Ranking the NBA's Divisions for the 2014-15 Season
The chatter about the NBA's conference imbalance has been a fine distraction this season, turning critical eyes away from the even more ridiculous (and similarly unfair) construct of divisions.
There are six divisions in the Association, each containing five teams.
The equality stops there.
Some divisions, like the Atlantic, feature just one decent team. Others, like the Southwest, boast five quality clubs. The Pacific is top-heavy, flashy and highly entertaining, while the Central is a plodding slogfest distinguished by a single high-visibility superstar.
We can't do much about realignment, but we can rank the divisions in an effort to highlight the distinct variances in quality and character. To do so, we'll rely on two main factors: how teams have fared outside the confines of their own divisions and simple ratings.
The Simple Rating System (SRS) comes from Basketball-Reference.com, and it smooths out distractions like the unbalanced slate (which favors East teams who only see the West a combined 30 times a year) by factoring in strength of schedule and margin of victory. A positive simple rating is good; negative is bad.
As we'll see, no two divisions are created equal.
6. Atlantic Division
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Division Motto: "We're huge in Canada."
Shining Example: Toronto Raptors
Black Sheep: New York Knicks
Average Simple Rating: -4.2
The worst SRS figure in the league belongs (by a mile) to the Atlantic Division, which boasts just one team, the Toronto Raptors, with a positive rating. Toronto's plus-2.78 is the lowest number of any division leader and ranks just 11th in the league overall.
Of course, when compared to the hideous minus-9.2 of the Philadelphia 76ers and minus-9.3 of the New York Knicks, it looks pretty good.
Non-Division Record: 99-183
It's a good thing the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets can beat up on their intradivision rivals because neither comes close to sniffing .500 against the league at large. That Toronto, Boston and Brooklyn all sport more wins than losses in their Atlantic matchups is a testament to the willingness of both Philly and New York to serve as punching bags.
When Atlantic squads venture into the more competitive environs outside their division, it gets ugly. Only the Raptors (31-26) have a winning mark against non-Atlantic foes.
Bonus Selling Point: Building a mystery.
Maybe the Sixers aren't any fun to watch as a basketball team, but they're fascinating to follow as a science project. Every time they jettison one seemingly promising piece in order to add another, the mystery deepens, and the need for faith in process over visible progress intensifies.
Philadelphia is trying something here, and it's profoundly interesting.
5. Southeast Division
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Division Motto: "We might have four playoff teams. No, seriously."
Shining Example: Atlanta Hawks
Black Sheep: Orlando Magic
Average Simple Rating: -1.3
In a step up from the woeful Atlantic, the Southeast actually has two teams with positive SRS ratings: the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards.
Washington's plus-0.14 figure just barely qualifies.
Non-Division Record: 145-142
Buoyed by Atlanta's 44-15 mark, the Southeast has comported itself admirably against outside competition. Washington has won more than it has lost outside the division, and even the Heat Miami Heat are at a respectable 28-28.
Thanks to the Charlotte Hornets and Magic, though, the overall record here is just barely above .500.
Bonus Selling Point: There's something for everyone in the Southeast, as long as results in terms of actual wins and losses aren't a priority.
If you go down the list, the Hawks feature beautiful offense and stand as a symbol of intelligent systems trumping conventional stars. The Wizards have John Wall, who has done an admirable job of using his stardom to prop up what might be the league's most nonsensical, mid-range worshipping offensive system.
Think of those two as the yin and yang of offense in the Southeast.
The third-best team in the division is the Miami Heat, who boast Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and The Incredible Hassan Whiteside Story—which should be his new legal name. Miami has a chance to be very dangerous in the playoffs because of their terrifying guards and strong leadership.
The Charlotte Hornets are run by Michael Jordan, which is cool.
And the Orlando Magic, well...they're disappointing. But they have lots of fun young talent, led by two-time triple-doubler Elfrid Payton and routine double-doubler Nikola Vucevic.
If you look past the figures in the standings, this division has a lot to offer.
4. Northwest Division
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Division Motto: "Blowing away injury quotas since 2014." *
Shining Example: Portland Trail Blazers
Black Sheep: Minnesota Timberwolves
Average Simple Rating: -0.4
We're inching closer to our first division with a positive simple rating, but we haven't quite gotten there yet. Thanks to the Portland Trail Blazers' (plus-4.7) and Oklahoma City Thunder's (plus-3.1) strong figures, the ugly negatives posted by the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets don't torpedo the division as a whole.
The real story here is the Utah Jazz, who've been among the league's top teams since shipping Enes Kanter and his defensive woes to the Thunder, a team that needed some scoring.
With Utah sporting the Association's top defensive rating since Feb. 1, according to NBA.com, the Northwest actually has three solid clubs—even if the overall standings don't indicate the Jazz have earned that distinction.
Non-Division Record: 128-161
Speaking of records, it might seem unfair to slot the Northwest ahead of the Southeast. After all, the Southeast has actually posted a winning mark against opponents outside its division this year, while the Northwest has dug itself 33 games into the red.
That's more a function of schedule strength than an indicator of actual quality, though. Southeast teams only see foes from the vastly superior West twice a year, and their unbalanced schedules afford them extra shots at the horrific Atlantic and ho-hum Central.
Meanwhile, Northwest clubs have to fill out their extra games against the rest of the West.
Win-loss records are misleading in that sense, so we've given much more weight to SRS.
Bonus Selling Point: There's hope for the future.
If the Thunder can squeeze into the playoffs and get Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka healthy in time to make a run, there's a potential powerhouse in the Northwest.
Looking further into the future, the Jazz profile as a playoff team next season if they keep playing at the level they've established over the past two months. Given their youth, merely sustaining what they've done so far seems like a modest goal.
Utah should be even better in 2015-16.
*Injuries have destroyed the top end of this division. Durant, Ibaka and Russell Westbrook have all missed time in OKC. Wesley Matthews is out for the year with a torn Achilles. Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge have been playing hurt for most of the season.
If its stars were healthy, the Northwest would rank far higher than it does here.
3. Central Division
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Division Motto: "Blue collar, fancy hat." (LeBron is the hat.)
Shining Example: Cleveland Cavaliers
Black Sheep: Detroit Pistons
Average Simple Rating: .70
Defined by the physical, scratch-and-claw legacies of the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls, the Central Division is largely characterized by its toughness. Lest we forget, big-time talent has called the Central home as well—both then (Michael Jordan) and now (LeBron James).
In terms of simple rating, even the bottom two teams, Indiana and Detroit, aren't embarrassingly bad. The Pacers have held together with a minus-0.85 without Paul George, and Detroit's minus-1.82 is better than that of the lowest-ranked team in all but one other division.
Cleveland's plus-4.49 trails only Atlanta's in the East.
Non-Division Record: 146-142
Both the Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks have lost six straight, which puts a real dent in the Central's mark here. Fortunately, Cleveland has gone 38-21 against opponents outside the Central, while Chicago's 36-23 record isn't far behind.
One interesting note: Central teams have played each other to a virtual deadlock this year. The Cavs boast the best record against their division mates at just 8-5. Milwaukee coming in last at 5-8 is nothing to be ashamed of.
Bonus Selling Point: The Central has more top-to-bottom quality than any division we've covered so far, and it has the top title contender we've seen to this point: Cleveland.
The best this division has to offer is very, very good. At the same time, Detroit is the Central's worst outfit, and even it put together a major run after waiving Josh Smith and before losing Brandon Jennings to injury.
The other defining characteristic of the Central is a refusal to make excuses or get caught up in the moment.
Cleveland embraces process; the Bulls are practically allergic to rationalization; and Frank Vogel refuses to acknowledge how impressive it is that his team has stayed relevant without its best player, via Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald: "We had a lot of injuries during the toughest part of our schedule, which led to a lot of losses," Vogel explained. "We got healthy during one of the easiest parts of our schedule. That’s how it’s worked."
The Central Division: where resting on laurels is strictly forbidden.
2. Pacific Division
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Division Motto: "We have Stephen Curry, and you don't."
Shining Example: Golden State Warriors
Black Sheep: Los Angeles Lakers
Average Simple Rating: 1.88
As will be the case with every statistical measure in the Pacific Division, everyone else has the Golden State Warriors to thank. The Dubs own the league's top simple rating by a ridiculous margin; their figure of 10.3 is lightyears ahead of the No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers' 6.19.
No other NBA team rates higher than five.
I guess that means the Clips deserve at least a little credit for propping up the Pacific, too. They've posted elite offense all season and hardly missed a beat during the month Blake Griffin missed with an elbow injury.
Non-Division Record: 151-134
The Los Angeles Lakers have won two division games all season, and one of them came against the Warriors on Dec. 23—arguably the most improbable upset of the entire 2014-15 campaign.
The Dubs, as you'd expect, have contributed more than their fair share to the Pacific's success against the rest of the league. Their 46 wins are the most non-division victories of any team, and the Clippers and Phoenix Suns have combined to run up a 69-48 mark, which isn't half bad either.
In contrast, the Lakers and Sacramento Kings have gone 36-76 against the outside world.
Bonus Selling Point: It's about entertainment.
On the strength of the league-best Warriors and quietly excellent Clippers, the Pacific is head and shoulders above the other divisions covered so far. In terms of pure watchability, there's more excitement here than anyplace else.
You start with Curry, of course, who ignites arenas with scoring binges that sometimes don't feature shots within 25 feet of the basket. As a whole, the Warriors are a delight to watch, but Curry's the main draw.
The Clippers have Lob City and Chris Paul's incessant berating of referees. The Suns feature Eric Bledsoe and Gerald Green, no strangers to the highlight reels.
In Sacramento, the product itself isn't great, but DeMarcus Cousins is definitely the best player most of the already-sleeping East Coast has never seen.
And the Lakers, well...they're great to watch as long as you're into theater of the absurd.
1. Southwest Division
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Division Motto: "Are you not entertained?!"
Shining Example: Memphis Grizzlies
Black Sheep: New Orleans Pelicans
Average Simple Rating: 3.28
The Southwest Division features five fearsome gladiators who take turns trying to gut each other while intermittently dispatching lesser foes for fun.
In addition, it is unique in that every member has a positive simple rating, which speaks to the superior overall quality of play in the West's toughest grouping. When the "easiest" night for opponents involves going up against galaxy-devouring Anthony Davis, you know you're dealing with something special.
There are no pushovers here, no easy games.
There are, however, a pair of MVP candidates in Davis and James Harden, a defending NBA champ, a Dirk Nowitzki and a team of Grizzlies that play basketball as if they were actual Grizzlies (with slightly better defensive communication).
Non-Division Record: 192-99
Just look at that record! What else is there to say?
All five squads in the Southwest have winning marks against the rest of the league; no other division has more than three such teams. We've been harping on simple rating a lot, but at some point, advanced metrics that build in strength of schedule and point differential aren't necessary.
Wins and losses tell the story just fine in this instance.
Bonus Selling Point: The struggle is real.
Benjamin Hoffman of The New York Times explains just how unusual it is for a player with Davis' statistical profile to potentially miss the playoffs at this point in his career:
"Davis has a career player efficiency rating of 26.6. Should he keep that up through the end of the season, it will be the sixth best mark for a player through his first three years, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, David Robinson and Shaquille O’Neal. Of that group, only O’Neal had to wait until his second season to reach the playoffs.
"
This is Davis' third.
Blame the West as a whole if you want, but let's not overlook the fact that despite AD's dominance, the Pellies are just 7-5 in their division.
*All stats accurate through games played March 23.
