Buying or Selling Nerlens Noel as Future NBA Star
In just his first NBA season, Nerlens Noel has developed into a defensive mastermind, regularly redirecting attempted shots skyward while poking opponents' post-entry passes away from their intended targets.
But is excellence on one end of the floor enough to put Noel on the path toward future NBA stardom? That's the question hovering over Noel's head with his successful inaugural campaign nearing a close.
As gaudy steal and block rates indicate, Noel already stands in elite defensive territory. However, a lack of polish on the other end muddies the waters.
So with a 63-game sample in hand, it's time to examine if the flat-topped maestro's strengths and weaknesses are conducive to a climb up the Association's star ladder.
Defensive Credentials
Noel was billed as a defensive linchpin after 24 appearances at the University of Kentucky, and he's somehow blown expectations away after spending the entirety of last season rehabbing a torn ACL.
"There's real potential for Noel to one day evolve into the dominant defensive anchor general managers have salivated over since the dawn of man—his wingspan is longer than average—but right now he's too frail to bang against the league's beefy centers," Michael Pina explained over at Sports On Earth.
With a skinny frame (6'11", 228 lbs), fresh legs and an eager attitude, Noel burst out of the gate with a jittery disposition. He struggled to stay disciplined on pump fakes, got caught over-rotating and generally assumed the form of a wide-eyed doe.
But as Noel's grown more comfortable with the speed and size of the pro game, his impact on defense has been nothing short of superlative.
On the most basic level, the Philadelphia 76ers are significantly better with their 20-year-old Gumby impressionist protecting the paint. Through Tuesday night, the Sixers were posting a defensive rating of 99.7 with him on the floor, compared to 104.5 with him on the bench. That's the difference between grading out as the league's third-best and the 24th-best defense.
So yeah, he's important.
More specifically, Noel has emerged as a crucial cog because of how he disrupts possessions with his rare brew of size, length, speed and athleticism.
"He’s an extremely gifted athlete," Sixers head coach Brett Brown told Grantland's Ben Detrick. "At his height, there’s a speed and a quickness that produces havoc defensively. His ability to do things at the rim is extremely special."
At present, Noel is on pace to become the second rookie in league history to average better than 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. The other was David Robinson.
For a team that ranks tops in total steals and fifth in blocks, Noel continually sets the tone. Of late, his numbers have been particularly staggering.
And while the shot-blocking numbers have dipped since the All-Star break, Noel has a perfectly good explanation for the drop in production.
"I think people are coming to the basket a little less because I’m putting up shot-block numbers," Noel said, according to Detrick. "Intimidation serves its purpose."
Even with a gradual decline in emphatic rejections, Noel is the only player this season who's tallied at least 100 total blocks and 100 total steals.
Keeping with the historically significant theme, Bleacher Report's Dan Favale uncovered an outrageous factoid regarding Noel's defensive capabilities:
Among players defending at least seven shots at the rim per game, Noel ranks No. 9 overall in opponents' conversion rate (45.7), according to SportVU player-tracking data.
Those aren't just Rookie of the Year-caliber numbers. They're figures worthy of All-Defensive team consideration.
And while accusations of tanking have followed the Sixers all year like an ominous storm cloud, Noel has personified Brown's creed with a lunchpail attitude that has allowed Philadelphia to scratch out victories against the Washington Wizards, Atlanta Hawks and Sacramento Kings while pushing the short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder to overtime over the past three weeks.
An Offensive Work in Progress
Noel may lead all rookies in rebounds, steals and blocks, but scoring hasn't come easily to the defensive wunderkind.
Although his average shot distance sits just under six feet, Noel hasn't converted at a high rate all season. That'll happen with a slight build that isn't conducive to repeated post-up opportunities. In fact, Synergy Sports' play-type data indicates that Noel ranks in the 12th percentile in post-up scoring.
As a result, Noel has had to get creative. He's relied upon a unique combination of floaters, running hooks and one-dribble rack attacks to supplement the lobs that have represented his easiest route to offensive prosperity.
Noel's ability to finish with both hands has helped, as Brown told reporters prior to Wednesday's contest against the Detroit Pistons, according to The Intelligencer's Tom Moore:
But at the end of the day, Noel’s star status will hinge on the development of his jump shot.
Defense can carry Noel onto the fringe of the discussion, but contemporary superstars are required to score the ball in versatile and consistent manners. As far as big men are concerned, just look at Marc Gasol, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis. Not only can each of them score with his back to the basket, but each is capable of facing up, catching and shooting, putting the ball on the deck and cutting effectively without it.
For all of his flaws—and there are several—Noel has remained steadfast in his commitment to becoming a reliable jump-shooter. This season, he's attempted in excess of 180 jumpers, 100 more than any other type of shot. The bad news is they're dropping at a sub-20 percent rate.
However, there may be hope yet.
Since the Sixers parted ways with Michael Carter-Williams at the trade deadline, Noel has assumed a more prominent role in Brown's offense. In the process, he's taken considerable strides.
In every category, Noel's displayed improvement. And those statistical gains have been accompanied by a boost in confidence facilitated by the departure of Carter-Williams' ball-dominant ways.
"There’s a lot more room now,” Noel said of the offensive spacing, according to Detrick. "It’s opening certain things up. The ball moves a lot more, and I think guys are able to play a lot more fluid and smooth."
Brown even admitted he's been actively searching for more ways to get Noel involved over the last month, per Moore:
According to Sixers.com's Max Rappaport, Brown has been particularly encouraged by the evolution of Noel's shooting form:
"Even when he misses, you see him, he looks so confident stepping to the line and receiving a ball from a referee. He’s got his routine, he’s got his whole system in place, and he steps up with tremendous confidence… And then to see a little bit of carryover that we thought was going to happen to his 18-foot shot, with his form and his confidence, we’re seeing the early days, the early stages of him growing his game.
"
It's going to take countless reps for Noel to offer some semblance of consistency outside the paint, but the mere fact that he's starting to make nominal advancements offers a glimpse into what could be a prosperous future.
Verdict
Without question, Noel has the makings of a key foundational piece. And with refinement as a scorer and distributor, he could start breaking down barriers as one of the league's most compelling two-way contributors.
That said, he may never be a star by conventional standards, because nothing about his game is particularly traditional. Plus, defensive contributions don't rouse enthusiasm the same way smooth operating procedures on offense do.
"His hands are phenomenal," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote. "He is remarkably active on defense. He's an instinctive passer. He's getting comfortable as a finisher."
Those are all quality building blocks Noel can use to make the leap from young stud to full-blown star, but it's going to take a relentless commitment to excellence to quell concerns that he'll forever be an offensive liability.
The pieces are in place—now it's time to put the developmental puzzle together.
All statistics current as of games completed through March 17 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
