Indiana Pacers Need More Than Paul George Magic to Make Playoffs a Reality
The Indiana Pacers have been flirting with a playoff spot since the conclusion of the All-Star break, but an inability to close has left them with no margin for error as Paul George preps to make his return from a gruesome leg fracture Sunday night.
George made the news official Saturday morning with complementary posts on Twitter and Instagram, indicating that he will, in fact, be lacing up his kicks for Sunday's crucial contest with the Miami Heat:
During an NBA season riddled with injuries, it's heart-warming watching George make his comeback seven months after crumbling to the floor at the Thomas & Mack Center.
Having said that, the magical aura surrounding George's return won't be enough to mask some real concerns that have cropped up regarding the Pacers offense as they pursue the Eastern Conference's eighth and final playoff spot.
While George can provide a desperately needed boost in spurts, Pacers president Larry Bird reiterated Saturday that the two-time All-Star won't be thrust back into the featured role he occupied last season when Indiana captured the East's No. 1 seed.
In a press release issued by the Pacers shortly after George's announcement, Bird provided specifics regarding what the team expects from its centerpiece upon his return:
"We're happy to have Paul back in uniform, and this is just another step in his rehabilitation from the injury. He has worked hard to get to this point and still has work to do, but it's a positive step toward what we hope will be a full recovery at some point. His minutes will be limited in games he plays as we evaluate his progress moving forward.
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So if we take it from Bird, this isn't about George providing the Pacers with the firepower they seek with the No. 8 seed on the line. Rather, it's a component of the plan that's been outlined all along.
"It's like a big burden has been lifted," George said, according to The Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner, "but this is just part of the rehab."
As Bird told reporters, per Buckner, George was healthy enough to return earlier, but the team chose to work him back into sufficient game shape before unleashing him on opponents:
If the team was truly greedy in its postseason pursuit, it could have rushed the process. Instead, it took the appropriate steps to ensure George would return when his body would react most positively to a heavy burden.
This was a calculated move that took long-term consequences into account. The timing is friendly, sure, but a limited George isn't going to suddenly push the Pacers over the postseason hump.
If anything is going to provide Indiana with the extra jolt it needs to make a fifth straight playoff appearance, it's going to be an offense that's been enveloped by mediocrity all season long and slip-ups from fellow postseason hopefuls.
But let's start with the road ahead.
| April 5 | vs. Miami Heat | Pacers 2-1 |
| April 8 | at New York Knicks | Pacers 3-0 |
| April 10 | at Detroit Pistons | Pistons 2-1 |
| April 12 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | Thunder 1-0 |
| April 14 | vs. Washington Wizards | Wizards 2-1 |
| April 15 | at Memphis Grizzlies | Grizzlies 1-0 |
Beginning Sunday against the Heat (who will be on the second night of a back-to-back), the Pacers have six games left to make up a 1.5-game deficit that separates them from the No. 8 seed. Then, Indiana will have two winnable games on the road before the supposed final sprint morphs into a terrifying obstacle course littered with imposing playoff contenders.
"Given that they have to face three strong teams—Oklahoma City Thunder, Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies—in their final three games, it remains a long shot," Jared Wade wrote for 8Points9Seconds.com.
As CBS Sports' Matt Moore noted, the Pacers have to capitalize on favorable encounters in the days ahead:
"Pacers got a shot at this thing, but they gotta win the next three. pic.twitter.com/3VQsII99BZ
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) April 4, 2015"
That's also a tough closing slate compared to what the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets and Heat are up against over the next 11 days:
| 4/8 at Detroit | 4/6 vs. Portland | 4/5 at Indiana |
| 4/10 at Cleveland | 4/8 vs. Atlanta | 4/7 vs. Charlotte |
| 4/12 vs. Cleveland | 4/10 vs. Washington | 4/9 vs. Chicago |
| 4/14 vs. Toronto | 4/12 at Milwaukee | 4/11 vs. Toronto |
| 4/15 at Milwaukee | 4/13 vs. Chicago | 4/13 vs. Orlando |
| 4/15 vs. Orlando | 4/15 at Philadelphia |
In addition to getting some help, head coach Frank Vogel will need his starting lineup to have an offensive awakening of epic proportions.
While the Pacers are 12-10 since the All-Star break, Vogel's starting five of George Hill, C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, David West and Roy Hibbert has posted an offensive rating of 96.5 in that span, which has rendered the respectable defensive rating of 100.6 moot.
If that mark spanned the length of the regular season, Indiana would rank above only the Philadelphia 76ers in terms of offensive efficiency.
And it's not like this has been a trend confined to the season's home stretch. Just look at how the team's starters have fared all year:
| Points Per Game | 55.8 | 28 |
| FG% | 43.4% | 27 |
| 3P% | 33.4% | 24 |
To their credit, the Pacers bench ranks tops in scoring at 41.1 points per game, but a lack of first-unit potency has put Indiana in early holes throughout the season. Entering Sunday, the Pacers rank 28th in first-quarter scoring (22.7 points) and 26th with a first-quarter scoring differential of minus-2.2.
That's not a recipe for success against stout competition during the regular season's dying days, much less a formula conducive to prosperous results against lesser foes.
Although George can cure some of those woes in spurts, it's an exercise in unbridled optimism to think he can play the role of savior in a limited capacity. The Pacers offense was 4.4 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor last year, and George Hill is the only regular contributor on this year's Pacers who's touched that number.
C.J. Watson, West and Hibbert have all been net neutral or negative factors for Indiana's offense this season, and Indiana won't budge from its lottery position unless those three emerge as steady high-low options.
With their help, some inspirational contributions from George and fortuitous scheduling shakeouts, the Pacers can pull off a shocker.
Just don't expect George to be the Pacers' miracle worker.
All statistics are current as of April 4 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
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