Match the Hype in 2015, Will Miss the Playoffs

The Boston Red Sox made no shortage of noise this offseason. The team signed two of the league’s best hitters in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Then, the team agreed to terms with Rusney Castillo and Yoan Moncada, two of the most highly touted Cuban prospects in recent memory. 

Many, including Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh, have picked Boston to win the AL East. The team’s lineup is undeniably fearsome, and several players—including Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz—figure to rebound from subpar seasons in 2014. 

But Boston fans may have reason to worry. It’s difficult to draw any lasting conclusions this early into the schedule, but for three particular reasons, the Red Sox could easily miss the playoffs entirely. 

Pitching

This is the easiest weakness to point out, and I’ll start with some statistics. First, let’s examine the team’s current starting rotation (minus Steven Wright, Boston’s fifth starter, who has made just two starts in his career):

Player	2014 Games Started	2014 ERA	2014 FIP	2014 WHIP
Clay Buchholz	28	5.34	4.01	1.39
Justin Masterson	25	5.88	4.50	1.63
Rick Porcello	31	3.43	3.67	1.23
Wade Miley	33	4.34	3.98	1.40
AVERAGES	29	4.75	4.04	1.41

Now, let’s compare those numbers with team averages for the 2014 Orioles and Royals, who won the AL East and AL pennant, respectively (for fun, I also included data from the 2013 Red Sox, who won the World Series):

Team	ERA	FIP	WHIP
2014 Orioles	3.69	4.18	1.30
2014 Royals	3.36	3.84	1.23
2013 Red Sox	3.65	3.75	1.25

In short, Boston’s current pitching staff is inadequate. From a statistical perspective, the current Red Sox rotation lags behind that of the 2014 Orioles, 2014 Royals and 2013 Red Sox. There is no evidence to suggest that Boston can win anything with this five-man rotation. 

The AL East

In case you missed it, the AL East is no longer about the Red Sox and Yankees. Since 2010, every team except Toronto has won the division—and that may be about to change. 

Grantland’s Jonah Keri covered this, but Toronto appears primed to make a run. Interestingly, the Blue Jays seem to have the same strengths and weaknesses as Boston. 

The Blue Jays have youth, with seven players younger than 25. They have good hitting and a deep lineup. They have talent on both sides of the ball (24-year-old Drew Hutchison is loaded with potential, while both Jose Reyes and Edward Encarnacion had strong seasons in 2014). And pitching is their weakness (particularly in the bullpen). The Blue Jays will almost certainly be competitive.

Baltimore, meanwhile, won the division last year—and not much has changed about the Orioles. Baltimore has seven guys on the roster who hit at least 10 home runs last year, including Nelson Cruz (who belted 40 homers in 2014). And it returns its entire starting rotation from last year, which—statistically speaking—appears far stronger than Boston’s. 

Tampa Bay has an immensely weaker lineup than Boston or Toronto, but its offensive struggles figure to be at least partially offset by the debut of Stephen Souza. A 25-year-old outfielder, Souza will likely provide a much-needed jolt of power hitting. 

And, despite the departure of longtime ace David Price, Tampa Bay probably has a better five-man rotation than the Red Sox or Blue Jays. When healthy, the Rays plan to start Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, in some order. That staff can compete with anybody. 

So, four AL East teams have won the division in the past five years. Toronto and Boston have comparable lineups. Baltimore won the division last year, is loaded with power hitting and has returned its entire starting rotation. Tampa Bay has better starting pitching than Baltimore. All four teams seem likely to compete. And the New York Yankees are almost never a smart team to dismiss. 

Regardless of its offensive potential, Boston is surrounded by competitive teams. You could tell me now that Boston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay or Toronto had won the 2015 AL East, and I would not be surprised. 

The Unknowns

Lastly, it’s important to recognize that Boston’s season hinges on several risks. 

For one thing, several of the team’s most recognizable hitters—Sandoval, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, among others—may be in decline. Pedroia, for instance, struggled to an uncharacteristically average performance in 2014. That may be anomalous—he’s off to a hot start in 2015— but Pedroia’s OPS, OPS+ and slugging percentage have declined steadily since 2011. 

Ortiz and Sandoval appear to be on similarly negative trends. Like Pedroia, Ortiz had a noticeably below-average 2014, and like Pedroia, that may be anomalous. Ortiz’s performance is difficult to predict, given the ups and downs of his career, but again, his OPS, OPS+ and slugging percentage have methodically declined for three consecutive seasons. And Sandoval is no different. 

What’s more, the Red Sox are hoping for substantial contributions from Castillo, if not Moncada. And neither has ever played in the major leagues. Red Sox fans will undoubtedly remember the much-hyped Daisuke Matsuzaka signing in 2006, which cost the team over $100 million. Matsuzaka performed well, but was never worth the money. 

In sum, the 2015 Red Sox face three major obstacles. First, they have a pitching staff far less impressive than their lineup. The team needs to acquire a legitimate ace if it hopes to succeed in the playoffs. (Luckily, however, Boston is loaded with money, young talent and infielders, all of which make enticing trade chips). 

Second, Boston plays in what figures to be an extremely competitive division. The Red Sox might be able to eke out a division win elsewhere, but the AL East is full of talented teams hoping to expose Boston’s weaknesses. 

And, finally, the Red Sox are hoping for a lot. To a certain extent, this is true of any team. But the Red Sox will rely on major contributions from Ortiz, Pedroia and Sandoval—all of whom may be dwindling—and Castillo, who has never played in the league.

For all of these reasons, Red Sox fans should remain cautious—and hope that the Boston brass can find at least one more starting pitcher. 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.