Projecting Detroit Pistons' 2015 Free-Agency Big Board
The Detroit Pistons' playoff chances have all but disappeared, and very soon, they will turn their full attention toward potential roster moves this offseason.
They made two deals at the trade deadline, sending starting small forward Kyle Singler and point guard D.J. Augustin to the Oklahoma City Thunder for high-upside guard Reggie Jackson. The Pistons also moved Jonas Jerebko and Luigi Datome to the Boston Celtics for Tayshaun Prince.
They promptly lost 10 of their next 12 games.
There are rumblings that Jackson should shoulder much of that blame, but he is undoubtedly a talented NBA player; he has averaged 16.1 points, 8.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds in 16 games for the Pistons.
Looking to 2015-16, they should be set with Jackson and Brandon Jennings—who will return from a torn Achilles—running the point.
But small forward is now devoid of both youth and talent, a position where they downgraded from starting 26-year-old Singler to 35-year-old Prince or 35-year-old Caron Butler.
With recent top-10 picks at other positions—Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at shooting guard, Greg Monroe at power forward and Andre Drummond at center—the 3 is the obvious spot to upgrade.
The only way that changes is if Monroe, who will be an unrestricted free agent, leaves for another team. But until that happens, small forward is the direction they must go.
Depending on what happens with the contracts of Monroe and Jackson (a restricted free agent), the Pistons could have as much as $30 million in cap space to sign free agents this summer.
They won't have much shot at top guys at either forward spot (LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love), but there are still several guys who could improve the team and fit in with the current youthful core.
Danny Green, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs
Leonard would be an absolutely perfect fit for Detroit, but there is no reason to believe the San Antonio Spurs would be willing to lose him as a restricted free agent. Signing his running mate, Danny Green, on the wing wouldn't be a bad consolation for the Pistons.
Green has become one of the best three-and-D role players in the NBA over the past four seasons. He is an elite outside shooter, hitting more than 40 percent from the arc for the fourth straight year and is an excellent on-ball and team defender.
He starts at shooting guard in San Antonio next to Leonard, but he actually plays more minutes at the 3 than the 2, according to 82games.com. He also holds opposing small forwards to a lower player efficiency rating (11.6) than he does shooting guards (14.1).
At 6'6" and 215 pounds, he is slightly undersized to play small forward full time, but a 6'10" wingspan helps him to defend bigger players. He'd join another long, but slight wing in KCP, so the two would be interchangeable when switching on defense.
Green will turn 28 in June, making him a couple years older than the other presumed Pistons starters. But he should still be in his prime for the majority of his next contract, and the Pistons could use his veteran leadership and championship experience. Additionally, Green has shown he won't shy away from big moments.
Jackson and Jennings are both ball-dominant guards, each with a usage rate above 27 percent, according to ESPN Insider (subscription required). If Monroe comes back, he also commands a large share of possessions—nearly 23 percent of them.
Green has proven with the Spurs that he does not need the ball to be effective; his usage rate is currently 16.5 percent, and 63.4 percent of his shots come after zero dribbles, according to NBA tracking data.
His unselfishness and three-point prowess would mesh well with the pieces they already have offensively, and a wing defender of his quality is always an asset. The Spurs will want him back, but Detroit could offer Green a deal San Antonio isn't willing to match.
Tobias Harris, F, Orlando Magic
Instead of looking at veteran help for their hole at small forward, the Pistons could instead sign restricted free agent Tobias Harris away from the Orlando Magic.
Harris won't turn 23 until mid-July, putting him close in age to the rest of their core. He is an excellent athlete with terrific length at 6'9" and 235 pounds with a 6'11" wingspan. His physical tools and his age may lead you to believe that he is just scratching the surface of his potential, yet Harris is already averaging 16.9 points and 6.1 rebounds for the Magic.
Whereas Green could play the two wing positions, Harris can get minutes at either forward spot; he could give head coach and team president Stan Van Gundy a stretch-4 option regardless of whether Monroe sticks around.
His shot has improved since he entered the NBA, and he has knocked down 36.6 percent of his threes this season. Regardless of the position he plays, that range would open up the floor for Detroit's point guards and big men.
Harris' restricted free agency complicates his availability. Basketball Insider's Steve Kyler believes that the forward could be had at the right price.
"Harris is believed to be obtainable in free agency even though the Magic plan to issue a qualifying offer and restrict his free agency. ... The belief is that the Magic would match almost anything under $13 million a season; the question is, will Harris get an offer sheet worth more than that number in July and will the Magic budge off their price range?
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That kind of price may seem high for a relatively unproven player, but acquiring someone through restricted free agency requires overpaying. And with the upcoming spike in the salary cap, this would make such a deal much more reasonable.
"The cap could jump from $90 million in 2016-17 to as much as $105 million the year after, per league sources," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote.
The cap is just $63.1 million this season.
If Van Gundy likes Harris' potential fit with the Pistons, he could sign him to a four-year deal in the $14 million to $16 million range per season and hope the Magic don't match.
Harris would already be a major upgrade for them at small forward, and we have only started to see how good he can be.
Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors
Van Gundy's top priority in free agency should be to bring Draymond Green home.
The Michigan State alumnus and Saginaw, Michigan, native is playing a key role for the NBA-leading Golden State Warriors. He spends big minutes at both forward spots and often defends an opponent's best player.
His versatility has made him one of the front-runners for the Defensive Player of the Year award, as ESPN's Ethan Sherwood Strauss outlined:
"This is the crux of Draymond's DPOY case: He's versatile enough to apply defensive pressure to point guards and centers alike. The award typically goes to a center who blocks many shots—one of the few tangible measures of defensive impact. Green might interrupt that tradition as the fulcrum of the season's top-ranked defense and someone who's played more minutes than any player ahead of him in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
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For a Pistons team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, per NBA.com, Green would be a welcome addition.
And as a bonus, he has showed improvement offensively each year he has been in the NBA. His field-goal and three-point percentages are up for the second straight year, to 44.3 and 34.2, respectively.
The Warriors would like to keep Green, but they have more than $75 million already committed next season to Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, David Lee, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Steph Curry. Re-signing Green will put them well into the luxury tax, unless they can find a taker for at least one of those contracts.
Add in Green's interest in returning to Michigan, and there is real potential for the Pistons to sign him.
"If the offer is too rich to match, the chance for Green to return to his beloved home state—where he grew up in Saginaw and played at Michigan State in East Lansing—has long intrigued him, sources said," Yahoo!'s Adrian Wojnarowski wrote. "Green still spends most of his time away from the NBA in Michigan."
Green's game would immediately improve the Pistons roster, and at 25 years old, he fits right in with the players they already have. With the potential for a "hometown hero" storyline in his return to Michigan, nobody makes more sense for the Pistons in free agency than he does.
Hopefully for them, the Warriors balk at Green's price tag, and he can return home.
All records and statistics are accurate through March 26, 2015, and are from NBA.com, unless otherwise noted. All salary information is from ShamSports.com.
Jakub Rudnik covers the Detroit Pistons as a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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