How Every Projected 2015 NBA Playoff Team Can Shatter Expectations
With fewer than three weeks to go until the NBA's regular season concludes, each playoff team's ceiling has been well-established.
But if tactical and personnel tweaks can be made to each title-contending squad entering the postseason, how could those apparent limits be shattered?
That's what we're here to explore.
Whether it's dinged-up superstars (Derrick Rose and Serge Ibaka, anyone?) returning to full strength in time to make postseason noise, championship hopefuls making analytically driven lineup adjustments or second units lending starting lineups support, each team has a unique way to exceed its perceived potential come mid-April.
To be absolutely clear, this exercise is using the playoff picture that's current as of Saturday, March 28, meaning the Boston Celtics qualified as the Eastern Conference's No. 8 seed, with the Indiana Pacers, Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets residing on the outskirts for the time being.
Atlanta Hawks: Maintaining Defensive Stability
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The Atlanta Hawks really don't have much to fix at this point in the season. They've already clinched the Eastern Conference's top seed and are rolling toward the postseason with arguably the most balanced starting five in the NBA.
But if there's one area worth nitpicking, it's the team's defense. Since Feb. 1, Atlanta's allowed more than 103.1 points per 100 possessions. That's up nearly four points from the team's pre-February rating of 99.5.
That's a mediocre mark, to be sure, but it's no reason to sound alarms at Philips Arena just yet.
"The Hawks' present state is no more dire than the Golden State Warriors' pre-All-Star break recession that turned out to be absolutely nothing," Bleacher Report's Dan Favale wrote. "They have earned the benefit of the doubt after all they've done."
And he's right. Outside of Golden State, Atlanta is the league's most proven commodity, having outscored opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions this season.
Banged up here and there, consider Atlanta's moderate regression on defense nothing more than a case of late-season lethargy that will be cured by an electric postseason atmosphere.
Boston Celtics: Improved 3-Point Shooting
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For the Boston Celtics, simply winning a playoff game may qualify as shattering expectations. After all, they had no business being in the postseason conversation after recording a 20-31 record before the All-Star break.
But in order to validate that sentiment, Brad Stevens' club will first need to stave off the hard-charging Nets, Pacers and Hornets.
Should they eventually achieve the unthinkable, a showdown with the Atlanta Hawks will likely await. That means trying to keep pace from beyond the arc with the league's second-ranked three-point shooting team.
Even in the midst of a prosperous 9-7 March, Boston has dropped to 27th in three-point percentage with a mark of 31.4.
With no go-to spot-up shooter on the wing capable of curling off screens like the brilliant Kyle Korver, Boston could find itself fighting an uphill battle upon entering the postseason party.
Chicago Bulls: A Healthy Derrick Rose
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Derrick Rose hasn't been sensational this season by any means. However, the Chicago Bulls are unquestionably more imposing when he's bringing the ball up the floor and threatening to weave his way through defenders like he's moving downhill on a slalom course.
According to NBA.com, Chicago's offense has been 1.3 points better per 100 possessions with Rose on the floor, which is the difference between ranking as the NBA's seventh- and 11th-best units.
And even though Rose has obliged defenses by stepping back and taking jumpers when defenders have repeatedly slid under screens, he's still one of the league's most efficient isolation scorers. According to Synergy Sports play-type data, Rose ranks in the 91st percentile as an isolation scorer, churning out 1.06 points per possession. That's better than LeBron James, James Harden, Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook.
"Rose has been an erratic shooter all season, just .407 from the field and .287 from the three-point line," CSNChicago.com's Mark Schanowski wrote. "Still, every opposing team is on high alert to try to wall him off with multiple defenders to prevent him from attacking the basket. Rose is the first name that comes up on the scouting report, and he's the main focus of any team's video preparation."
It's going to take a stroke of good fortune in the medical department (which Chicago hasn't been blessed with this season), but with Rose expected to be "cleared for contact next week", according to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson, the Bulls could threaten to make a deep run when the postseason gets underway.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The Continuation of Kevin Love's Offensive Dynamism
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That vaunted Cleveland Cavaliers offense? It's here to stay.
And not just because Kyrie Irving is doing tremendous damage as an isolation wizard while LeBron James orchestrates all things from his perch atop the Rust Belt.
Kevin Love has steadily developed into a more consistent and versatile weapon for the Cavaliers as the season has progressed, which should leave prospective title contenders gasping for breath.
Since Feb. 1, Love is averaging 15.5 points on 45 percent shooting from the field and 42.3 percent shooting from three. But that's hardly all.
As Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney explained, head coach David Blatt is starting to use Love more as a post-up option and tertiary distributor:
"The further evolution of his role, however, gives Love the freedom to do far more than shoot. Cleveland sometimes sits on the fact that its stretch forward is one of the game's best passing bigs—a reduction that undercuts its capacity for fluid offense. Make Love an afterthought and he's more likely to redeem his limited touches for his own scoring opportunities. Play through him more consistently and Love will turn good looks into great ones.
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As if the passing and marksmanship weren't enough, Love is also in the respectable 86th percentile as a post-up scorer, according to Synergy Sports. However, those looks have accounted for just over 24 percent of his possessions, which points to some very real room for improvement.
If Cleveland can continue diversifying Love's offensive portfolio with a balance of post-ups and threes, the rest of the Eastern Conference will be ducking for cover.
Dallas Mavericks: Backcourt Balance
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Consider the breaks pumped on Rajon Rondo's status as a title-contending savior with the Dallas Mavericks.
Since arriving in Dallas prior to the new year, Rondo hasn't been able to lift the Mavs into an idyllic realm of offensive nirvana. In fact, the numbers reveal his presence on the floor has sent the team's efficiency ratings plummeting in a negative direction.
When Rondo occupies the backcourt with Monta Ellis alongside Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler, Dallas is posting a measly offensive rating of 102.4. That's down 4.5 points from the team's fifth-ranked total this season.
But when the Mavericks swap out Rondo for Devin Harris, their offensive rating skyrockets to 116.1, which would be the league's top margin by more than six points.
However, Ellis has been reluctant to peg the team's synergistic struggles on his inability to mesh with Rondo, according to Sports Illustrated's Josh Planos:
"There's no problem (with Rondo). Rondo is a great asset on both ends of the floor. It takes a while for the player to really get adjusted to a new system, new personalities, figuring out where guys want the ball. I think it's going to work out for the best for us once we get over the hump. Take a look at Toronto, you know, (when) Toronto started out they were hot, and they're going through pretty much the same thing that we're going through.
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With a defense that ranks behind the Utah Jazz and Philadelphia 76ers, a spot below the league average, the Mavericks desperately need to find a steady source of efficiency if they want to pull up a first-round upset and down one of the West's front-runners for the title.
Golden State Warriors: Stick with the Status Quo
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What do you get for the team that has everything? How about more of the same.
The Golden State Warriors represent the NBA's gold standard on both ends of the floor, ranking first in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
But it's not just because Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have been lighting up opposing defenses with frightening regularity. As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote, the Warriors' supporting cast gives Steve Kerr lineup options galore, which creates serious matchup problems for the opposition:
"As Golden State gears up for what should be a lengthy playoff run, Curry will continue to be the focus of every opponent's strategy. The problem for potential foes, though, is that taking him out of the game doesn't necessarily weaken the Warriors anymore.
It just reveals another strength.
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Whether it's Draymond Green guarding seemingly every position, Andre Iguodala operating as a second-unit ball-handler or Shaun Livingston working smaller defenders with his back to the basket, Golden State has a plethora of ways to torment the competition.
Combine explosive potential with unmatched consistency, and you get a championship-caliber code that may be unsolvable over the course of a seven-game series.
Houston Rockets: Refined Utilization of Dwight Howard
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Dwight Howard is an absolute terror in the pick-and-roll. He ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to roll-man scoring, generating more than 1.3 points per possession for the Houston Rockets, according to Synergy Sports. Comparatively, he ranks in the 28th percentile as a post-up scorer, barely cracking 0.7 points per possession.
That disparity begs for a more refined approach from Howard on the offensive end.
Fortunately for the Rockets, he appears willing to make a sacrifice as Houston embarks on its title quest with MVP candidate James Harden leading the charge, according to Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver:
"It's not like I haven't done it in the past, but this year is a little different. That sacrifice for me is going to come on the offensive end. It's the thing I saw Wilt [Chamberlain] do when he got his championship with the Lakers [in 1972]. Wilt was known for scoring a lot of points, and when he played for that team that won the championship, he got other people open shots, did whatever he could to make everybody better. He got that trophy. By the time we get to the playoffs and the next couple of years, hopefully we'll get to the point where we'll be able to win a couple championships.
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And as CBS Sports' Matt Moore explained, Howard's physical qualities are best utilized as a roll man.
"He wants to be a post-up player, but he's about 20 times better as a pick and roll weapon," Moore wrote. "He flows naturally in those sets, his size and agility is maximized, and it lets him do what he does best, dunk on fools, rather than trying to finesse his way to a score when he lacks great touch."
Since Houston's defense is already a massive 4.3 points better per 100 possessions with Howard protecting the paint, a more selective application of his skills on offense could represent a major boon for Houston as it pushes toward a Western Conference title.
Los Angeles Clippers: An Uptick in Bench Production
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When the Los Angeles Clippers' starting frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan inevitably encounters foul trouble at times during the postseason, the team's mettle is going to be tested.
Spencer Hawes was brought aboard to operate as the Clippers' third big in Doc Rivers' rotation but has failed to live up to billing as a stretch 5 who could keep the offense afloat with Jordan and/or Griffin out.
Specifically, Los Angeles is a whopping 12 points better per 100 possessions with Hawes off the floor. His inability to consistently make defenses pay from distance (31.9 percent shooting from three) is a major reason why the Clippers bench hasn't been able to pack adequate punch throughout the season.
"Hawes seems uninvolved," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote in February. "He hasn't settled in playing next to a volume shooter like [Jamal] Crawford, and [Doc] Rivers clearly doesn't trust Hawes' plodding defense. 'He's not in a rhythm,' Crawford says. 'But we signed him for a reason, and at some point, you'll see why.'"
And if we move on from Hawes, the Clippers' depth elsewhere isn't exactly encouraging. Austin Rivers, Hedo Turkoglu and Glen Davis all represent pieces of Rivers' second unit, which is pretty terrifying when you consider they may be called upon when the postseason spotlight shines brightest.
Among all benches, the Clippers' unit ranks 21st in scoring and 26th in field-goal percentage. That's the kind of lackluster production that can derail a title chase.
Miami Heat: Dwyane Wade Playing at Full Strength
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With Chris Bosh (blood clots in lung) sidelined for the rest of the season, the Miami Heat can't afford to have Dwyane Wade at anything less than 100 percent.
Wade has been simply sensational over the past five weeks, averaging 21.6 points on 46.4 percent shooting. Most notably, Wade went on a seven-game tear, averaging 28.7 points from March 7 through March 20.
Miami's 33-year-old stalwart has also taken to playing alongside point guard Goran Dragic in a hurry and has been effusive in his praise of the Heat's remodeled spirit.
"This is one of my favorite units, because these guys are fighters," Wade said, according to NBC Sports' Dan Feldman. "We're all fighters in here."
However, questions continue to linger regarding Wade's health after the South Florida Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman reported Wade has "a lot" of fluid building up in his left knee.
Since Miami owns a 2-1 season-series lead on the Cleveland Cavaliers, a first-round showdown between the two clubs could represent the most compelling quarterfinal action the postseason has to offer.
But only if Wade can stay off the injury report.
Memphis Grizzlies: Regaining Offensive Potency
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After ranking 11th in offensive efficiency before the All-Star break, the Memphis Grizzlies have dropped into the bowels of the NBA's analytical dungeon since Feb. 19.
Since the All-Star break, Memphis has operated as the Western Conference's second-worst offense, failing to crack an efficiency rating of 100.
As a result, the Grizzlies have gone 9-9 over their last 18 games, with back-to-back 20-point losses against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors exposing some dents in their title-contending armor.
"We've got to get tough," Zach Randolph said after Memphis' 105-95 loss to the Detroit Pistons on March 17, according to The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery (via ProBasketballTalk.com). "It's not just one thing. It's a lot. We were soft, and we didn't stick to what we were doing. It's a disappointing loss, especially with what we're talking about doing. We've got to do something to fix this."
As things stand, Memphis is in real danger of coughing up the West's No. 2 seed for the first time in months. And while we could chalk this up as merely a late-season malaise, the Grizzlies can't afford to enter the playoffs on a downswing with so many lethal offensive clubs eyeing a conference title.
Milwaukee Bucks: An Offensive Epiphany
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The Milwaukee Bucks are a defensive powerhouse, bested only by the Golden State Warriors on that end all season. The polar opposite is true for Milwaukee's offense, which has dipped into a pit of despair since the All-Star break.
Since swapping out Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams at the trade deadline, Milwaukee's offense has been woeful on the efficiency spectrum. Over the past five weeks, only the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks have purveyed less potent attacks.
While the defense has been brilliant enough to keep Milwaukee in positive territory when it comes to net rating, the offense has suffered from a lack of off-the-dribble creators.
Carter-Williams can probe and dish but continues to remain a liability when it comes to pulling up and calmly knocking down jumpers in half-court sets. That's particularly true beyond the arc, where he's converting under 15 percent of his three-point jumpers since getting shipped to Wisconsin.
Milwaukee's deliberate, grind-it-out style may appreciate at a higher rate when the pace slows and possessions are at a premium in the postseason, but it's hard to envision the Bucks making it out of the first round barring some sort of miraculous offensive epiphany.
Oklahoma City Thunder: A Timely Return from Serge Ibaka
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Breathtaking as Russell Westbrook has been, he can't carry the load solo for the Oklahoma City Thunder if they want to have any shot of upsetting the Golden State Warriors when the Western Conference quarterfinals get underway.
Sans Kevin Durant, the Thunder are just 1-11 against current West playoff qualifiers. That's more than a blip on the radar; it's a trend that can't be ignored.
And with Durant officially out for the remainder of the season, Ibaka's return will be bigger than ever for a battle-tested Oklahoma City squad.
Originally, Ibaka was projected to miss four to six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery on March 17. However, he is hoping to make a return within three to four weeks of his original timetable, according to The Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry.
If he does, the Thunder will be a force to be reckoned with. When Ibaka and Westbrook have shared the floor this year, Oklahoma City has posted a record of 30-19. Additionally, they've outscored opponents by 5.9 points per 100 possessions when running together.
The Thunder could make serious noise even if they enter the first round as considerable underdogs.
Portland Trail Blazers: Rapid Defensive Cohesion
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Wesley Matthews' season-ending Achilles tear wasn't just a major loss for the Portland Trail Blazers offense; it also represented a devastating blow to the team's perimeter defense.
Since Matthews went down, the Blazers' new starting five of Damian Lillard, Arron Afflalo, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez has been torched defensively to the tune of more than 111 points per 100 possessions. For context's sake, that defensive rating is nearly three points worse than the Minnesota Timberwolves' league-worst mark.
And if we swap Matthews in for Afflalo in head coach Terry Stotts' pre-injury alignment, the Blazers were surrendering just 97.1 points per 100 possessions. That's elite.
So in a matter of weeks, Portland's defense has dropped from top-tier to rock bottom. With a scant few regular-season games remaining to establish some crucial chemistry, Portland could be undone early on if it can't lock down on the perimeter.
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker's Jumper
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If the San Antonio Spurs want to defend their title, Tony Parker's mid-range jump shot will be absolutely crucial to keeping their championship aspirations alive.
Case in point: Prior to the All-Star break, Parker was hitting 40.7 percent of his shots between 15 and 19 feet and just 37.7 percent of his attempts between 10 and 14 feet. But since the midseason break, Parker has been dynamite, converting 44.4 percent between 15 and 19 feet and an even 50 percent within the 10-foot range.
"When Parker's in-between game is working, the Spurs are a different team," Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb wrote.
To Babb's assertion, San Antonio has been grooving in March, scoring a league-leading 114.1 points per 100 possessions. As if that wasn't scary enough, the Spurs own the NBA's second-best net rating in that span behind only the Golden State Warriors.
Toronto Raptors: Breaking Down Offensive Barriers
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As Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley put it, "the Toronto Raptors won't get anywhere on the strength of their 22nd-ranked defense. Offensive execution alone will determine this team's fate."
Despite running rampant to the tune of a top-seven offensive rating since the All-Star break, Toronto has been positively putrid on defense. The Raptors have been so bad, in fact, that they're just 7-13 over their last 20 games and are operating with a negative net efficiency rating during that span.
At this point, though, rectifying defensive issues is an unrealistic venture in the vein of Milwaukee undergoing an offensive epiphany.
So in order to exceed expectations, Toronto will need its five double-figure scorers to simply blow past the competition on the strength of offense alone.
One of the key components of that run-and-gun offense is sixth man Lou Williams, whose scoring outbursts have represented one measure of Toronto's success this season. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Raptors are 13-4 when Williams tops 20 points, good for a winning percentage of .765.
When Williams, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan all sync up in conjunction with supplementary scoring down low from Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto can represent an unstoppable force of sorts by masking glaring defensive flaws with gaudy point totals.
Just don't expect that methodology to translate to series victories beyond the first round.
Washington Wizards: Taking a Course in Analytics
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It would be one thing if the Washington Wizards were spurning conventional analytic wisdom because they weren't a good three-point shooting team. But the fact remains that Washington continues to boast one of the league's 10 best groups of perimeter marksmen.
Why, then, are the Wizards attempting more shots (17.3 per game) between 15 and 19 feet than they are from beyond the arc (16.7)?
It's defensible from the standpoint that defenders are content going under screens and forcing John Wall to shoot elbow jumpers (which he's hitting at a respectable clip) as a means to negate his off-the-dribble potency, but it just shouldn't be the team's M.O. on offense.
According to NBA.com, the Wizards are shooting 39.9 percent on long twos, which ranks a couple of spots below the league average. Conversely, Washington's three-point attempts are dropping at a 35.8 percent clip, good for No. 9 overall.
With knockdown spot-up shooters in Rasual Butler, Bradley Beal and Paul Pierce, Washington will need to refine its plan of attack in order to make noise and make up for a lackluster 8-11 showing since the trade deadline.
All statistics are current as of end of play March 28 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless noted otherwise.
