Are the Atlanta Hawks Running out of Gas?
Until now, there has been no reason to worry about the Atlanta Hawks.
That's all changed.
Maybe.
Time and time again, the Hawks have been deemed a suspect powerhouse, a regular-season phenomenon masquerading as a title contender. And time and time again, those questions have been quashed, those doubts dismantled.
But after a 114-95 meltdown against the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, losses are now piling up with season-high frequency just weeks before the playoffs. Thus, we have to ask: Are the Hawks merely slumping or actually running out of gas?
It's almost an unfair question to pose. Teams don't luck into the NBA's second-best record. Atlanta has not won more than 75 percent of its games by chance. At the same time, it's not winning with such volume anymore.
The Hawks are just 5-5 over their last 10 contests. Two of those hiccups have come against opponents miles below .500 in the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers.
Most recently, the Hawks have dropped three in a row, their longest losing streak of the season and one that comes at the worst possible juncture, inside 15 games to play.
Complicated still, this isn't a completely isolated downturn. They have struggled by their own standards for a while.
Prior to February, the Hawks won more than 83 percent of their games. Since then, when they were a brain-boggling 40-8, they're a far less impressive 13-9, during which time the offense and defense have noticeably regressed:
| Prior to Feb. 1 | 107.4 | 5 | 99.5 | 4 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Since Feb. 1 | 103.7 | 10 | 103.5 | 18 | 0.2 | 12 |
This backslide, while untimely for the Hawks themselves, is convenient for the most routine nonbelievers, backing myriad themes that were initially proved inaccurate or irrelevant.
There is no superstar on this team. They have no one averaging more than 17 points per game, no player perpetually recognized as a top-five talent at his position, no tried-and-true savior who has triumphed over the most intense of postseason trials.
To make matters worse, the Hawks are fading as the Cleveland Cavaliers rise. Though Atlanta still owns a firm hold on the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed, the Cavaliers are an NBA-best 27-7 since LeBron James returned from his two-week sabbatical on Jan. 13.
If a playoff matchup between these two teams began right now, Cleveland would be favored over Atlanta. That's a fact. It doesn't matter that the Hawks are 3-1 against James' superteam. The Cavaliers have been more convincing of late and, true to that rise, own better championship odds, per Odds Shark.
With the postseason fast-approaching, it won't be long before Atlanta's slump is depicted as something worthy of the skepticism they were thought to have liquidated—not unlike last season's top-seeded Indiana Pacers, who started 46-13 only to finish 10-13, stumbling into the playoffs as nothing more than a steppingstone for the second-place Miami Heat.
Ending up in similar searing-hot water is a very real danger for these Hawks, as Matt Moore of CBS Sports writes:
"Peaking too early is a concern, especially for a team with no playoff cache built up. They have no experience of playoff success to rely on, no reason to have faith that they can win. What the Hawks did early on in the season wasn't a fluke, they were legitimately incredible for three months. But there's a month go to before the playoffs and it's more likely that Atlanta clinches the top seed by default, and then rests, limping into the postseason and hoping to rediscover their early season dominance, than riding a wave of success in.
The Hawks are not last year's Pacers. The chemistry, makeup, style, and talent is completely different. But it does provide a cautionary tale, even if the Pacers did make the ECF. Atlanta has to get their edge back, because they're not sneaking up on anyone anymore. And the teams they'll start to face on April 18th will be desperate, hungry, and ready to take it to them if they don't rediscover their identity before then.
"
What, then, are they supposed to do? Can they even do anything?
To quote a certain historically great, unprecedentedly clairvoyant philosopher (Aaron Rodgers, duh): R-E-L-A-X.
The Hawks' present state is no more dire than the Golden State Warriors' pre-All-Star break recession that turned out to be absolutely nothing. They have earned the benefit of the doubt after all they've done.
Consider for a minute the teams they have lost to during their three-game tailspin: the Oklahoma City Thunder, Warriors and Spurs—all Western Conference playoff squads.
Now consider where each of those losses came: on the road.
And then consider how many of those contests saw the Hawks field their normal starting five: one.
Late-season free falls are no joke. But the Hawks aren't enduring a free fall. They're losing to mostly quality basketball outfits while playing at less than full strength.
"Every team I've been on—every team anywhere—goes through adversity," Al Horford said, per ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz. "It's how you handle it. That's what we're learning about ourselves right now."
Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver didn't play against the Sixers. Korver was sidelined for games against the Sacramento Kings, Warriors and Thunder with a broken nose. Even a majority of the starting five's minutes are down:
Most of this is by design. Injuries are unpredictable, but head coach Mike Budenholzer is monitoring minutes and managing rest, deliberately putting the Hawks at a disadvantage now for the sake of being healthy and refreshed later.
Indeed, their defensive decline is drastic and worth attention. But we're here splitting hairs and nitpicking not because there's cause for alarm, but because the Hawks are that good. Any and all concern is borne out of the new standards they have set.
Supreme skepticism, though, is a different animal. It's not the offshoot of a brief losing streak or weeks-long dip in production. Doubting their ability to contend now, after all they've done, touches upon a greater issue.
Some are just waiting for them to fail.
"It's almost like they are waiting for the Hawks to tumble," former Hawk and current analyst Dominique Wilkins said, per the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner. "It's like they don't want to give these guys credit. These guys can play. Period. It ain't no fluke."
These Hawks aren't supposed to be here, atop the Eastern Conference, contending for a title, keeping pace with the Cavaliers and the Warriors, among so many other touted contenders. And because they're not supposed to be here, there's still a sense, prevailing or not, that they don't belong.
Losses are magnified. A lack of conventional star power is an insurmountable obstacle. Defensive warts are incurable.
Slumps are damning evidence of an overhyped team not yet ready.
Once the playoffs actually begin, some version of the season-worn criticism could prove valid. This brand of star power may fall short, the defense may not recover, the team may get bounced long before the NBA Finals.
Not one of those possibilities is more likely now that the Hawks are battling. They are still for real, still contenders, with enough evidence to suggest their funk is temporary—if it's even a real funk at all.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate heading into games on March 23.
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