Los Angeles Lakers Must Protect 2015 1st-Round Draft Pick at All Costs

With just four games left to play in a snakebitten season, the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves with the fourth-worst record in the league, hoping to land a top-five lottery pick on June 25.

The pot of gold is enticing—elite candidates include Karl-Anthony Towns from Kentucky, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow from Duke, D’Angelo Russell from Ohio State and Emmanuel Mudiay, whose season in the Chinese league ended in March.

But despite losing five games in a row, the Lakers won’t know their fate for certain until May 19—the night when representatives from the 14 non-playoff teams will attend the annual bouncing of the Ping-Pong balls.

Due to the top-five-protected nature of the Lakers’ pick and a byzantine NBA selection process, the determination of the draft order can become a little murky.

Under current rules, the team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance to secure the top pick, with odds decreasing proportionately for the remaining teams. After the top three picks are chosen, the rest of the selections descend according to wins and losses. If the Lakers fall below the No. 5 pick, they’ll have to forfeit it to the Philadelphia 76ers, who inherited it in a trade with the Phoenix Suns in February.

As Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times notes, the Lakers currently “have an 82.8 percent chance” of keeping the pick on May 19.

The New York Knicks currently have the worst record in the league at 15-63, with the Minnesota Timberwolves at 16-62. The 76ers are next at 18-61, the Lakers are at 20-58 and the Orlando Magic are at 25-53.

It is conceivable, but not likely, that the 76ers could win the remainder of their games while the Lakers lose out—thus landing the third-worst slot and further improving their lottery chances.

But there is also the inverse scenario—that L.A. could have a bad bounce of the balls and wind up awarding the 76ers an additional lottery pick. This disaster would be too much to bear after another historically bad Lakers season.

It will be the second opportunity in as many years for L.A. to nab a prime draft pick. Last year, the Lakers selected Julius Randle at No. 7. Unfortunately, the power forward out of Kentucky was lost for the season on opening night with a broken leg.

That injury seemed to be a harbinger of things to come—Steve Nash also missed the entire season before ultimately retiring, and Kobe Bryant lasted only 35 games before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.

For a team at or near the bottom of the Western Conference for much of the 2014-15 campaign, the question of the top-five pick that was originally owed to Phoenix as part of the Nash trade in 2012 became an elephant in the corner that absolutely nobody was ignoring.

Yet despite the obvious advantages to an ultimately horrible record, the Lakers have often been competitive in close games, leading to commentary about the delicate art of winning and losing and whether the road to the lottery can be intentionally navigated.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

As Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times recently wrote, there’s a fine line to the “concept of tanking without overtly doing it.” He also points out that Byron Scott—in his first year as head coach of the team—continues to deny any willful losing:

"

When the games start, even if I had in my mind, which I've never had in my mind, to say, 'OK, I want to lose this game,' it's almost impossible for me to think that way. I've never heard a coach say, 'You know I'm going to intentionally go out and really lose this game.' I've never heard a player say, 'We play Philly tonight, so let's lose this game.' It goes against everything that you talk about as far as being a competitor.

"

Be that as it may, a losing season has also given Scott the most obvious of reasons to give his rookies and other young players additional minutes in order to best develop them, as well as giving the front office extended evaluation opportunities.

This has become especially noticeable as of late with Carlos Boozer, Jordan Hill and Ed Davis playing scant minutes, while rookies Jordan Clarkson, Tarik Black and Jabari Brown, plus sophomore Ryan Kelly and D-League call-up Dwight Buycks, get plenty of burn.

If the Lakers’ losing ways result in protecting their top pick, they could wind up with an exciting blend of young talent to surround Bryant with as he returns for his 20th, and presumably final, NBA season.

L.A. also has a late first-round pick obtained from the Houston Rockets in the Jeremy Lin transaction last summer, as well as two possible second-rounders. But that will be small consolation if after falling so far, the team fails to protect its coveted top-five selection.

Fans will be watching the Lakers’ final four games, hoping to enjoy the continuing evolution of Clarkson—the Western Conference Rookie of the Month for March—while still failing at the sound of the buzzer.

Because it’s not the battle, but the war that needs to be won. And the Purple and Gold need all the ammunition they can gather.